2026年10月4日凌晨5点（美国东部时间）作者：赛奇·米勒在这张资料照片中，时任亚利桑那州皮纳尔县警长的马克·兰姆于2023年2月28日在华盛顿特区众议院国土安全委员会上作证。目前，兰姆面临任职期间存在性不当行为及发表种族主义言论的指控。如今，他正竞选国会议员。
October 4, 2026 5:00 AM ET Saige Miller In this file photo, Mark Lamb then-Sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona, testified during a House Homeland Security Committee on February 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. Lamb is facing accusations of sexual misconduct and racist remarks when he served as sheriff. Now, he's running for Congress.
转为无党派人士。这位居住在亚利桑那州吉尔伯特市的女子一直认为自己属于保守派，但由于无法认同特朗普领导下的共和党，她陷入了政治身份认同的困惑。
Drew Angerer/Getty Images Kimberly Tait had been aed Republican all her life, until she switched her affiliation to independent in 2016. The Gilbert, Ariz., resident always considered herself to be conservative but experienced a political identity crisis because she couldn't bring herself to align with the Republican Party under President Trump.
“我在政治上算不上激进，其实相当温和，”泰特说道，“但‘MAGA运动’本身对我来说实在令人反感。”如今，身为耶稣基督后期圣徒教会信徒的泰特又遇到了另一位令她反感的政客——马克·兰姆。兰姆曾是皮纳尔县警长，如今作为共和党候选人竞选亚利桑那州第五国会选区的席位，而该地区向来是保守派的大本营。
"I'm not super progressive politically and I'm really pretty moderate." Tait said. "But the MAGA movement in and of itself is — it's just really gross to me." Now Tait — also a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — has another politician on her ballot that turns her off: Mark Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff and Republican nominee for Arizona's 5th Congressional District, a conservative stronghold.
兰姆被普遍视为大选的热门胜出者，但难以赢得摩门教选民的支持可能导致这场竞选比预期更加胶着。
Lamb is favored to win the general election, but a lack of appeal to Mormon voters could make it a closer-than-expected race.
尽管兰姆自称是后期圣徒教会成员，但泰特等当地摩门教徒却质疑他是否真正恪守信仰及其从政动机。兰姆的竞选口号是“上帝、家庭、自由”，但在泰特看来，这一口号毫无诚意可言，因为“这位候选人及其所代表的一切恰恰与这一理念背道而驰”。
While Lamb says he is a member of the LDS church, Tait is one of the Mormons in the district that question Lamb's adherence to the faith as well as his political motivations. Lamb's campaign slogan is "God, Family, Freedom," and, to her, the sentiment rings hollow because "the candidate and all that they represent is the antithesis of that." "Yes, Mark Lamb is a member of my faith.
“没错，马克·兰姆确实是我的教友，他也是耶稣基督后期圣徒教会的成员。但据我所知，他在公开场合与私下里的种种不诚实行为完全违背了我们的信仰，”泰特说道。
He also belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But from what I understand about Mark Lamb, the dishonesty that has been displayed in his public and private life is completely contrary to our faith," Tait said.
亚利桑那州第五国会选区涵盖了马里科帕县——该州人口最多的县——以及皮纳尔县的菲尼克斯东部郊区。近年来，这一选区的人口数量激增。
The district and Lamb's candidacy Arizona's 5th Congressional District covers the eastern part of the sprawling Phoenix suburbs of Maricopa County — Arizona's most populated — as well as Pinal County. The district has exploded in population in recent years, too.
亚利桑那州立大学的政治学教授金·弗里德金在该选区居住了约十年，亲眼见证了这里的变化。
Kim Fridkin, a political science professor at Arizona State University, has lived in the district for roughly a decade and has watched it change.
“很多来自其他州的人搬到这里，其中不少来自加利福尼亚州；他们显然希望移居到一个更为保守的地方，”她说。
"A lot of people came in from other states and a lot of them from California and they definitely wanted to move to a more conservative place," she said.
