尽管政府向年轻夫妇提供现金奖励以鼓励生育，香港的出生率仍在持续下降。这正加速社会老龄化进程：预计到2028年，每四人中就有一人年龄在65岁或以上。除非扭转这一趋势，否则到2040年代，每三名居民中将有一名年龄在65岁或以上。有预测显示，到2046年，长者人数将达274万。
Despite a government cash incentive for young couples to have children, Hong Kong’s birth rate continues to fall. It is driving the ageing of a society in which one in four people is projected to be 65 or over by 2028. Unless the trend is arrested, one in three residents is projected to be 65 or over by the 2040s. One projection puts the number of elderly residents at 2.74 million by 2046.
诚然，并非全是坏消息。人口老龄化的一个原因是人均寿命延长。但事实依然是，我们预计将有相对更少的年轻人去赡养更多的长者，而相对更多的人可能需要长者照护服务。
Granted, it is not all bad news. One reason for the population ageing is increased longevity. But the fact remains that we can expect proportionately fewer younger people to support more elderly residents, while proportionately more people may need elderly care.
因此，三年前政府推出了2万港元的“生育奖励计划”以提振出生率，拨款22.8亿港元（约2.91亿美元）在三年内资助该计划。劳工及福利局报告称，截至2月，逾4成款项未被申领。
As a result, three years ago, the government launched its HK$20,000 baby-bonus scheme to lift the birth rate, setting aside HK$2.28 billion (US$291 million) to fund it over three years. The Labour and Welfare Bureau reported that, as of February, more than 40 per cent was unclaimed.
生育率下降仍是大势所趋。2025年香港仅录得31,714宗出生个案，创历史新低——这与2024年官方预测大相径庭，当时预测出生人数可从2022年受疫情影响时的约32,500宗，上升至每年约39,000宗。至4月，这一令人失望的结果促使政府在计划原定结束前六个月进行检讨。
Declining fertility remains the broader trend. Hong Kong saw a record low of only 31,714ed births in 2025 – a far cry from official projections made in 2024 that the number of births could rise from about 32,500 in 2022, during Covid-affected times, to around 39,000 a year. By April, the disappointing outcome had prompted the government to review the scheme six months before it was due to end.
与此同时，出生人数持续下跌。2025年年中至2026年年中的期间，全港录得29,700宗出生个案，为1962年有官方记录以来最低。而今年首八个月，全港仅录得19,255宗出生个案，较2025年同期下跌10%。
Meanwhile, the number of births has continued to fall. The city recorded 29,700 births between mid-2025 and mid-2026, the lowest since official records began in 1962. And in the first eight months of this year, the city saw only 19,255 births, a 10 per cent drop compared with the same period in 2025.
香港青年协会去年发布的一项针对1166名13至29岁青年的调查显示，仅36.5%受访者有生育意愿，而30.6%受访者完全不想生育子女。
A survey of 1,166 young people aged 13 to 29, released last year by the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups, found that only 36.5 per cent were interested in having children, while 30.6 per cent did not want any at all.
这种冷淡的原因可以理解地多种多样，且极具个人色彩。人工智能颠覆时代带来的就业不安全感、教育成本高昂，以及不愿在生活方式上做出妥协，恐怕都是原因之一。
The reasons for such disinterest are understandably varied and highly personal. Job insecurity in the age of disruption by artificial intelligence, the costs of education and an unwillingness to make lifestyle trade-offs are likely to play a part.
尽管如此，政府仍在“生育奖励金”承诺上加码，并增设了税务和住房优惠。行政长官李家超在最近的《施政报告》中，不仅将该计划延长三年，还将第二胎及以上子女的现金奖励提高至3万港元，并将此类子女的免税额从14万港元增至16万港元。
Nonetheless, the government has doubled down on the baby bonus commitment, with added tax and housing incentives. In his recent policy address, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu not only extended the scheme for another three years, but also raised the cash bonus for second and subsequent children to HK$30,000, and the tax allowance for such children from HK$140,000 to HK$160,000.
其他措施包括：为分娩前一年至后两年购买物业的家庭豁免印花税，上限为2万港元；以及提高育有新生儿、申请资助出售单位家庭的按揭贷款资产比率，以减轻其首期付款负担。香港大学经济学教授黄达业指出，缺乏负担得起的住房是年轻家庭面临的一个关键问题。
Other measures include waiving stamp duties for families who buy properties from one year before to two years after childbirth, capped at HK$20,000, and raising the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for families with newborns applying for subsidised flats to ease their down payment burden. As University of Hong Kong economics professor Michael Wong pointed out, the lack of affordable housing was a critical problem for young families.
李家超表示，目标是创造一个有利于生育的环境。这不仅包括缓解经济压力，还涉及解决职场要求和育儿需求。
The goal is to create a conducive environment for childbearing, Lee said. This includes addressing not just financial pressures but also workplace demands and childcare needs.
值得注意的是，香港女性在大学生和毕业生中仅略占半数以上。由于育儿责任仍倾向于由女性承担，若受过高等教育的女性要在抚养子女与职业生涯之间取得平衡，她们在工作期间需要获得负担得起的优质托育服务，在育儿期间则需要就业和收入保障。
It is worth noting that women make up just slightly more than half of university students and graduates in Hong Kong. As childcare still tends to fall on women, if higher-educated women are to balance raising children with a professional life, they need access to affordable quality childcare while working, and job and income protection while parenting.
生育奖励金无法解决此类结构性问题。除发放现金外，翻新后的计划应接受监测，以寻找其他有利于家庭友好的成果，因为这些现金津贴很快就会被正常的育儿开支耗尽。
The baby bonus cannot address such structural issues. The revamped scheme should be monitored for opportunities for family-friendly outcomes apart from handouts, which can soon be exhausted by normal child-rearing expenses.
李显龙正确地承认，即使经济因素是主要考量，任何单一的付款措施都无法保证生育率上升。“这些都是非常私人的事情，”他说。
Lee rightly acknowledged that even if economic factors were the main considerations, no single payment could guarantee an increase in births. “These are very personal matters,” he said.
当局已致力于通过扩大家庭托育和课后托管服务，减轻在职父母的负担。连同经济措施一道，这是应对这一复杂问题的正确路径。若要真正见效，政府应考虑进一步完善这些计划。南华早报社论
The authorities had sought to ease the burden on working parents by expanding childcare and after-school care services. Along with economic measures, that is the right approach to tackling a complex issue. To really make a difference, the government should consider further enhancing these schemes.