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丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格的勇气与不祥之兆的黑暗纪事Daniel Ellsberg’s Stories of Courage and Foreboding

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丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格的第九部也是最后一部著作于今年春天出版,距离他的逝世已经过去了三年。这个时机再合适不过了——正值政治动荡的时期,而埃尔斯伯格正是在这样的背景下首次崭露头角的。这部著作的出版,旨在纪念这位杰出的、却长期被忽视的美国英雄。

Daniel Ellsberg’s ninth and final book, , was published this spring, three years after his passing, and this is a fitting moment—a time of political upheaval much like the one in which Ellsberg first made his mark—to commemorate this remarkable and neglected American hero. The book is a collection of reflections and reminiscences lovingly assembled by Daniel’s son Michael Ellsberg and longtime aide Jan R. Thomas.

这本书汇集了埃尔斯伯格的思考与回忆,由他的儿子迈克尔·埃尔斯伯格和他的长期助手简·R·托马斯精心整理而成。书中内容主要围绕他在1971年揭露“五角大楼文件”事件中的关键作用展开。“五角大楼文件”是一份关于美国越南战争的绝密历史记录,埃尔斯伯格当时作为兰德公司(RAND Corporation)的分析师参与了该文件的编写工作。

Much of it pivots off his signature role in the 1971 leak of what became known as the Pentagon Papers, a top-secret history of the US war in Vietnam that he had helped write as a RAND Corp. analyst. The Pentagon Papers were a searing 20-year record of governmental incompetence and duplicity, and thanks to the ensuing Supreme Court battle between and the Nixon Administration, their publication is remembered as a dazzling triumph of an independent press.

这些文件揭露了政府在越南战争期间的无能与欺骗行为。由于随后与尼克松政府之间的法律斗争,这些文件的公开被视为独立新闻媒体的辉煌胜利。但正如新书所揭示的那样,埃尔斯伯格远不止是一个“越南战争时期的叛逆者”;他还利用自己作为分析师和活动家的身份(据估计他总共被逮捕了约90次),来呼吁人们关注举报者的困境以及核战争的潜在威胁。然而,这些重要的议题如今在很大程度上已被我们忽视了。

But as the new book shows, Ellsberg was always much more than a Vietnam-era renegade. He also used his stature as an analyst and activist—he estimated he was arrested some 90 times—to call attention to the plight of the whistleblower and the looming menace of nuclear war, both immensely worthy causes that we have largely consigned to the outback of our national conscience.

我是在埃尔斯伯格晚年时认识他的——当时我刚刚成为加州大学伯克利分校新闻学院的院长。令我惊讶的是,尽管他居住在距离校园仅两英里的地方,这位美国新闻史上的关键人物却与我们学院或任何其他机构都毫无关联。至今我仍不清楚其中的原因。不过他接受了我的邀请,加入了学院的顾问委员会,并且更令人欣慰的是,他在随后几年里还多次担任我们新生硕士课程的开场演讲嘉宾。

I got to know Ellsberg in the Teens, toward the end of his life, when I became dean of the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism. I was surprised to discover that, although he lived not two miles from campus, this key figure in a defining moment of US journalism history had no relation to our program or anyone else’s, near as I could tell. I still don’t know why that was, but he accepted my invitation to join the school’s advisory board and, even better, stepped up in successive years as a keynote speaker at our orientations for incoming master’s students.

在联邦政府不断攻击媒体独立性的背景下,“五角大楼文件”事件再次有力地证明了新闻媒体的独特价值与影响力。

At a time of unrelenting attacks on media independence by the federal government, the Pentagon Papers affair is a powerful reminder of what the press uniquely can do.

他在那里发表了演讲。那时他已经八十多岁了,身材瘦削、脊背挺直,穿着一套深色西装和领带——在伯克利校园里这样的穿着非常罕见。他说话声音轻柔,没有借助任何笔记,准确地回忆起了一些我们学生根本无法辨认出的事件和人物:罗伯特·麦克纳马拉、拉斯克院长,以及“春节攻势”(Tet Offensive)。然而,学生们听得全神贯注。当埃尔斯伯格的演讲结束后,他们并没有离开,而是留下来提问,继续聆听他的讲述。

There, he shone. He was already well into his 80s, slender and straight-backed, and wearing a dark suit and tie—a rarity on the Berkeley campus. He spoke softly, without notes, recalling with precision events and names our students had no prayer of recognizing: Robert McNamara, Dean Rusk, the Tet Offensive. Yet our students were riveted. Instead of heading for the exits when Ellsberg was done, they stayed behind to ask questions, and listened as he remembered.

