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人工智能可能加剧一种常见的认知陷阱AI Could Worsen a Common Cognitive Trap

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人类最卓越的文化成就之一,便是将解释工作分工合作。当我的女儿发烧时,我通过咨询儿科医生解决了问题,他给出的可能诊断是流感。与医生不同,我无法向女儿详细解释流感引发发烧的具体机制,也无法准确说明她为何必须持续补充水分。但我所获得的解释——大致是“因为流感所以发烧”——正是治疗她所需要的。

One of humanity’s most remarkable cultural achievements is the division of explanatory labor. When my daughter came down with a fever, I solved the problem by consulting a pediatrician, who shared a likely diagnosis of the flu. Unlike the doctor, I wasn’t able to tell my daughter much about the mechanism by which the flu leads to fever, or exactly why it was so important for her to keep drinking fluids. But the explanation I acquired—roughly “fever because flu”—was what was needed to treat her.

社会正是依靠这种高效的信息共享方式运转的。正如协调专业技能可以简化从别针到汽车乃至报纸等各类产品的制造过程一样,协调专业知识也有助于解答各种疑问。即使你不具备制造汽车的专业知识,仍然可以驾驶汽车;而尽管儿科医生的理解远超我本人,我也从他的解释中受益良多。

Society runs on this efficient type of information sharing. Just as coordinating specialized skills can streamline the fabrication of products—be it pins or cars or newspapers—coordinating specialized knowledge can facilitate the answering of questions. You can drive a car even if you don’t have the expertise to manufacture one yourself, and I benefited from the pediatrician’s explanation even though his understanding far exceeded my own.

医学、科学、工程和商业领域的诸多进步,都得益于这种“分而治之”的方法;事实上,它推动了人类知识在不同社群间以及随着时间的推移不断积累。但这种方法也让我们容易陷入“理解幻觉”:我们将他人的理解误认为自己的理解。

We can thank this divide-and-conquer method for many advancements in medicine and science, engineering and commerce; in fact, it has helped drive the accumulation of human knowledge across communities and over time. But it also leaves us susceptible to illusions of understanding: cases in which we mistake the understanding of others for our own.

人类在判断该向谁请教什么问题时,这种能力是经由进化、文化和个人经验共同精细塑造的。即便是3到5岁的儿童,也更倾向于认为应该向医生而非修理工咨询如何治疗骨折,而向修理工而非医生咨询如何修理爆胎。随着孩子逐渐长大,他们对专业知识的理解也会变得更加深入。例如,在2004年发表于《儿童发展》杂志的一项研究中,研究人员让11岁和12岁的儿童探究为什么网球在人行道上比在草地上更容易弹起。

Humans’ sense of whom to ask for what is fine-tuned by evolution, culture, and personal experience. Even 3-to-5-year-olds are more likely to say that you should ask a doctor rather than a mechanic about fixing a broken arm, and a mechanic rather than a doctor about fixing a flat tire. As kids mature, they develop an even deeper understanding of expertise. In a 2004 study published in Child Development, for example, 11- and 12-year-olds tasked with finding out why tennis balls bounce better on the sidewalk than on grass were more likely to suggest asking someone who knows why bubble wrap keeps glass things from breaking (which is also relevant to physics) than someone who knows why tennis balls come in cans of three (which just happens to also involve tennis balls).

这些孩子更倾向于建议去询问那些了解气泡膜为何能保护玻璃物品免受破损的人(这与物理学也相关),而不是那些知道网球为何以三个装一罐出售的人(这恰好也涉及网球)。他们选择请教对象时,依据的是基本原理,而不仅仅是表面的相似性。

Their choice of whom to ask was based on fundamental principles—not just superficial similarities.

只要投入充足的时间和精力,接受多年的教育,并保持对学习的浓厚兴趣,我们大多数人都会从对科学或其他专业领域知之甚少的小孩,成长为……对科学或其他专业领域依然知之甚少的成年人。即便是那些在某一领域掌握了专业知识的人,也不太可能在许多其他领域也具备同样的能力。因此,识别外部专业知识的能力对成年人而言,并不比对孩子而言更重要。

With plenty of time and care, years of education, and a healthy appetite for learning, most of us transition from children who know little about science or other expert domains to … adults who know little about science or other expert domains. Even those of us who acquire expertise in one area are unlikely to do so in many others. So the ability to track outside expertise is no less important for adults than it is for children.

