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彭博社

伯纳姆的豪赌让英国保守党看到了机会Burnham’s Big Bet Has the UK’s Tories Sensing an Opportunity

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随着安迪·伯纳姆在工党年度大会上那场激动人心的演讲带来的“糖分冲击”逐渐消退,英国备受冷落的保守党开始认为,他或许刚刚给了他们一个救赎的机会。

As the sugar rush of Andy Burnham’s barnstorming address to the Labour Party’s annual convention wears off, Britain’s unpopular Conservatives are beginning to think he might just have given them a shot at redemption.

周二在利物浦,这位首相让党内基本盘着迷,他誓言要对英国最具争议的政策难题施加影响力,从膨胀的养老金开支到他表示可能会推翻的脱欧公投。

The prime minister had his party base enraptured in Liverpool on Tuesday as he vowed to exert some agency over Britain’s most controversial policy dilemmas, from a ballooning pensions bill to the Brexit vote he said he might reverse.

工党党员们如饥似渴地接受了这些内容,而唐宁街10号则因即时民调而士气大振,民调显示公众更广泛地支持从养老金领取者身上节省开支,以及重新加入欧盟。与此同时,保守党将于本周末在伯明翰召开自己的大会,他们看到对手勾勒出一个左翼议程,并认为这可以被击败。

Labour members lapped it up, and No. 10 Downing Street was buoyed by snap opinion polling that suggests there’s wider public support both for making savings from pensioners and rejoining the European Union. Meanwhile the Conservatives, whose own conference in Birmingham starts this weekend, saw their opponent setting out a left-wing agenda that they think can be beaten.

一位保守党高级官员表示,随着右翼竞争对手奈杰尔·法拉奇的“改革英国党”陷入一系列资金丑闻,保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克现在怀揣着希望,想将下一次大选变成一场更传统的左翼与中右翼之争。

A senior Conservative official said that with right-wing competitor Nigel Farage’s Reform UK mired in a series of funding scandals, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch now harbors hopes of turning the next general election into a more traditional contest along left-wing and center-right lines.

该官员称,保守党将以经济增长、商业和稳健财政的捍卫者姿态参加那场选举。对于英国一些最大公司的高管来说,在利物浦确实出现了一些迹象:当伯纳姆谈论帮助商业时,他指的不是他们。

The Tories would go into that vote vowing to be the party of economic growth, business and sound money, the official said. For executives at some of the UK’s largest companies there were certainly indications, in Liverpool, that when Burnham talks about helping business, he’s not talking about them.

这位熟悉保守党思路的人士表示,该党将祭出其屡试不爽的剧本,指责工党没有可行的经济计划,同时计划增加税收、借贷和移民。

The person familiar with Tory thinking indicated the Party would dust off its tried-and-tested playbook and accuse Labour of not having a viable economic program while planning to increase taxes, borrowing and immigration.

保守党内部有人认为,这些论点将受到2022年利兹·特拉斯短暂执政期留下的长期后遗症的阻碍——当时一份命运多舛的“迷你预算”引发债券市场动荡,导致抵押贷款成本飙升。据多位官员透露,对保守党声誉的损害可能需要不止一个选举周期才能修复。

There are members of the Conservative party who think those arguments will be hampered by the long hangover from Liz Truss’ brief, market-roiling premiership in 2022 — when an ill-fated mini-budget let to a bond market revolt and sent mortgage costs soaring. The damage to the Tories’ reputation could take more than one electoral cycle to mend, according to several officials.

但也有人现在指望伯纳姆的大胆举措能加速他们重返执政地位。一位保守党官员表示,这位新工党领袖承诺改革英国选举制度,可能会成为一记严重的“乌龙球”。保守党将能够辩称,如果选民选择工党,伯纳姆的变革将终结通常能产生多数党政府的两党制,使国家陷入包含左翼边缘政党的永久联合政府之中。

But others now counting on Burnham’s boldness to accelerate their return to power. One Tory official said the new Labour leader’s pledge to reform Britain’s electoral system could be a major own goal. The Conservatives will be able to argue that if voters choose Labour, Burnham’s changes will put an end to the two-party system that typically results in majority governments, and leave the country with permanent coalitions that include parties on the left-wing fringes.

保守党坚决排除与改革党结成选举联盟,也不愿转向一种可能让他们别无选择、只能组建联盟的制度。

The Tories have adamantly ruled out entering electoral coalition with Reform, and don’t want to move to a system where they could have no choice.