他始终否认自己的行为加速了战争的结束;尽管在他2023年去世后的一些讣告中确实提到了这一点。埃尔斯伯格从不相信这种说法。那些文件所记录的历史事实其实早在文件被泄露前三年就已经发生了。这些文件并未涉及理查德·尼克松总统和亨利·基辛格国务卿在战争期间的不当行为(这些行为同样令人羞耻),而这场战争本身还持续了将近四年才结束。我认为,学生们被吸引的,并不是因为他是一位创造了新闻史的人物,而是因为他们看到了一个谦逊且具有道德勇气的人。

He steered well away from claims that his Pentagon Papers leak hastened the end of the war, although that was a refrain in some of the obituaries that followed his death in 2023. Ellsberg never believed any such thing. The papers reflected a historical record that ended nearly three years before they were leaked. They didn’t cover the subsequent and no less disgraceful management, by President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, of a war that wouldn’t end for nearly four more years. The students were drawn, I believe, not by proximity to somebody who’d made journalism history, but to what they perceived as a man of humility and moral courage.

埃尔斯伯格对自己行为的解释总是非常严肃、低调的。他决定揭露五角大楼的那些令人羞愧的秘密,是因为受到了湾区反战活动家兰迪·凯勒(Randy Kehler)的影响——凯勒曾告诉埃尔斯伯格:“我宁愿入狱,也不会配合征兵制度。”埃尔斯伯格的这些揭露行为引发了白宫的秘密行动(包括成立了臭名昭著的“水管工小组”,这一行动最终导致了水门事件的发生,严重动摇了尼克松的总统地位)。

然而,这些后果既不是他刻意追求的,也不是他预料之中的;他从未将自己视为导致尼克松下台的关键人物。

Ellsberg’s explanations for his actions were always somber and self-effacing. He’d decided to leak the Pentagon’s mortifying secrets to follow the example of Bay Area antiwar activist Randy Kehler, who’d told Ellsberg he was going to prison rather than cooperate with the draft. That Ellsberg’s unprecedented disclosures prompted clandestine measures by the White House—which included creating the infamous “Plumbers Unit” that spawned the failed Watergate break-in and fatally undermined the Nixon Presidency—was a consequence he neither sought nor anticipated, and he never accepted credit for bringing Nixon down.

他在 2019 年对艾米·古德曼(Amy Goodman)说:“我想对年轻人说的是:不要重蹈我的覆辙。不要等到炸弹真的落下、又有成千上万的人丧生之后,才去做那些我多年前(1964 年甚至 1961 年)就该做的事情——也就是揭露那些被政府隐瞒的危险真相。无论需要付出什么代价、承担什么风险,都一定要这么做,因为这可能关系到整个世界的命运。”

he told Amy Goodman on in 2019, “My message to [young people] is: Don’t do what I did. Don’t wait until the bombs are actually falling or thousands more have died before you do what I wish I’d done years earlier, in ’64, or even ’61 on the nuclear issue, and that is reveal…the dangerous truths that are being withheld by the government at whatever cost to yourself, whatever risk that may take. Consider doing that because a world’s worth of lives may be at stake.”

从他的散文和反思中可以看出,他既是一个才华横溢的人,也是一个内心充满痛苦与挣扎的人。他的父母是东欧犹太人,后来成为了所谓的“狂热基督教科学派(Fanatic Christian Scientists)”的信徒;埃尔斯伯格直到 12 岁进入寄宿学校之前,从未看过医生。他本身是个有音乐天赋的孩子,但他的母亲却强迫他走上一条她心目中的“职业钢琴家”之路——她每天下午都让他在家练习四到六个小时,周六则练习八个小时。

The self-portrait that emerges from the essays and reflections in is of a man both brilliant and haunted. His parents, ethnically Eastern European Jews, became what he described as “fanatical Christian Scientists”—Ellsberg never saw a doctor until he went to boarding school at the age of 12. He was a gifted musician, and his mother steered him with an obsessively heavy hand toward a life she imagined for him as a concert pianist.

