本周末，波斯尼亚民众将举行选举，与此同时，该国正热情欢迎美国总统的家人与友人到访。
As Bosnians vote in an election this weekend, the country is embracing the US president’s family and friends.
作者：贾斯米娜·库兹马诺维奇、扬·布拉塔尼奇、安德里亚·杜迪克。自30年前和平协议终结波斯尼亚战争以来，这个国家内各派系林立的族群几乎无法就任何事项达成共识。然而在周日选举前夕，他们终于因一件事团结在了一起：那就是与唐纳德·特朗普领导的美国政府建立联系所带来的种种好处。
By Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Jan Bratanic and Andrea Dudik In the three decades since a peace agreement ended the war in Bosnia, there’s little the country’s fractious ethnic groups have managed to agree on. Ahead of an election on Sunday, though, they’ve finally been united by something: the benefits of being in Donald Trump’s orbit.
特朗普的执政方式引发了欧洲各国的强烈批评，被认为破坏了跨大西洋外交政策体系。不过，在这个局势脆弱的巴尔干国家，各政治实体却纷纷转而支持美国——特朗普将该国的一位领导人从制裁名单中移除，其亲信还承诺提供23亿美元的投资，这些资金有望为该国带来翻天覆地的变化。
The president’s leadership has drawn sharp criticism in Europe for upending transatlantic foreign policy. The different entities in the fragile Balkan state, meanwhile, have rallied behind the US after he removed one leader from the sanctions list and his associates promised $2.3 billion of potentially transformative investment.
10月4日的选举并不会显著改变这个国家的权力分配格局：波斯尼亚塞族与穆斯林、克罗地亚族民众始终分属对立阵营。但此次选举将凸显出这样一个事实：波斯尼亚正逐渐远离加入欧盟的目标，转而向热衷于在该动荡地区开展商业活动的美国靠拢。
The Oct. 4 vote won’t much change how power is allocated in a nation divided between Bosnian Serbs on one side and Muslims and ethnic Croats on the other. What it will do is underscore how Bosnia has positioned itself further away from European Union membership and closer to an American leadership keen to do business in the volatile region.
从政治层面来看，外界正密切关注与特朗普有关联的企业能否兑现投资能源基础设施的承诺，同时关注这位首位非外交系统出身的美国驻波斯尼亚大使将如何推动两国关系进一步发展。
Politically, all eyes are on how a company linked to Trump will deliver on its promises to invest in energy infrastructure and how his new ambassador — the first ever to come from outside the foreign service — will foster closer relations between Bosnia and Washington.
“波斯尼亚民众感觉到，本届美国政府与众不同，”卢布尔雅那大学政治学讲师法里斯·科坎说道，“对他们而言，实力才是一切。从长远来看，这或许会对波斯尼亚这个国家有利。”长期以来，族群分歧严重阻碍了该国就加入欧盟等共同目标以及实现该目标所需的立法改革达成共识。如今，民众对加入欧盟的支持率持续走低；而由于波斯尼亚始终未能完成关键改革，那些对侨汇收入高度依赖的国家本可获得的欧盟资助也面临被取消的风险。
“Bosnians sense that this US government is different,” said Faris Kocan, political science lecturer at the University of Ljubljana. “Raw power is all that counts. It could benefit Bosnia as a state in the end.”Divisions have hurt the ability to agree on common goals such as EU membership or the legislative changes needed to achieve it. Support for joining the bloc keeps falling while access to EU funding for would-be members, so crucial for a country heavily reliant on remittances, is at risk as Bosnia keeps failing to deliver on key reforms.
与前南斯拉夫的其他地区一样，波斯尼亚也尚未直面其充满暴力的历史。尽管法律明令禁止，仍有一些人对1995年战争期间发生的种族灭绝事件提出质疑。今年9月，被判犯有战争罪的拉特科·姆拉迪奇去世时，波斯尼亚塞族人及邻国塞尔维亚均因美化这名战犯而遭到国际社会的批评。
Bosnia, like other parts of former Yugoslavia, also has yet to confront some of its violent past. Genocide during the war that ended in 1995 is questioned by some even if denial is prohibited by law. Bosnian Serbs also drew international criticism along with neighboring Serbia for glorifying convicted war criminal Ratko Mladic when he died in September.
波斯尼亚塞族地区的实权人物米洛拉德·多迪克时常鼓吹其管辖区域从波斯尼亚分离出去，他不仅阻挠各项改革，还公然质疑与欧盟一体化的必要性。去年，作为交换条件，多迪克辞去总统职务后，美国解除了对他的制裁。然而他依然掌控着塞族地区，今年早些时候特朗普的长子访波时，多迪克还与其会面。
Bosnian Serb strongman Milorad Dodik, who often calls for secession of his entity from the rest of the country, has blocked reforms and openly questions integration with the EU. US sanctions against him were dropped last year in exchange for his stepping down as president. Yet he remains very much in charge of the Serb entity and even met with Trump’s oldest son when he visited earlier this year.
