In 2021, the Japanese government set out an ambitious plan for offshore wind: 10 gigawatts (GW) of power generation by 2030 and between 30 and 45 GW by 2040.

Hopes were high. According to one study published in Nature, resource-poor Japan has enough potential wind power to meet all domestic energy demand eight times over.

Throughout 2021, the first auctions for offshore wind sites saw significant interest from Japanese and foreign developers alike, including Mitsubishi Corp. and Norway’s Orsted. Five years later, progress has been slow.

Only seven projects, with a total of 253.4 megawatts (MW), are operational so far, according to data from the Japan Wind Power Association. Many blame supply chain issues, including higher costs for raw materials. Others point to failures by the government to properly incentivize developers. This is what led Mitsubishi to completely exit the field in mid-2025, abandoning three projects due to construction prices nearly doubling, in a massive blow to Japan’s offshore wind ambitions. But the loss of momentum for offshore wind is not just a matter of financing.

Concerns from fishers, environmentalists and local communities have also played a role, especially in Tohoku, Hokkaido and along the Sea of Japan coast, where most of Japan’s offshore wind resources lie. These groups have had projects suspended or delayed in Fukui, Shiga and Hokkaido prefectures and are raising concerns about other projects in Fukuoka and Shizuoka prefectures. Some see a potential role for technology.

In Hokkaido, at two wind farms near eagle habitats, Nvbird bird detection and monitoring systems are already showing potential promise in preventing harm to endangered birds. Another system, AI Bird, developed by the Japan Weather Association, integrates video, infrared data and radar sensors to develop turbine-specific bird maps and automatically adjust operations to reduce conflicts.

As Japan looks to revive its offshore wind plans, addressing issues raised by environmentalists will be key in ensuring the rapid build-out needed to meet climate and energy demand goals.

“Offshore wind power stands as one of the most promising opportunities to harness the country’s vast marine resources and accelerate the expansion of renewable energy,” said Takeshi Matsuki, Japan country manager at the nonprofit Global Wind Energy Council. It is, he added, an opportunity to “demonstrate innovation, collaboration and leadership.”Offshore wind and net zero For many experts, the only way Japan can meet both its Paris Agreement and 2050 net-zero plans is by rapidly expanding offshore wind. Moreover, extra capacity might be even more crucial due to the rapid build-out of energy-intensive data centers to power ever-more sophisticated artificial intelligence.

In Tokyo, climate and energy organizations fear that any delays in expanding wind could open the door to the expanded use of fossil fuels, such as coal and natural gas, or controversial sources such as nuclear power, with far more worrying environmental impacts.

“Offshore wind is a key to achieving carbon neutrality and driving a new economy in Japan,” said Mika Ohbayashi, the director of the Tokyo-based Renewable Energy Institute, which is pushing for a more rapid wind expansion. While countries such as Spain, the United Kingdom and Denmark have become offshore wind hotspots in recent years, Japan faces a unique hurdle.

The country’s coastline has become a refuge for species that have lost habitats in other Asian countries, including China, North Korea and Russia, due to pollution, deforestation and industrialization. The issue is not just about how many birds offshore wind can impact, but instead, it’s the impact on the dwindling numbers of several iconic, threatened and endangered species that live in specific habitats. “In Japan, suitable locations for constructing offshore wind farms often overlap with locations favored by birds,” said Tatsuya Ura, chief researcher with the Wild Bird Society of Japan.

“We are concerned that large seabirds, particularly rare species, will be significantly affected.”Japan’s strong wind currents are mostly along the remote northern and western coasts. And this landscape is dotted with numerous endangered and migratory bird habitats, including those for white-tailed eagles, red-throated loons, sea eagles, streaked shearwaters and ospreys. Local bird lovers, environmentalists and groups like Japan Bird Life and the Wild Bird Society of Japan are concerned that, in a rush to develop wind, bird habitats might be neglected. “When selecting sites for offshore wind power generation, it is essential to avoid significant impacts on the natural environment,” added Ura.

“However, Japan has very little data on marine birds and mammals, raising concerns about how appropriately such site selection can be carried out.”The initial rush to develop offshore wind was concerning to Ura and other environmentalists, who say they found shortcomings in environmental impact assessments, such as ignored nesting sites or planned construction on breeding areas for several proposed offshore wind projects. Moreover, engagement from the developers of offshore wind has been lacking, environmentalists say.

“Companies do not consult with or negotiate with us about their plans, which means we cannot be involved in project planning from the early stages,” Ura said.

Despite concerns about impacts on specific species, there is consensus that climate change itself is a bigger threat to marine wildlife than wind turbines.

The nonprofit Audubon Society notes that two-thirds of bird species in North America will face extinction unless we tackle climate change. The Wild Bird Society of Japan agrees, stating that they don’t oppose offshore wind as a whole but want to see bird protection taken more seriously by developers.