这样的生活持续了十年,直到他 15 岁那年,他与底特律交响乐团合作的音乐家们一起演奏了贝多芬的作品。之后,他的母亲为他找了一位要求更高、经验更丰富的音乐老师。这位老师在初步了解他的背景、音乐知识和演奏技巧后,断言埃尔斯伯格虽然很有天赋,但无法成为职业钢琴家。这个判决对埃尔斯伯格的母亲来说是个沉重的打击,但对埃尔斯伯格本人来说却是一个解放的时刻。

From an early age she kept him home from school so he could devote his afternoons to practice, four to six hours a day, eight hours on Saturdays. That was his routine for a decade until, at age 15, he performed Beethoven’s with musicians hired for the occasion from the Detroit Symphony. His mother then moved him to a more demanding and knowledgeable music teacher who, after an introductory lesson and what seemed to be a careful inventory of his background, musical knowledge and performing skills, declared that Ellsberg had great talent but no future as a professional pianist.

他继续跟随这位新老师学习音乐,但他的母亲因此悲痛欲绝。两个月后,她和埃尔斯伯格的妹妹在一场车祸中不幸身亡,而他的父亲(当时正在开车)也受了重伤。从那以后,除了在大学里上过一门音乐理论课外,埃尔斯伯格再也没有碰过钢琴,直到 25 年后才重新开始弹奏钢琴。

It was a heartbreaking verdict for his mother but an emancipatory moment for him. He carried on playing for the new teacher, but his mother was devastated. Two months later, she and Ellsberg’s young sister were killed in a car crash, and his father, who was driving, was seriously hurt.

在重新讲述这个故事时,埃尔斯伯格否认了自己在其中扮演的任何主动角色;他始终强调:“那是尼尔·希恩如何获得五角大楼文件的。”他经常回想起自己曾经放弃的音乐事业,但并非出于对母亲的歉意,而是对她那种强迫性的影响力的惊讶——正是这种影响力将他束缚在母亲的梦想之下,使他不得不为她服务了十年。他对自己的顺从感到羞愧;这种羞愧感后来在他职业生涯中再次出现——当时他遇到了一些智力出众的人,这些人尽管清楚地认识到某些政策是致命的、徒劳的、且在道德上站不住脚的,却依然热衷于执行这些政策。

After that, apart from a music theory class in college, Ellsberg didn’t touch the piano again for 25 years. In ’ retelling of the story, Ellsberg is denied agency: It was “How Neil Sheehan Got the Pentagon Papers.”He returns often to the legacy of his abandoned musical path, not with regret at having disappointed his mother but in wonderment at her coercive powers, which trapped him in a decade of servitude to her dream. He was shamed by his compliance, a prelude to the eager obedience he would observe later in his career among people of dazzling intellectual capacity who nonetheless enthusiastically carried out policies they recognized were murderous, futile, and morally indefensible.

埃尔斯伯格毕业于底特律著名的克兰布鲁克学院,并在哈佛大学攻读经济学。之后他加入了海军陆战队,服役了三年,被任命为少尉,并逐渐晋升为步枪连的指挥官。在英国剑桥大学学习一年后,他回到哈佛大学完成了经济学博士学位。他在博弈论这一深奥的学术领域取得了显著成就,提出了一个至今仍被广泛讨论的突破性理论——即“埃尔斯伯格悖论”(Ellsberg Paradox)。该理论揭示了人们倾向于回避那些成功概率不明确的决策。

Ellsberg graduated from Detroit’s prestigious Cranbrook School and majored in economics at Harvard before joining the Marines, where he served for three years, was commissioned a lieutenant, and rose to command a rifle company. After a year in England at Cambridge University, he returned to Harvard and finished his PhD in economics, distinguishing himself in the arcane field of game theory with a breakthrough concept now known as the Ellsberg Paradox, which describes the inclination of people to avoid choices whose odds of success are ambiguous.

直到埃尔斯伯格偶然提到这个悖论时,我才第一次听说它的存在;他解释说,这个理论因其创新性而被列为学术研究的重点课题。正是由于他的学术成就以及他在哈佛大学与国家安全领域的广泛人脉,他引起了著名智库兰德公司(RAND Corporation)的注意。1958年,苏联发射人造卫星引发了人们对核竞争加剧的恐慌,同时也暴露了核威慑战略的混乱与矛盾,埃尔斯伯格便以暑期顾问的身份加入了兰德公司。

I had never heard of the paradox until Ellsberg mentioned it in passing one day, noting that it was considered enough of a conceptual innovation to be the subject of scholarly conferences. Still, his work and notable Harvard national security connections brought him to the attention of the influential think tank known as the RAND Corp., where he started as a summer consultant in 1958, soon after the Soviet sputnik launches triggered a panic over the intensifying nuclear rivalry and the incoherence of the strategic doctrine of deterrence.

