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厄尔尼诺现象是否意味着今年大西洋不会有飓风?Could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year?

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三十年来,九月(通常是大西洋飓风活动最为频繁的月份)首次没有出现任何飓风。

For the first time in three decades there has not been a single Atlantic hurricane in September, normally the most active month.

三十多年来,九月大西洋地区也首次没有形成任何飓风——而九月本应是飓风活动最为活跃的月份。

For the first time in more than 30 years, a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic throughout September - normally the most active month for hurricane activity.

这个异常平静的飓风季节仍在持续;随着季节只剩下两个月,飓风完全不会形成的可能性正在逐渐增加。

The eerily quiet season continues and with just two months left, there is an increasing possibility that no hurricanes will develop at all.

如果这种情况真的发生,2026年将成为卫星时代以来唯一一个没有飓风的大西洋飓风季节。

This would make the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season the only one in the satellite era without a hurricane.

造成这一现象的主要原因是厄尔尼诺现象:厄尔尼诺现象通常会抑制大西洋地区的飓风活动,但反而会加剧北太平洋东部的飓风活动。

The biggest reason for this is El Niño, which traditionally stifles activity in the Atlantic but brings a very active season in the eastern North Pacific.

由于厄尔尼诺现象的影响,专家们原本预测2026年大西洋飓风季节的活跃程度会低于正常水平。

The Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be quieter than normal as a result of this.

美国国家飓风中心在五月份预测,今年大西洋地区将形成8到14个具有名称的热带风暴,其中3到6个可能会发展成飓风,1到3个可能会成为强飓风。九月通常是热带风暴和飓风活动最为频繁的月份。

With a very strong El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six were predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three becoming major hurricanes. September is typically the most active month for tropical storm and hurricane activity.

然而,今年是自卫星时代(1960年代以来)以来,大西洋地区首次在九月没有形成飓风的记录。

But, this year marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era (1960s onward) where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic.

虽然今年大西洋地区尚未出现飓风,但北太平洋东部却异常活跃,九月共形成了4个具有名称的热带风暴:埃杜阿尔德(Edouard)、费伊(Fay)、冈萨洛(Gonzalo)和汉娜(Hanna)。不过,除了埃杜阿尔德之外,其他风暴都停留在大西洋的开阔海域。

While there have been no hurricanes forming in the North Atlantic so far this season, the Eastern North Pacific has been very active with above-average storms There were, however, four named tropical storms which formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna. All but Edouard stayed out in the open waters of the Atlantic.

美国国家飓风中心表示,至少在未来一周内,大西洋地区不会出现任何热带风暴或飓风的迹象。

The National Hurricane Center suggests there is no sign of any tropical storm activity or hurricane over the next week at least.

科罗拉多州立大学的天气预报专家也指出,强烈的厄尔尼诺现象很可能会扰乱大西洋地区的风场模式,从而导致未来两周内的飓风活动低于正常水平。

Forecasters at Colorado State University, who also monitor activity, suggest the strong El Niño is likely to disrupt wind patterns across the Atlantic and "likely result in below-normal activity" over the next two-weeks.

随着本季节的典型高峰期已经过去,天气趋势开始下降(将持续到11月30日),整个季节都没有发生任何飓风的可能性似乎越来越大。

As the typical peak of the season has passed and is now on a downward trend until 30 November, a season without a single hurricane is looking increasingly possible.

根据大西洋飓风的历史记录,自1914年以来,还没有出现过一个年份完全没有飓风的记录。不过那是在卫星监测技术出现之前的数据,因此无法确定当时是否真的没有飓风形成。那么,厄尔尼诺现象究竟如何影响热带气旋的形成呢?

In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914. However, this was pre-satellite monitoring so it is impossible to say with certainty that none formed. How does El Niño affect tropical development?

虽然厄尔尼诺现象本身只是热带太平洋地区的自然升温现象,但它会扰乱全球的天气模式。在厄尔尼诺期间,大西洋上空的高层风速会增加,从而导致风切变增强(即风速随高度的变化更加剧烈)。这种增强的风切变会破坏雷暴结构,使其无法发展成热带风暴或飓风。

While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe. As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic increase and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height. Increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.

与此同时,由于太平洋地区的海表温度升高且风场条件更加有利,该地区在厄尔尼诺期间通常会变得更加活跃。温暖的海水为风暴提供了更多的能量,使其更容易发展成热带风暴或飓风。

Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño because the sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns. The warmer waters give storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes.

今年,中东部太平洋地区的海表温度已经打破了历史纪录;目前的日平均海表温度甚至超过了2015年那次强烈厄尔尼诺现象期间的最高纪录。

This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures now exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.

到目前为止,该海域已经出现了17个被命名的风暴,其中9个属于飓风,其中7个属于强飓风。

There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major.

从这些风暴所产生的能量(即“累积气旋能量”)来看,本季节的活跃程度是正常年份的2.5倍左右。

据预测,厄尔尼诺现象会继续增强,并可能在11月或12月达到峰值。

In terms of the amount of energy these storms have produced - known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy - this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point.

由于这次厄尔尼诺现象异常强烈,大西洋地区的飓风活动异常稀少。正在发展的厄尔尼诺现象在预期峰值出现的前几周就已经达到了有记录以来的最强状态。那么,这种正在发展的厄尔尼诺现象将会如何影响大西洋地区的飓风季节呢?

El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December. New hurricane season record as 'historic' El Niño leaves Atlantic eerily quiet Developing El Niño becomes strongest on record weeks before expected peak How a developing El Niño will impact the Atlantic hurricane season