据波斯尼亚塞族方面称，在特朗普执政后，美国不再干涉波斯尼亚的内政。“一些大国，也是最重要的那些国家，明确表示不会再对波斯尼亚进行外部干预或强制管控，”多迪克的亲信泽利卡·茨维亚诺维奇9月16日在接受塞族共和国公共广播台采访时说道，“这些国家要求：各方坐下来达成协议。”目前波斯尼亚正寄望于由前特朗普律师杰西·宾纳尔以及前国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林的弟弟约瑟夫·弗林共同执掌的AAFS基础设施与能源公司所提出的计划。
Under Trump, the US is no longer interfering in Bosnia’s internal affairs, according to the Bosnian Serbs. “There are major powers, the most important ones, which say there will be no more external management or heavy-handed rule,” Zeljka Cvijanovic, a close ally of Dodik, told RS public broadcaster on Sept. 16. “They say: Sit down and reach an agreement.”Bosnia is counting on plans put forward by AAFS Infrastructure and Energy, run by former Trump attorney Jesse Binnall and Joseph Flynn, the brother of the former national security advisor Michael Flynn.
该计划涵盖天然气管道与发电厂的投资建设，还包括在由波斯尼亚穆斯林与克罗地亚人联合治理的联邦地区修建机场。
They include investments in a natural gas pipeline and power plants, as well as airports in the Federation, the half of the country governed by an alliance of Bosnian Muslims and Croats.
最有可能率先从中获益的便是南部的历史名城莫斯塔尔——上世纪90年代初，这里曾是波斯尼亚战争中战事最为惨烈的地区之一。
The place set to profit most and first is Mostar, a historic city in the south that was the site of some of the ugliest fighting in the Bosnian war in the early 1990s.
这座热门旅游目的地的冲突遗留问题至今仍清晰可见，克罗地亚人主要居住在内雷特瓦河西岸，穆斯林则居住在东岸，该河将城镇一分为二。尽管只有一位市长和一个市议会，但双方各自拥有独立的机构，包括一家电网公司和一所大学。
The legacy of conflict in the popular tourist destination is still visible today, with Croats mostly living on the west bank of the Neretva River that splits the town, and Muslims on the east bank. While there’s a single mayor and a city assembly, each side has separate institutions, including a power grid company and a university.
AAFS在该座拥有10万人口的城市的规划如今包括一座燃气电厂、一个100兆瓦的数据中心及相关基础设施，仅这些项目的成本就约为5.3亿欧元（约合6.07亿美元）。AAFS驻萨拉热窝的高管阿梅尔·贝坎表示，这些项目获得了跨政治光谱的支持，因为“有人出面将他们团结在了一起”，并怀揣着改变这座城市的愿景。
Plans by AAFS in the city of 100,000 now include a gas power plant, a 100-megawatt data center and related infrastructure that alone would cost about €530 million ($607 million). Amer Bekan, AAFS’s Sarajevo-based executive, said the projects enjoy political support across the spectrum because “someone came and united them” with the vision to change the city.
另一项1亿欧元的投资将用于扩建莫斯塔尔机场，使其能够接待超过100万名游客。目前大多数游客从邻国克罗地亚入境，且多乘汽车抵达。
Another investment of €100 million is set to expand Mostar’s airport so it can receive more than a million visitors. Most now arrive from across the border in Croatia and by car.
“波黑急需能源和基础设施投资，因此这项投资受到欢迎，但必须透明进行，否则可能留下各种解读的空间，”资深波黑克罗地亚族政治家马丁·拉古兹表示。“我们的任务是将其与我们的欧洲目标相平衡，并保持欧洲导向。” 要维持这种平衡说起来容易做起来难，因为欧盟已质疑一些项目为何未经招标就授予了一家具有美国政治背景的新公司。
“Bosnia is in dire need of energy and infrastructure investment so this investment is welcome, but it has to be done transparently, otherwise it may create space for various interpretations,” said Martin Raguz, a veteran Bosnian Croat politician. “Our job is to balance this with our European goals and keep a European focus.”Keeping that balance is easier said than done as the EU has already questioned how some projects were awarded without tenders to a new company with US political ties.
建设天然气管道、终止对俄罗斯天然气依赖的计划获得了欧盟和早期美国政府的支持，但穆斯林和克罗地亚族政客因争夺设施控制权而发生冲突，导致该计划拖延多年。
The plan to build a gas pipeline and end reliance on Russian gas was supported by the EU and an earlier US government, but scuffling between Muslim and Croat politicians over control of the facility delayed it for years.
“美国在制止波黑战争及战后岁月中发挥了非常重要的作用，”欧盟扩大委员玛尔塔·科斯在近期接受采访时表示。“现在轮到我们欧洲人展现更强有力的参与了。”
“The United States of America has played a very important role to stop the war in Bosnia and in the years that followed,” Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement, said in a recent interview. “Now it’s time that we Europeans show even stronger engagement there.”