在接下来的十年里,埃尔斯伯格将自己在兰德公司(RAND)、五角大楼和国务院的智力资源主要投入到核战略研究以及越南战争的恶化问题上。关于越南战争的详细情况,他在2002年出版的著作中有精彩的描述。在当前这个新闻媒体的独立性与公民监督功能不断受到联邦政府攻击的时代,《五角大楼文件》事件有力地证明了媒体所具有的独特作用:该事件揭露了一代高层领导人的致命欺骗行为,而这种揭露是任何其他民间社会组织都无法完成的。

Ellsberg divided his intellectual efforts for RAND, the Pentagon, and the State Department over much of the next decade between nuclear strategy and the deepening disaster in Vietnam. (Much of the latter is recounted in his riveting 2002 book, ) At a time when the news media’s independence and civic value are under unrelenting assault by the federal government, the Pentagon Papers affair is a powerful reminder of what the press uniquely can do. It was an instance of unquestionable public illumination that exposed the lethal deceptions of a generation of top leaders, exposure that no institution of civil society other than the press could ever have delivered.

虽然新闻媒体常常被夸大为这些揭露行动的“英雄”,但实际上这些行动的推动者正是埃尔斯伯格及其合作伙伴;最终,共有19家报纸刊登了埃尔斯伯格提供的材料——即便当时他面临被刑事起诉的命运。

True, the news media claim an undeservedly heroic role in engineering the disclosures that were actually driven by Ellsberg and his helpmates, but in the final analysis the media did come through—in all, 19 newspapers published material Ellsberg originated, even while a criminal prosecution seemed inescapable.

如今令人不寒而栗的是:在数字时代的冲击下,许多报纸已经消失或衰落,那些揭露真相的人却不得不在监狱中服刑多年(而埃尔斯伯格从未入狱);特朗普政府还以各种监管和商业手段压制新闻媒体,仅仅是因为它们在某些意识形态问题上持有不同观点(而这些观点远没有公然反抗战争行为那么严重)。人们不禁会想:如果没有这些媒体的努力,《五角大楼文件》是否还能公之于众呢?

It’s chilling to wonder now—when most of those newspapers have withered or died in the drought of the digital age, whistleblowers serve years behind bars (Ellsberg spent not a single night in jail), and the Trump administration has unleashed regulatory and commercial pressure on news media for ideological sins far less egregious than frontal defiance over an ongoing war—whether the Pentagon Papers would have ever seen the light of day.

即使今天有人仍有勇气将这些信息公之于众,也很难再找到另外18家新闻机构愿意加入这一行动。特朗普及其追随者们不断采取报复措施:他们起诉CBS及其顺从的母公司(CBS的母公司因剪辑了某位政治对手的电视采访内容);他们经常以某些评论“令他们不满”为由威胁吊销相关媒体的播出许可证;他们要求解雇那些被认为“不够支持他们”的媒体从业者;他们将他们不喜欢的新闻机构赶出五角大楼和白宫;此外,他们还利用调查资源来破坏媒体所有者的经营基础。

可以想象,如果有人试图反抗他们的压迫(就像当年埃尔斯伯格那样),将会面临多么严厉的报复措施。

Even if today’s still found the courage to publish, the likelihood of finding another 18 news organizations to join in is far from certain. And with Trump and his minions suing CBS and its compliant parent company over the editing of a political rival’s TV interview, routinely threatening to revoke broadcast licenses over comments that displease him, demanding the dismissal of on-air talent he deems insufficiently supportive, ousting news outlets he doesn’t like from the Pentagon and White House, and using investigative resources to undermine the business fundamentals of media owners, the range of reprisals that would undoubtedly be used to punish resistance on a Pentagon Papers scale is almost unimaginable.

即使在当时,将这些信息公之于众也并非易事;而埃尔斯伯格从那些本应是他的盟友的人那里所遭受的对待也极其残酷。

Getting the story out wasn’t easy even back then, and the treatment Ellsberg endured from his supposed allies was far from gentle.