弗里德金补充道，该选区的居民由工薪阶层、中产阶级以及中上阶层家庭组成。这里以共和党支持者为主（在最近的总统选举中，特朗普在该选区获得了约20个百分点的优势），居民多为白人且宗教信仰浓厚，摩门教徒人数也相当可观。在亚利桑那州的六座摩门教寺庙中，有两座就坐落在这个面积相对较小的选区内。
Fridkin added the residents are a mix of working, middle and upper middle class families. It's predominantly Republican (Trump won the district by roughly 20 points in the last presidential election), mostly white and fairly religious with a sizable LDS population. Two of Arizona's six LDS temples are located within the boundaries of the relatively small district.
共和党众议员安迪·比格斯正在竞选亚利桑那州州长。2026年7月17日，他在亚利桑那州吉尔伯特市的一场竞选活动中发表讲话。
Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., who is running in the primary for Arizona governor, speaks at a campaign event July 17, 2026, in Gilbert, Ariz.
由于安迪·比格斯不再寻求连任、转而竞选州长，该选区的选民们将在民主党人伊丽莎白·李与马克·兰姆之间做出选择。伊丽莎白·李是一名护士，也是政治领域的新人；而马克·兰姆则得到了特朗普的支持，不过其过往经历充满丑闻。
Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin/AP With Rep. Andy Biggs not seeking reelection to run for Arizona governor, voters in the district will decide between Democrat Elizabeth Lee, a nurse and political newcomer, or Lamb, who is endorsed by Trump and has a scandal-plagued past.
在担任皮纳尔县警长期间，兰姆曾被指控发表种族主义言论以及有性行为不端行为。《亚利桑那共和报》发表了一系列深度调查报道，指称兰姆多次出轨，还向一名婚外女性发送过露骨色情信息；若对方公开谈论此事，他还威胁会派执法人员对付她。
Lamb has been accused of racist remarks and sexual misconduct while he was Pinal County sheriff. The Arizona Republic released a multipart investigation into Mark Lamb where it alleges he had multiple affairs and sent sexually explicit messages to a woman outside his marriage then threatened to send law enforcement after her if she spoke publicly about it.
耶稣基督后期圣徒教会最为重视的价值观之一就是贞洁，这要求教徒在婚姻之外不得有任何形式的性关系。倘若有教徒违背了教会规约，教会领袖有权剥夺其某些特权，甚至将其逐出教会。《亚利桑那共和报》报道称，教会领袖曾对有关兰姆存在不当性行为的指控展开调查。
One of the most prominent values the LDS church holds sacred is chastity, which includes no sexual relations of any kind outside of marriage. If a member is found to be out of step with covenants, church leaders can revoke certain privileges and can even move to excommunicate the member. The Arizona Republic reported that church leaders looked into claims about Lamb's sexual improprieties.
兰姆并未回应NPR的采访请求。今年6月，他在“Encores保守派俱乐部”举办的活动上否认了这些指控。
Lamb, who did not respond to NPR's interview request, denied the allegations during an event at the Encores Conservative Club in June.
“有人称我是种族主义者，有人称我是厌女症患者……我在此郑重声明：这些都是谎言，全都是假的，”他这样说道，所指的就是《亚利桑那共和报》此前发表的关于兰姆参选的多篇报道。
"I've been called a racist. I've been called a misogynist … I'm going to tell you folks, these are lies. Every single bit of it," he said, referring to the multiple articles the Arizona Republic has published on Lamb's candidacy.
部分后期圣徒教徒难以支持兰姆。如今兰姆成为共和党候选人，这正是如今的共和党已面目全非的最新例证。
Some Latter-day Saint voters struggle to support Lamb To Tait, Lamb as the nominee is the latest example of an unrecognizable Republican Party.