巴德诺克领导的保守党从他们所看到的伯纳姆大会宣布内容光彩开始褪色中获得了一丝安慰。据彭博社周五报道,他引入老年社会化护理的激进计划部分资金未落实,并面临可能的延误。

Badenoch’s party has taken comfort from what they see as the shine starting to come off some Burnham’s conference announcements. His radical plan to introduce socialized care for the elderly is partly unfunded, and faces possible delays, Bloomberg reported Friday.

与此同时,英国和欧盟官员私下均对英国重返欧盟的现实性表示怀疑,尤其是在享受脱欧前那种优惠地位方面。

Meanwhile, both UK and EU officials have privately expressed skepticism as to whether it’s realistic that Britain rejoins the EU, especially on the favorable footing it enjoyed before it left.

伯纳姆在支持曼城足球俱乐部所有者的问题上陷入困境,尽管后者因严重违反财务规则遭到震惊性裁决。唐宁街不得不澄清他的言论,强调政府在该问题上的中立立场,这凸显了这位新首相在媒体采访中偶尔惹麻烦的倾向——这是他向英国选民承诺的“诚实”的另一面。

Burnham waded into some difficulties when he backed the owners of Manchester City Football Club, despite a seismic ruling that it had breached financial rules. Downing Street had to clarify his remarks to stress the government’s neutrality on the issue, highlighting the new prime minister’s occasional tendency to get himself into trouble in media interview — the flip side to the “honesty” he’s promised British voters.

贝登诺克面临的挑战在于,许多她自己的保守党支持者怀疑,她或目前这批一线保守党政治家是否具备赢得大选的能力。

The challenge for Badenoch is that many of her own Conservative supporters doubt whether she, or the current crop of frontline Tory politicians, has what it takes to win a general election.

在威斯敏斯特,贝登诺克近几个月的表现被认为有所提升,尤其是在每周与对手的首相答问环节中。然而,尽管她的个人评分有所上升,保守党整体在大多数民意调查中仍落后于工党和改革党。

Badenoch is viewed in Westminster as having improved her performance in recent months, especially during her weekly encounter with her opponent at prime minister’s question time. However, while her personal ratings have improved, the Tory party as a whole is still behind Labour and Reform in most opinion polls.

保守党官员认为伯纳姆是一位极具感染力的演讲者,表示他拥有“X因素”,这将使他在选举中难以被击败。

Tory officials see Burnham as a highly impressive speaker, saying he has an X-factor that will make him hard to defeat in an election.

党内许多人私下也赞同他在利物浦采取的大胆举措。一位官员透露,鲜有保守党人认为“三重锁定”机制(即保障国家养老金增长的机制)在目前形式下具有可持续性,且许多人希望与欧盟建立更紧密的关系。

Many in the party also privately agree with the bold steps he took in Liverpool. Few Tories see the triple lock mechanism that boosts increases to the state pension is sustainable in its current form, and many want a closer relationship with the EU, an official said.

一些保守党人希望贝登诺克——她最近刚进行过影子内阁改组——再次调整核心团队。党内冉冉升起的新星克莱尔·库蒂尼奥被看好将在下次大选前取代新任命的影子财相安德鲁·格里菲斯。由于格里菲斯在特拉斯政府时期曾担任财政部初级大臣,工党认为他们已找到了攻击路线。

Some Tories want Badenoch, who only held a shadow cabinet reshuffle recently, to change her top team again. Claire Coutinho, a rising star in the party, is being tipped to replace newly appointed shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith before the next election. With Griffith occupying a junior ministerial position in the Treasury under Truss, Labour think they have found their attack line.

所有这些让许多保守党人在进入党代会时情绪低落。他们预计,必须在2029年中期前举行的下届大选最可能的结果是:伯纳姆联合其他进步政党获胜。如果他改变选举制度,将使保守党在未来很难赢得议会多数席位。

All that leaves many Tories going into their conference downhearted. They see the most likely outcome for the next election, which has to be held by mid-2029, as a Burnham victory in coalition with other progressive parties. If he changes the electoral system, that would make it very hard for the Tories to win a parliamentary majority in future.

一位保守党官员表示,这也使得下届大选成为几十年来最重要的一次选举。

That also makes the next election the most important in decades, one Tory official said.