在2015年的一次采访中,《五角大楼文件》报道的首席记者尼尔·希恩(Neil Sheehan)讲述了这些文件最终是如何被公开的。希恩在去世前一直对这一事件保密。从他的回忆中可以清楚地看出,埃尔斯伯格在过去两年里付出了巨大的努力:他首先费力地将数千页文件复印下来,然后多次向那些反对战争的参议员求助,希望这些文件能够被正式记录在国会记录中。最终,在绝望之下,埃尔斯伯格联系了希恩——这位他在越南战争期间就认识的老友,也是他之前曾向其透露过相关信息的合作伙伴。

In a 2015 interview Neil Sheehan, lead writer on ’ Pentagon Papers coverage, described how the papers came to be published, a story Sheehan embargoed until after he died. It was impossible to discern from his remembrance how hard Ellsberg had worked over the previous two years to find a way to make the papers public, first laboriously photocopying the thousands of pages and then appealing repeatedly to a roster of antiwar senators in hopes of getting the material entered into the Congressional Record. Finally, in frustration, he approached Sheehan, a stalwart whom he knew in Vietnam, and to whom he had leaked stories previously.

然而在后来的叙述中,埃尔斯伯格却被剥夺了主体性:相关报道题为《尼尔·希恩是如何获得五角大楼文件的》,这些文件被形容为“轰动性独家新闻”,甚至“堪称一代人以来最重大的新闻发现”。事实上,是埃尔斯伯格主动邀请希恩查阅并做笔记,但前提是希恩必须保证会全面使用这些资料。可希恩无视这一条件,在妻子、作家苏珊·希恩的协助下偷偷复印了文件。

报社工作人员花了数周时间处理这些副本,而希恩则多次对报社的出版计划撒谎,导致埃尔斯伯格及其妻子帕特里夏在出版前夕仓促藏匿那些可能暴露罪证的文件。

But in ’ retelling, Ellsberg is denied agency: It was “How Neil Sheehan Got the Pentagon Papers,” which were framed as a “blockbuster scoop” and “arguably the greatest journalistic catch of a generation.”In fact, Ellsberg had invited Sheehan to review and take notes from his copy of the papers but refused to give him a copy until he had assurances that intended to use them fully. Sheehan ignored those conditions and surreptitiously made his own photocopies with the help of his wife, writer Susan Sheehan. staffers worked on those copies for weeks, and Sheehan lied repeatedly about the paper’s plans, leaving Ellsberg and his wife, Patricia, to scramble on the eve of publication to hide boxes of incriminating documents.

1971年6月,最高法院的裁决阻止了尼克松政府阻止文件发表的企图,却并未阻止埃尔斯伯格及其同案被告安东尼·鲁索因违反保密法而受审。直到法院获悉白宫“水管工”小组闯入埃尔斯伯格的精神科医生办公室一事后,这起诉讼才被撤销。在这长达两年的诉讼过程中,埃尔斯伯格与鲁索并未得到那些他们曾协助过的媒体的任何经济支援。

The Supreme Court’s June 1971 ruling in blocked the Nixon administration’s attempt to halt publication of the papers but did nothing to prevent Ellsberg and his co-defendant, Anthony Russo, from being tried for violating secrecy laws—a prosecution that was thrown out only after the court learned of the White House Plumbers’ burglary of Ellsberg’s psychiatrist’s office. During the two-year prosecution process Ellsberg and Russo got no financial support from the media they had helped.

埃尔斯伯格始终对媒体对待那些最勇敢、最坚定的消息源时表现出的矛盾甚至敌意感到困惑。他的崇拜者之一、维基解密创始人朱利安·阿桑奇曾在2010年向多家新闻机构提供了极具新闻价值的资料,结果却遭到该报执行主编比尔·凯勒撰写的一篇极具恶意的 报道的“礼遇”——文中将阿桑奇描述为任性、脾气暴躁且身上有异味。我曾问过埃尔斯伯格,为何媒体常常如此严苛地对待举报人。“他们不信任我们,”他答道。

Ellsberg was always puzzled by the ambivalence, even hostility, that news outlets characteristically show toward their gutsiest and most determined sources. One of his admirers, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who had turned over extremely newsworthy material to and other news organizations in 2010, was thanked with an especially venomous cover story authored by the paper’s own executive editor, Bill Keller, describing Assange, among other things, as petulant, ill-tempered, and foul-smelling. I once asked Ellsberg why the media often treats whistleblowers so harshly. “They don’t trust us,” he said.