There are economic concerns at play, too. If a wind farm is built without proper understanding of its impacts on birds and is found to threaten or harm birds, it could be forced to shut down or reduce operations, resulting in higher costs or potential losses.

In fact, that is just what happened to a planned wind farm along the Shiga and Fukui prefectural borders in 2023. A faulty environmental impact assessment — a common problem, according to Ura — ignored that a nearby forest was home to two endangered bird species, golden eagles and mountain hawk-eagles, of which less than 500 and 1,800, respectively, are estimated to still live in Japan. The project ended up being suspended, at a high cost to the developers.

Eurus Energy, one of Japan’s largest utilities, also said by email that they’ve had to cut operations at the Hamasato Offshore Wind Farm in Hokkaido due to multiple bird strike incidents. For several months during migration season, the farm could only operate for a few hours at night, limiting its ability to produce clean energy.

Tech solutions One tool already being used at two offshore wind farms in Hokkaido last year is Nvbird, which uses AI and thermal imaging to mitigate the risks of bird strikes from offshore wind farms.

So far, the results are hopeful, says Lampros Argyris, business development manager at the Greece-based Nvisionist, the company behind Nvbird.

“Our first systems in Japan were installed onshore in Hokkaido in 2024,” said Argyris. “They have operated reliably, detecting at‑risk birds and triggering proportionate responses to monitor and reduce collision risk while minimizing unnecessary downtime.”Birds present at those two sites include Steller’s sea eagles, white-tailed sea eagles, red-crowned cranes and Saunders’ gulls, all of which are considered vulnerable or near threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Nvbird uses cutting-edge sensors, which are adaptable and can gather data from each specific device. Nvbird then analyzes the data via an autonomous local processing AI. This allows it to constantly monitor and detect birds and slow or shut down operations when birds are present. It’s not a simple process, says Argyris.

“Specific challenges for a bird detection system in Hokkaido are the very harsh weather conditions, heavy snowfall, fog, low temperatures, communication issues and difficulty in accessing sites in winter for maintenance,” said Argyris. To address that, the company is expanding local capacity, making the technology more weather-resilient and looking to train their systems on Japanese datasets.

According to Argyris, Nvbird has “operated reliably, detecting at‑risk birds and triggering proportionate responses to monitor and reduce collision risk while minimizing unnecessary downtime.”Ura also sees potential for integration of satellite and broader bird monitoring to place turbines away from migration or nesting areas.

“This system … could be useful to some extent in monitoring the occurrence of bird collisions,” said Ura, especially “if it is linked to an emergency shutdown system for the turbines.”Social acceptance The developers of AI Bird, the tool created by the Japan Weather Association (JWA), see their tool playing a role in increasing social acceptance of wind power.

“The sustainable development of wind power must account for its environmental footprint, and mitigating harm to birds is crucial,” said Bich Ngoc Ho, an engineer with JWA. “Protecting these species aligns with international conservation commitments and helps maintain public support for renewable energy.”AI Bird is a collaboration between JWA, academia and the Leadedge Technology corporation and uses high-resolution video and AI detection to identify certain species of flying birds, including white-tailed eagles and Steller’s sea eagles. According to JWA, they’ve achieved a 94% success rate in identification in trials. The system, however, has yet to be deployed at a commercial farm.

“The basic research and development has been completed,” said Ho. “By providing continuous, automated monitoring of bird activity, AI Bird can help operators make informed decisions, such as adjusting turbine operations during peak migration periods or high-risk events.”Both Nvbird and AI Bird can be added to existing offshore wind farms or ones being planned, making it an additive solution. But Ura sees a problem with this approach — it relies on data, and thus far, Japan’s data on bird migration routes, nesting sites and potential conflicts is lacking. For environmental groups such as Ura’s, merely adding tools like AI Bird and Nvbird to a project located in a sensitive area is not enough.

“With the current method of site selection, it is highly likely that more and more locations will emerge where wind power generation projects and the protection of birds and marine life cannot be compatible,” said Ura. “On the other hand, if site selection involves marine spatial planning and strategic environmental impact assessment, it will be possible to select sites that are compatible.”In fact, Ura’s organization has created a sensitivity map regarding offshore wind power and birds, which they hope can be the basis for better planning around offshore wind.

The time for proper planning and data gathering is now, because offshore wind in Japan is still in its infancy, with just seven offshore wind farms online producing 253 megawatts (MW) of power, including the two using Nvbird. These tools could limit the threats posed to some of Japan’s most precious and iconic bird species, raising support for the struggling industry.

“AI Bird is a proactive step to balance clean energy goals with environmental conservation,” said Ho. “While no solution is perfect, technologies like AI Bird are a crucial step toward responsible wind energy development.”