
总统几乎拥有不受制约的权力,但这些权力实际上被那些持有特定意识形态观点的人以及特殊利益集团所控制;正是这些集团决定了共和党的候选人提名。在这些人的眼中,个人利益远比那些真正遵守法律和宪法的候选人更为重要。如果不立即进行改革,美国将继续走向宪法制定者们最害怕的局面——一种民粹主义的暴政。
The nearly unchecked powers of the president are controlled by the ideologues and special interests who dictate Republican nominations. Self-serving agendas take precedence over the selection of candidates with a record of abiding by the rule of law and the Constitution. Without urgent reforms, America will continue to succumb to what the Framers of the Constitution most feared — a populist tyranny.
导致这一局面的有两个关键因素:第一个因素是:自20世纪70年代以来,对候选人提名的控制权发生了变化。过去,那些致力于通过经验丰富的候选人赢得大选的共和党官员,逐渐被那些只关心自身狭隘利益、且意识形态立场偏激的选民群体所取代。由于直接初选中的投票率较低,那些反对移民、堕胎、增税以及政府监管的激进分子(包括福音派基督徒)得以控制全国代表大会的代表,而这些代表最终会决定总统人选。
Two consequential changes have brought us to this crossroads. The first: Control over nominations has shifted since the 1970s. Party officials committed to winning general elections with experienced candidates gave way to relatively small and ideologically unrepresentative segments of the electorate intent on advancing their narrow agendas. The relatively low turnout for direct primaries enabled evangelicals, members of the Christian right as well as virulent opponents of immigration, abortion, taxes, and government regulation to control the delegates to national conventions who select presidential candidates.
这些变化彻底颠覆了宪法原本旨在“过滤民众声音”并保护当选官员(尤其是总统)的制度设计。亚历山大·汉密尔顿在1788年曾解释说,选举人团的设立目的是“确保总统职位始终由具备卓越能力和美德的人担任”,从而防止那些倾向于使用阴谋、诡计和腐败手段的人上台。
These changes overturned the Constitution’s design to “filter” the voice of the people and insulate elected officials, especially presidents. The Electoral College, Alexander Hamilton explained in 1788, was designed to produce “a constant probability of seeing the station filled by characters preeminent for ability and virtue” and preventing the selection of presidents inclined toward “cabal, intrigue, and corruption.”
特朗普就是这个噩梦的象征:他在2016年的初选中仅获得了不到40%的选票,却在众多竞争对手中脱颖而出赢得了提名。这与共和党初选的典型情况相符——四分之三的选民自认为是保守派或温和派,而特朗普正是这些选民中的多数派。相比之下,在2016年的大选中,约有三分之二的选民认为自己是温和派或自由派。
President Trump is the nightmare. He won the 2016 nomination by scraping together less than 40 percent in early primary contests among a crowded field of opponents. As is typical of Republican primaries, three out of four voters identified as very or somewhat conservative and Trump won pluralities there. In contrast, about two-thirds of voters in the 2016 general election described themselves as moderate or liberal.
特朗普公然无视法治与宪法的行为,在共和党初选及11月的总统大选中并未对选民产生实质性影响。在那个党派忠诚度极高的时代,几乎所有共和党人都机械地支持他。其余选民(包括独立选民)的投票决定主要受到以下因素的影响:对希拉里·克林顿的反感、对奥巴马政府的反对、对经济与文化现状的不满,以及希望推动政治变革的愿望。
Trump’s open disregard for the rule of law and the Constitution was not a serious consideration for voters in the Republican primaries and the November general election. Nearly all Republicans robotically backed him in an era of intense party loyalty. A plurality of the remaining voters, including independents, were swayed largely by their reaction against Democrats: dislike of Hillary Clinton, opposition to the Obama administration, economic and cultural dissatisfaction and a desire for political change.
另一个重要的变化是总统权力得到了扩大,使其能够在国内外事务中单方面采取行动。无论是民主党还是共和党,都将这种“权力膨胀”的趋势带入了白宫。冷战爆发后,总统们常常独自决定派遣军队参与冲突、在海外实施暗杀行动或达成国际协议;这些权力滥用行为大多未能受到政党及其内部网络的有效监督。政党通常会将那些鼓吹极端言论的候选人排除在总统候选人名单之外,而是倾向于提名那些具有有效执政经验的候选人。
The second momentous change has been the expansion of presidential powers to act unilaterally in domestic and international affairs. Democrats and Republicans left a loaded gun in the Oval Office. With the onset of the Cold War, presidents routinely acted alone to send troops into real or potential conflicts, conduct assassinations abroad, and reach international agreements. Extreme abuses of power were mostly skirted by the vetting of political parties and their networks. They weeded out demagogues from the pool of presidential candidates and nominated, in most cases, candidates with a track record for governing effectively.