尽管如此,仍有不少人效仿埃尔斯伯格的做法来揭露那些毫无必要的保密行为,而他们所遭受的后果远比埃尔斯伯格严重得多。阿桑奇遭到美国执法与情报机构追捕长达14年,历经各种形式的监禁,最终他的案件被搁置,他也被遣返回澳大利亚;他的线人切尔西·曼宁则入狱七年,其中一年处于单独监禁状态,后来她的35年刑期得以减刑;之后她又因拒绝出庭作证指控阿桑奇而再服刑一年。

Still, others have followed Ellsberg’s example in exposing unwarranted secrecy, and many suffered consequences incomparably worse than he did. Assange was pursued by US law enforcement and intelligence agencies for 14 years, enduring various forms of confinement before his case was essentially discarded and he was repatriated to Australia; his source, Chelsea Manning, served seven years in prison, including a year in solitary, before her 35-year sentence was commuted, and later served yet another year for refusing to testify against Assange.

然而,这些举报者以及其他类似人士在解释自己行事的动机时,几乎无一例外都会以《五角大楼文件》和丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格作为例证。对于那些揭露高层欺骗行为以及公民有责任揭发此类行为的理念而言,埃尔斯伯格堪称其历史上的道德先驱。

Yet it is almost invariably the Pentagon Papers and Daniel Ellsberg that these and other whistleblowers point to when they explain and justify what motivated them. A global consciousness about high-level deception and the duty of citizens to expose it claims Ellsberg as its historical and moral forebear.

关于核武器问题,埃尔斯伯格在去世前两个月对《泰晤士报》说道:“如今的局势比我一生中任何时候都要危险。”

Regarding nuclear weapons, “we’re in a more dangerous situation than any time in my lifetime,” Ellsberg told The Times two months before his death.

在举报领域,埃尔斯伯格的遗产仍在延续。不过他毕生致力于的另一项事业却始终未受到应有的关注。他希望人们明白:真正令他忧心忡忡的并非越南战争。

When it comes to whistleblowing, Ellsberg’s legacy flourishes. But the second focus of his career-long engagement remains orphaned. It wasn’t Vietnam, he wants us to understand, that accounted for his most consuming fears.

在2017年出版的书中,埃尔斯伯格提到:1969年秋至1970年8月期间,他复印了存放在兰德公司保险柜里的所有绝密文件,数量大概有1.5万页,而《五角大楼文件》仅占其中的7000页。他冒着职业生涯毁于一旦的风险去揭露的那些文件,大多是记录了他所认为的人类面临的最大威胁——核武器及其使用可能性;最令他忧心的是,政府为防止核武器被误用而采取的措施既杂乱无章又完全不足。

In his 2017 book, , Ellsberg says that between fall 1969 and August 1970 he had photocopied the entire top-secret contents of his safe at RAND, perhaps 15,000 pages, of which the Pentagon Papers constituted only 7,000. Most of the documents he was risking his career to expose consisted of notes and documents involving what he believed was the greatest threat to humanity, nuclear weapons the prospects for their use, and, most harrowing, the government’s ramshackle and entirely inadequate measures to prevent their unintended use.

那些被窃取的机密资料中,有一些与他20世纪60年代初在兰德公司任职时的亲身经历相吻合——当时他负责检查美国空军在北太平洋各前沿基地存放的核武器。虽然这些第一手资料在书出版时早已过去数十年,但其内容依然引人入胜且极具现实意义;而核战争有可能在极低的指挥层级上被触发这一可能性,也依旧令人不寒而栗。

Some of that purloined material aligned with things he’d witnessed as a RAND employee during the early 1960s, inspecting nuclear weapons at US Air Force forward operating bases in the Northern Pacific. That firsthand reporting, his basis for , was decades old by the time the book was published, but the details were enthralling and pertinent, and the likelihood that nuclear war could be unleashed at a preposterously low level of command authority remained terrifyingly plausible.

