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南华早报

美国爆炸模拟针对中国所谓的秘密核试验US blast simulation targets China’s alleged secret nuclear testing

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美国开展了一次非核地下实验,以增强探测低当量核爆炸的能力,并明确将其与华盛顿怀疑中国于2020年实施的一次试验联系起来——北京否认了这一指控。

The US has conducted a non-nuclear underground experiment to enhance its ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions that it explicitly linked with a test that Washington suspects China carried out in 2020 – an accusation Beijing denies.

美国能源部周三宣布,国家核安全管理局(NNSA)在内华达国家安保基地开展了一项“地下非核化学高能炸药”实验,并称其目的是“提高美国探测低当量核爆炸的能力”。

The US Department of Energy announced on Wednesday that the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) conducted a “subsurface, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive” experiment at the Nevada National Security Site, which it said aimed to “increase the United States’ ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions”.

该实验未涉及任何核爆炸,而是收集数据,用于验证科学模型并完善美国核爆炸探测能力所依赖的关键算法。

The experiment, which did not involve any nuclear explosions, collected data to validate scientific models and refine algorithms critical to US nuclear explosion detection capabilities.

内华达此次试验凸显了核查疑似低当量核试验面临的局限。尽管华盛顿指控北京曾于2020年6月在罗布泊试验场秘密实施核试验,但北京否认了这一指控;国际核试验监测机构表示,现有地震数据无法令人信服地确定这些事件的原因。

The Nevada test highlights the constraints of verifying suspected low-yield nuclear tests. Despite Washington’s allegation that Beijing has covertly conducted a nuclear test at the Lop Nur testing site in June 2020, Beijing denied the accusation, and the international nuclear-test monitoring body has said the available seismic data cannot establish the cause of the events with confidence.

美国能源部的新闻稿称,此次实验将增进对地下起爆所产生的特征信号的了解,并强化探测任何外国核试验的“无可匹敌”能力。

The US Energy Department’s press release said that the experiment would enhance understanding of the signature produced by underground detonation and strengthen the “unmatched” capability to detect any foreign nuclear testing.

该部门表示,此次实验尤其着重于进一步提升美国探测“解耦”爆炸的能力——在这种核试验中,弹头是在大型地下空腔内起爆,而不是与周围岩石紧密接触,从而降低核爆探测传感器能够探测到的地震信号。

The department said that the experiment was especially focused on further enhancing the US capabilities to detect a “decoupled” explosion – a nuclear test where the warhead is detonated inside a large underground cavity instead of being in close contact with the surrounding rock, lowering the seismic signal that the nuclear detection sensors can detect.

特朗普政府指控中国于2020年6月在中国西北部的罗布泊核试验场秘密进行了一次低当量核试验,称中国违反了《全面禁止核试验条约》(CTBT)。

The Trump administration accused China of covertly carrying out a low-yield nuclear test in June 2020 at the Lop Nur nuclear test site in northwest China, alleging that China had breached the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普还下令,自1992年以来首次恢复美国的核试验。据他称,相关试验将于2025年10月在“平等基础上”进行。

US President Donald Trump has also ordered the resumption of US nuclear testing for the first time since 1992 on what he said was an “equal basis” in October 2025.

北京方面否认进行过任何秘密核试验。中国方面驳斥了这一指控,并坚称自己始终恪守《全面禁止核试验条约》的各项规定。据悉,中国最后一次公开承认的核试验于1996年7月在罗布泊试验场进行,此时距离中国签署《全面禁止核试验条约》仅两个月时间。

Beijing denies carrying out any covert nuclear testing Beijing denied the accusation and contended that it continues to abide by the terms of the CTBT. China’s last officially acknowledged nuclear test is known to have taken place at the Lop Nur site in July 1996, only two months before it signed the CTBT.

美中两国均于1996年签署了该条约,但均未予以批准,因此条约至今尚未生效。《南华早报》已就此事向中国驻华盛顿大使馆寻求置评。

Both the US and China signed the CTBT in 1996, but neither country has ratified the treaty, so it has not yet entered into force. The South China Morning Post has asked the Chinese embassy in Washington for comment.

美国军控协会执行主任达里尔·金博尔指出,美国国家核安全局的这项实验“无疑能提升”美国探测那些违反《全面禁止核试验条约》规定的“非法”核爆炸的能力;不过要有效探测并切实遏制核试验行为,仍需依靠国际合作。

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said that the NNSA experiment can “certainly enhance” US capabilities to detect “illicit” nuclear explosions that violate the CTBT, but detecting and actually deterring nuclear tests requires international cooperation.

他补充道,虽然目前《全面禁止核试验条约》组织所建立的国际监测系统具备强大的核试验监测能力,但极低当量的核爆炸仍有可能逃过监测。

He said that while the current Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation’s (CTBTO) International Monitoring System provides powerful nuclear test monitoring capabilities, very low-yield nuclear explosions may still escape detection.

“事实上,美国曾指控中国在2020年6月进行了低当量核试验,但根据《全面禁止核试验条约》组织监测系统及其他民用地震监测网络提供的资料,该日期发生的地震事件究竟是否由核试验引起尚无定论,”金博尔说道。

“Indeed, the US has accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in June 2020, but the available data from the CTBTO’s monitoring system and other civilian seismic networks about the seismic event on that date are inconclusive,” said Kimball.