我们需要知道谁能够解释孩子的发烧、植物的枯萎、遗嘱中的条款,或是松饼为何未能完美膨起——而研究结果表明,成年人在这方面表现得相当不错。(当然,从整体人群来看,我们并非总能做到完美:许多人仍然会轻信朋友、网红以及自封专家给出的错误建议。)德国的一项研究发现,即便是非科学专业的大学学生,也能很好地判断出哪些类型的科学知识适用于不同的科学主题。

We need to know who can explain a child’s fever, a wilting plant, a clause in a will, or an imperfect soufflé—and research finds that adults seem to do this pretty well. (As a population, of course, we do not do this perfectly: Plenty of people trust in bad advice from their friends, influencers, and self-proclaimed experts.) A study from Germany found that even college students who aren’t science majors do a good job of guessing which kinds of scientific expertise are relevant to different scientific topics.

到目前为止,一切顺利。问题出现在我们与他人的思维连接变得过于无缝时,我们开始分不清自己的理解止于何处,他人的理解又始于何时。当我们从专家那里得到一个解释——比如“发烧是因为流感”——我们可能会错误地认为自己比实际掌握得更多。

So far, so good. The trouble arises when our connections to other minds become a little too seamless, and we start to lose track of where our own understanding ends and another’s begins. When we receive an explanation from an expert—such as “fever because flu”—we might mistakenly conclude that we’ve learned more than we really have.

事实上,研究发现,仅仅能够接触到专家的答案,就可能导致理解的错觉。在一组研究中,参与者阅读了关于各种虚构科学发现的内容,并报告自己对每种现象的理解程度。例如,一些参与者读到了以下简短的段落:2014年5月19日,《地质学》期刊上的一项研究报道了一种新岩石的发现,科学家们已经对其进行了全面解释。

In fact, research finds that merely having access to expert answers can lead to illusions of understanding. In one set of studies, participants read about various fictional scientific discoveries and reported how well they understood the phenomenon described in each one. For instance, some participants received the following short passage: A May 19, 2014, study in the journal Geology reported the discovery of a new rock that scientists have thoroughly explained.

这种岩石与方解石相似,但在没有光源的情况下也会发光。该研究的作者Rittenour、Clark和Xu完全理解其工作原理;他们对这种矿物非凡的外观进行了描述,并概述了未来的实验计划。

The rock is similar to calcite, yet it glows in the absence of a light source. The authors of the study, Rittenour, Clark, and Xu, fully understand how it works; they provided a description of the remarkable appearance of the mineral and outlined future experiments.

这段文字实际上并未解释这种岩石为何会发光。然而,在阅读之后,参与者却认为自己有所理解:作者将其称为“一种具有传染性的理解感”,因为他们似乎从文中描述的科学家们那里“感染”了这种理解。而当参与者读到科学家们“尚未解释”这种发光岩石,并且“尚不理解”其工作原理时,这种传染性的理解感便消失了;参与者对自己理解程度的评分几乎跌至最低。

The passage didn’t actually include any explanations about why the rock glows. And yet, after reading the passage, participants thought they had some comprehension: what the authors call “a contagious sense of understanding,” because they seem to have caught it from the scientists described in the passage. When participants instead read that scientists “have not yet explained” the glowing rock, and that they “do not yet understand” how it works, there was no contagious sense of understanding; participant ratings of their own understanding nearly hit the bottom of the scale.

最近的研究表明,这种“理解感”甚至能够影响我们与技术之间的互动。在一项研究中,参与者了解到某家银行推出了能够提供投资建议的“机器人顾问”。他们还得知,关于该机器人顾问运作原理的说明已发表在某科学期刊上。不过,一半的参与者被告知该说明可在期刊网站上查阅,另一半则被告知该期刊设有付费订阅门槛。那些认为能轻松获取说明的参与者,表示自己对该机器人顾问的运作方式有了更清晰的理解,并且也更愿意亲自使用它。

More recent work has shown that a contagious sense of understanding can even infect our interactions with technology. In one study, participants learned about a bank’s “robo-adviser,” which could provide investment recommendations. Participants also learned that an explanation of how the robo-adviser works had been published in a scientific journal. But half were told that the explanation was available to them on the journal’s website, and half were told that the journal had a subscription paywall. Those who thought the explanation was available to them reported a better understanding of how the robo-adviser works. They also reported a greater likelihood of using the robo-adviser themselves.