在肯尼迪政府执政期间,时年30岁的埃尔斯伯格作为分析员向多位美军高级将领询问后得出估算数据:若美国实施其“全面核战争综合作战计划”,预计苏联、中国和欧洲的死亡人数将超过6亿。这一数字还尚未计入美国自身遭受的难以估量的损失以及随之可能引发的全球性核冬天。

The estimates Ellsberg coaxed from the heads of US military officers as a 30-year-old analyst during the Kennedy administration pegged the expected death toll from America’s Single Integrated Operational Plan for General Nuclear War at more than 600 million people in the Soviet Union, China, and Europe. That excluded the incalculable harm to the United States, and the global nuclear winter that might well follow.

埃尔斯伯格所探讨的根本性战略难题在2017年并未改变,如今依然如此:核武器具有难以想象的杀伤力,且本质上就是极其危险的。核威慑的逻辑要求确保任何在军事冲突中使用核武器的对手最终都会被摧毁。然而,唯有在敌方攻击尚未被证实迫在眉睫之时,美国的核武器仍能顺利发射,核威慑才能得以实现。

The fundamental strategic conundrum Ellsberg addressed was unchanged in 2017 and is sullenly unchanged now: Nuclear weapons are unimaginably lethal and inherently, irremediably unsafe The logic of deterrence requires a certainty that anyone who uses them in a military confrontation will themselves be destroyed. But deterrence could be assured only if America’s weapons are sure to be launched while the capability to use them remains—that is, when an enemy attack is not proven imminent.

发生灾难性误判的可能性始终无法避免。埃尔斯伯格在书中指出,1962年的古巴导弹危机期间,这一灾难险些发生——幸亏当时有一名犹豫不决的苏联潜艇艇长没有发射获准使用的核鱼雷。这种随时可能发生的先发制人核打击的可能性,与核威慑赖以存在的“确保敌方必遭毁灭”这一前提密不可分。

The possibility of a catastrophic error is inescapable. It was narrowly averted during the 1962 Cuban missile, Ellsberg noted in , only thanks to a single, hesitant Soviet submarine skipper who did not launch a nuclear-tipped torpedo he had been authorized to use. The hair-trigger possibility of preemptive first use is inextricable from the guaranteed destruction that deterrence rests upon.

正如马龙·白兰度在影片中饰演的那个叛逆上校一般,埃尔斯伯格“当时正被培养成公司里能担任要职的人才”。

Like Marlon Brando’s rogue colonel in , Ellsberg “was being groomed for one of the top spots in the corporation.”

1969年末至1970年初,埃尔斯伯格抄录了1.5万页属于绝密级别的兰德公司文件。起初,他最想公开的是那些与核计划相关的资料。反战活动家凯勒曾因拒服兵役而激励了埃尔斯伯格;凯勒告诉他,他认为那些有关越南战争的资料中鲜有新内容可披露,但关于美国核安全措施严重缺失的文件则极具震撼性且发人深省。不过埃尔斯伯格经过权衡后认为,《五角大楼文件》会产生最直接的影响——他回忆道:“当时炸弹正落在那里。”

When Ellsberg copied those 15,000 pages of top-secret RAND documents in late 1969 and early 1970, his initial priority was to publicize those pertaining to the nuclear program. Antiwar activist Kehler, whose draft resistance had inspired Ellsberg, told him he believed there were few new revelations in the Vietnam War materials, whereas the documents regarding the nation’s shocking lack of nuclear safeguards were new and harrowing. Still, Ellsberg calculated that the Pentagon Papers would have the most immediate impact—“It’s where the bombs are falling right now,” he recalls saying So, he entrusted the notes and documents on strategic weapons controls to his brother, with the expectation that he would make them public after the Pentagon Papers leak ran its course.

于是,他将这些有关战略武器管控的笔记与文件托付给弟弟,期望在《五角大楼文件》引发的社会反响逐渐平息后由他公之于众。然而由于一连串意外,这些兰德公司的核武器相关文件最终遗失或损毁。直到后来,一些与这些文件内容大体相当的资料被解密,埃尔斯伯格才得以动笔撰写书籍。

Ultimately, through a series of mishaps, the RAND nuclear weapons files were lost or destroyed. It was only after what Ellsberg deemed largely equivalent material was declassified that he finally was able to write the book.