“正因如此,拥有核武器的国家有必要开展技术性讨论,制定自愿实施的信任建立措施,以确保其以往的核试验场在当下及未来开展的所有活动均完全符合《全面禁止核试验条约》所规定的义务。”CTBTO指出,其国际监测系统并未在2020年6月22日探测到任何与核试验爆炸相符的异常信号——而华盛顿方面怀疑中国正是在该日进行了核试验;不过监测系统当天也记录到了两次间隔12秒出现的“极其微小的地震活动”。

“This is why it is so important for nuclear-armed states to engage in technical discussions to develop voluntary confidence-building measures to ensure ongoing and future activities at their former test sites are fully compliant with their obligations under the CTBT.”The CTBTO has stated that its International Monitoring System did not detect any event consistent with a nuclear test explosion on June 22, 2020 – the date that Washington suspects China of conducting the test – though it also said that there were “two very small seismic events” spaced 12 seconds apart on that day.

华盛顿对俄、中两国可能进行核试验存有“切实担忧”卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员童增表示,华盛顿确实担心俄罗斯与中国作为《全面禁止核试验条约》的签署国,却违背承诺实施了核试验。

Washington has ‘genuine concerns’ Russia, China conducted nuclear tests Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Washington has “genuine concerns” that Russia and China have conducted nuclear tests in violation of their commitments as signatories of the CTBT.

他指出,依据《全面禁止核试验条约》设立的监测系统“或许无法可靠地探测并辨别极其微小的核试验”;而美国国家核安全局开展的实验旨在提升美国自身“侦测他国秘密核试验”的能力。

He said that the International Monitoring System established under the CTBT “may not reliably detect and distinguish very small nuclear tests”, where the NNSA experiment aims to enhance Washington’s own ability to “detect covert foreign nuclear tests”.

童增强调:“此类能力可增强核威慑效力——因为它会让那些试图规避核试验禁令的国家意识到其行为终将被发现;同时也有助于美国更深入掌握他国核弹头现代化计划的进展。”

“Such a capability could strengthen deterrence by increasing concern among rival countries that prohibited nuclear testing could be detected despite efforts to hide it. It could also enable Washington to develop a better understanding of foreign nuclear-warhead modernisation programmes,” said Zhao.

“倘若中国确实试图通过违反《全面禁止核试验条约》规定的核试验来改进其核弹头设计,那么美国侦测能力的提升无疑会令此类企图面临更大阻碍。”近年来中国的核武库建设步伐明显加快。去年12月美国国防部发布的《中国军事力量报告》预测,到2030年中国人民解放军的核弹头数量有望突破1000枚。

“If China were indeed seeking to advance its nuclear-warhead designs through nuclear testing inconsistent with its CTBT commitment, improvements in US detection capabilities could complicate such efforts.”China has recently accelerated its nuclear stockpile. The Pentagon’s China military power report published in December last year estimated that the People’s Liberation Army remains on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030.

根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)的报告,截至2026年1月,中国的核弹头储备量预计最多可达620枚,且未来十年这一数字“有望持续增长”。

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China is estimated to have a nuclear stockpile of up to 620 warheads as of January 2026 and is expected to “keep growing over the coming decade”.

美国能源部前官员、国际原子能机构(IAEA)核检查事务主任罗伯特·凯利指出,此次实验的目的似乎是探测那些规模极小的核试验,以便获取有关“大型核弹运作原理”的数据,或是测试可用于干扰电子系统的新技术。

Robert Kelley, a former official at the US Energy Department and the director of nuclear inspections at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that the focus of the experiment seems to be to detect very small nuclear tests that could be used to collect data about “how a larger bomb may work” or to examine a new technology aimed at disruption of electronic systems.

他表示,该实验有助于美国掌握中国的核试验动态;此类探测工作自1963年起便持续进行,旨在发现规模越来越小的地下核试验。

He said the experiment would help the US understand Chinese testing, and that the tests are part of a longer effort to detect “smaller and smaller underground tests since at least 1963”.

如今担任斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所杰出副研究员的凯利称:“中国可能正在开展极为先进的核实验,甚至所谓的‘次临界实验’,以此深化对复杂物理原理的认知。”

“China might be doing very advanced nuclear experiments, even what are called ‘subcritical tests’ to polish very high-end complex physics knowledge,” said Kelley, who now serves as the Distinguished Associate Fellow at SIPRI.

美国军控与防扩散中心高级政策主任约翰·埃拉思指出,此次实验属于美国为监测各类核爆炸活动而开展的“长期努力”的一部分。

John Erath, senior policy director at the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said that the test was part of “long-standing efforts” by the US to identify any nuclear explosion.

埃拉思称:“这些举措旨在探测各类核试验,包括那些违反《全面禁止核试验条约》规定的试验。”

“Such efforts are designed to detect nuclear tests, including those that would be contrary to the CTBT,” said Erath.

“内华达州的此次实验专门用于提升对‘解耦式核爆炸’的探测能力,比如据称2020年在罗布泊发生的那种爆炸。这或许正是美国能源部此次实验与罗布泊相关活动存在关联的原因。”

“The Nevada experiment is specifically designed to improve detection of decoupled nuclear explosions, such as allegedly occurred at Lop Nur in 2020. This would likely be a reason for linking the current [US Energy Department] experiment to activity at Lop Nur.”