然而特朗普的出现却打破了这一传统——他是由一些极端意识形态派系推选上台的,且没有经过那些重视法治的资深官员或党内人士的严格审查。结果就是:在缺乏有效制衡机制的情况下,总统的权力变得极度膨胀。如今,要拯救这个共和国,就必须立即改革总统提名程序,以剔除那些真正威胁宪法精神的候选人。虽然两党都需要进行改革,但共和党的问题尤为紧迫——因为该党缺乏来自温和派捐赠者及党内内部人士的制衡力量。
Then came Trump — a candidate propelled to the cusp of election by narrow ideological factions without the peer review of senior elected and party officials who are attentive to the rule of law. The result: imperial power is unmoored at a time that lacks protections against unqualified and unscrupulous presidents. Saving the republic now requires urgent reforms of the nomination process to filter out the demagogues that most worried the Constitution’s Framers. Changes are needed in both parties but most urgently in the Republican Party that lacks the informal checks from moderate donors and insiders.
一个必要的改革起点是恢复并扩大那些未与任何政党派系结盟的共和党代表的独立性;这些代表通常更关注维护党的整体声誉。
A necessary starting point is to restore and expand the independence of unpledged Republican delegates: the national and state GOP leaders focused on protecting the party’s national reputation.
直到2012年,仍有近五分之一的共和党代表大会代表可以在第一轮投票中自由选择任何总统候选人,而不论他们所在州的初选或党团会议结果如何。到了2016年,这类“未承诺支持任何特定候选人的代表”的比例下降到了6.9%;同时,全国性和州级的党规也越来越严格地限制了他们的投票行为,使他们必须遵循初选的结果。
Until 2012, nearly a fifth of convention delegates were free to vote for any presidential candidate on the first ballot regardless of their state’s primary or caucus results. By 2016, the proportion of unpledged delegates was slashed to 6.9 percent and national and state party rules increasingly bound them to primary results.
虽然迫切需要对这些制度进行改革以恢复共和党提名过程的公平性,但必须尽快采取行动。该党应继续维护初选选民在候选人选拔中的核心作用,同时也要赋予党领导人在某些情况下(即当某些激进分子支持的候选人可能威胁到法治和宪法时)调整提名方向的权力。不过,那些意识形态强硬的人肯定会制造各种借口,声称这些改革会削弱民主制度。
Urgent reforms to restore balance to the Republican nomination process are possible but must be achieved soon. The party should maintain the central role of primary voters while also returning the ability of party leaders to create an off-ramp if activists favor a candidate who is a threat to rule of law and Constitution. Ideologues will throw up a predictable smoke screen, claiming that the reforms weaken democracy.
事实上,初选选民仍将在候选人选拔过程中占据主导地位。但在某些极端情况下(即当激进分子试图强行推选持有极端政策观点的候选人时),党领导人必须保留一定的灵活性,利用他们手中的少数代表来推动大会做出更符合宪法精神、更符合大多数美国人意愿的决策。如果不立即采取强有力的措施,2028年出现另一个充满报复心、毫无原则的总统候选人的可能性确实非常大。
The truth is that primary voters will continue to dominate the selection of candidates. But in cases where activists are on the verge of imposing a candidate with extreme views about policy and the rule of law, party leaders must reserve a limited option to leverage their small fraction of delegates to tilt a convention toward alternatives better suited to our constitutional system and the views of most Americans. Unless immediate and vigorous action is taken, the nomination of another vengeful and unprincipled presidential candidate is a very real possibility in 2028.
劳伦斯·R·雅各布斯(Lawrence R. Jacobs)是明尼苏达大学汉弗莱公共事务学院(Humphrey School of Public Affairs)的政治学教授,同时担任该校“沃尔特·F·蒙代尔与琼·蒙代尔政治研究讲座”(Walter F. and Joan Mondale Chair for Political Studies)的主持人以及“政治与治理研究中心”(Center for the Study of Politics and Governance)的主任。作为美国艺术与科学学院的成员,他已撰写或编辑了19本关于美国政治的著作。
Lawrence R. Jacobs is the Walter F. and Joan Mondale Chair for Political Studies and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs. A member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, he has written or edited 19 books on American politics.