如今,核武器再度成为众人避而不谈却又无法忽视的话题。在乌克兰问题上,人们反复提及核武器:有人担心俄罗斯会为向北约发出警告而把所谓的战术核武器部署至白俄罗斯。在台湾问题上,一个存在数十年之久的疑问也再度引发讨论:美国是否仍会坚持动用核武器来阻止中国入侵?中东地区同样如此:本世纪内美国已两次以“大规模杀伤性武器威胁”为由发动战争,最近一次的理由便是伊朗的核计划。

Nuclear weapons are once again the ghost at the banquet. They are mentioned repeatedly in connection with Ukraine, when the possibility was raised that Russia would move so-called tactical weapons to Belarus as a warning to NATO, and with Taiwan, around the decades-old question of whether the United States would stand by its willingness to use nukes to deter a Chinese invasion. Also the Middle East, where, for the second time this century, the US has gone to war using fears of weapons of mass destruction—most recently Iran’s nuclear program—as a rationale.

与此同时,美国正斥资1.7万亿美元对老旧的核武库进行史无前例的全面升级。这一浩大工程是在媒体几乎保持沉默、公众对此一无所知且毫无全国性讨论的情况下悄然推进的。

And the United States has embarked on an unparalleled $1.7 trillion reconstruction of its aging nuclear arsenal a vast project undertaken before a mostly slumbering media and a wholly ignorant public, with no national debate of any kind.

“我们正身处有生之年最为危险的境地,”埃尔斯伯格在去世前两个月这样说道。

“We’re in a more dangerous situation than any time in my lifetime,” Ellsberg told two months before he died.

由阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦、罗伯特·奥本海默以及原子时代的一批先驱共同创立的《原子科学家公报》所维护的“末日时钟”,如今显示的核战争爆发概率已逼近午夜85秒——这一数值也是自1947年该时钟设立以来最接近“午夜”的一次。

The doomsday clock maintained by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—the group created by Alfred Einstein, Robert Oppenheimer, and the founding wizards of the atomic age—that indicates the likelihood of nuclear war now stands at 85 seconds to midnight (detonation), the closest it has been since the clock debuted in 1947.

简而言之,埃尔斯伯格未能遏制人类面临的最严峻威胁,这成了他心中挥之不去的遗憾。不过,他所得出的悲观结论更多源于人性而非政策因素:那些他曾一同受训、共事,又在大半生中与之抗争的精英阶层——这群纪律严明、忠诚可靠且尽职尽责的专业人士——其实极易堕落腐败。

In short, Ellsberg’s inability to rein in humanity’s gravest threat became an abiding source of disappointment. But the darkness at the heart of his conclusions in has less to do with policy than with people—with the endless corruptibility of the elite class of disciplined, loyal, and committed professionals he trained alongside, collaborated with, and then, for much of his life, fought against.

需要记住的是,埃尔斯伯格在职业生涯早期曾接近国家权力巅峰,是能直接向高层官员进言的人物。正如《现代启示录》中叛变的特种部队上校库尔茨一般,“他原本也被培养成能担任国家要职的人才”。然而后来他目睹同僚们接连栽跟头:他们未能应对摆在面前的道德挑战,错误地将自身的良知视为坚守原则的权威依据,却没意识到那不过是他们为完成那些受赏才去执行的可疑任务而扭曲后的产物——他们没能做到将灵魂置于事业之上。

It’s important to remember that Ellsberg was, early in his professional life, close to the pinnacle of national power, a man with the ear of the country’s top officials. Like Kurtz, the Special Forces colonel who went rogue in , “he was being groomed for one of the top spots in the corporation.”But then he watched his peers stumble and fall. He witnessed their failure to meet the moral challenges before them, to wrongly trust their own consciences as sources of principled authority as opposed to their corrupted reflections of the dubious missions they were rewarded to pursue—their failure to put their souls ahead of their careers.

“切勿将大规模杀伤性武器交到那些身处庞大层级化组织高层、心地善良且动机良好的人手中,以免他们把这些武器当作解决自身狭隘、自私且短视问题的手段,从而危及他们自认为的成功或掌控地位,”埃尔斯伯格在其最后一部出版作品的结语中恳切说道。“在如此高压的处境下,这些人极有可能意识到:从长远来看,为了国家乃至全人类的战略利益,他们必须动用手头的一切手段。”

“Do not give decent, well-intentioned humans at the apex of large, hierarchical organizations instruments of mass destruction that may be wielded as solutions to narrow, parochial, egotistical, short-run problems, which challenge their perceived success or position of control,” Ellsberg pleads in the conclusion of his final published work. “These men are all too likely to discover, in such circumstances of duress, that the long-run strategic interests of their nation and humanity demand and compel their use of all instruments at their command.”