这些研究结果引出了一个亟待解答的问题:随着人工智能助手、聊天机器人及其他技术让信息获取变得更加便利,这种“理解错觉”是否会愈发普遍呢?一些初步证据显示答案正是如此。多项研究均发现,当人们能通过互联网获取信息后,往往会高估自身的知识储备水平。

These results raise a pressing question. As information becomes more accessible through AI assistants, chatbots, and other technology, will these illusions of understanding become even more pronounced? Some early evidence suggests that the answer is yes. Several studies have now found that when people have information available to them through the internet, they overestimate how much they themselves know.

例如,在另一项研究中,参与者被要求解释某些事物的运作原理,比如拉链的工作原理;其中一半人被允许上网“核实相关细节”。随后所有参与者都被问及自己能否很好地回答一些无关问题,比如“为何多云的夜晚气温较高”。那些在研究前半阶段能上网查阅资料的参与者,在后续测试中明显认为自己更有能力做出详细解释——这一结果说明:能够随时获取大量信息这一体验,会强化“这些知识其实就在自己脑中”的错觉。

For example, in one study, participants were asked to explain how something works, such as a zipper, and half were given access to the internet to “confirm the details of the explanation.”All participants were then asked how well they could offer detailed answers to unrelated questions, such as why cloudy nights are warm. Those who had access to the internet in the first part of the study rated themselves significantly more capable of explaining in the second part—suggesting that the experience of having more knowledge at their fingertips supported the illusion that the knowledge was in their own heads.

与快速且信息丰富的聊天机器人互动只会加剧这种错觉,但其中也伴随着一个令人担忧的转折:目前的证据表明,当涉及像 ChatGPT 和 Claude 这样的大型语言模型时,人类并不擅长判断谁掌握了哪些知识。例如,在一项研究中,当参与者了解到某个大型语言模型能够正确回答经济学相关问题时,他们便认为该模型也能正确解决基础代数问题——但他们的判断是错误的。

Interactions with fast and informative chatbots will only heighten such illusions, but with a worrisome twist: The evidence so far suggests that humans aren’t great at tracking who knows what when it comes to large language models such as ChatGPT and Claude. For instance, when people in a study learned about an LLM that could correctly answer a question about economics, they expected it to correctly solve a basic algebra problem—but they were wrong.

而当他们得知某个大型语言模型能够回答道德哲学问题时,他们又认为该模型能够识别出某个情境中哪个角色做出了不道德的行为——结果再次错误。参与者几乎可以肯定地将人类大脑中知识如何聚集的假设套用到了人工智能系统上,而在两种情况下,这种假设都让他们产生了误解。

And when they learned that an LLM could answer a question about moral philosophy, they thought it could identify which character in a scenario had done something immoral—but they were wrong again. Participants almost certainly applied assumptions about how knowledge clusters in human minds to the AI system, and in both cases, this led them astray.

人工智能系统所犯的错误类型很可能会随着技术的发展而改变,而人类对人工智能的直觉也可能会随着这些变化而不断演变。当我们把“解释者”的群体从人类专家扩展到聊天机器人和其他形式的人工智能时,我们确实为人类理解创造了新的机会,但同时也增加了产生错觉和错误的风险。

The kinds of errors that AI systems make are likely to change as AI develops, and human intuition about AI will probably evolve alongside these changes. As we expand our community of explainers beyond human experts to chatbots and other forms of AI, we create new opportunities for human understanding.

本文改编自 Tania Lombrozo 的新书《我们为何提问:解释的科学以及人类追求理解的驱动力》(Why We Ask Why: The Science of Explanation and the Human Drive to Understand)。

But we also introduce an increased potential for illusion and error. This article was adapted from Tania Lombrozo’s new book, Why We Ask Why: The Science of Explanation and the Human Drive to Understand.

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