“又有一位被指控对女性有不当性行为的官员当选，”泰特说道，“这对我和我的孩子们来说都不是什么好事。这究竟会给我们的孩子带来怎样的示范作用呢？”从历史上看，摩门教徒大多投票给共和党。不过根据YouGov的分析，过去二十年里他们的政治倾向已不再那么偏向共和党。在毗邻的犹他州，后期圣徒教会是当地最主要的宗教团体，而特朗普在这个传统上的共和党大州却遭遇了极大的反对声浪。
"The idea of having yet another elected official who is accused of sexual misconduct towards women," Tait said, "that does not speak well to me, to my children. Like, what is that teaching our children?" Historically, Mormons vote for Republicans. But they have become a little less red over the last two decades, according to an analysis by YouGov. In neighboring Utah, where the LDS church is the predominant religion, Trump has faced some of his greatest opposition in a red state.
再看亚利桑那州这个摇摆州，由于不少后期圣徒教徒对特朗普粗俗的言行以及在移民等问题上的强硬立场颇有微词，因此整体而言他们的投票倾向愈发偏向独立派。
So looking at a purple state like Arizona, LDS voters start to look more independent overall when factoring in a complicated relationship many have with President Trump over his crass personality and hardline stances on issues, such as immigration.
霍莉·安德森就是亚利桑那州那些立场趋于中立的后期圣徒选民之一。
Holly Anderson is one of those Arizona LDS voters that has become more purple.
“我依据个人价值观来投票，我认为领导者必须具备良好的品格。我并不认同任何一党，”安德森对NPR说道。
"I vote according to my personal values, and I believe that a leader should have character. I do not align with either one of the parties," Anderson told NPR.
她说自己敬仰已故的亚利桑那州参议员约翰·麦凯恩以及前共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼。但如今共和党已经发生了变化，安德森认为，即便她和兰姆信仰相同，支持他也是虚伪之举。
She said she loved the late Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. But the party has changed and Anderson said it would be hypocritical of her to support Lamb, even if they share the same religion.
“在我的信仰中，我们始终遵循《哥林多后书》第13章第1节的教导。这对我们而言是极为重要的经文，上面写道：‘凡事都要凭两三个人的口作见证，才可定案。’”她说道，“已有多位女性站出来揭露了兰姆的种种恶行。”该选区的另一位无党派摩门教选民苏珊娜·伦特也表示，自己不会在11月把票投给兰姆。她从小就是共和党支持者，自认属于温和保守派。但在2021年1月6日美国国会遭袭事件后，她决定脱离共和党。在2024年总统选举期间，她还担任了“共和党人支持拜登委员会”的联合主席。
"In my faith, we really stand by 2 Corinthians 13:1. It's a very important scripture to us. It says 'In the mouth of two or three witnesses, shall every word be established,'" she said. "There's been multiple women who have come forth and exposed the things that he has done." Suzanne Lunt, another independent LDS voter in the district, doesn't plan on voting for Lamb in November, either. She grew up Republican and considered herself to be a moderate conservative. But after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, she decided to leave the party. During the 2024 presidential election, she was the co-chair of the Republicans for Biden committee.
由于政治立场的原因，她常被称作“名义上的共和党人”或“伪共和党人”。但她觉得是共和党及其领导人误导了她，而非相反。
She's been called a Republican in Name Only, or a RINO, over her political stances. But she feels like the Republican Party and its leaders led her astray, not the other way around.
“我认为有很多共和党人其实都是伪共和党人，因为他们并未坚守我们多年来一直推崇的那些原则，”她说道，所指的就是那些不支持小政府理念、不倡导保护生命以及缺乏正直品格的共和党人。
"There are a lot of Republicans that I think are really RINOs because they're not upholding the principles that we've all admired all of these years," she said, referring to Republicans not supporting small government, protection of life and upstanding character.
“我觉得我们必须找到具备良好品格、能够切实代表我们利益的人选，我们的教会领袖也教导我们要这么做，”伦特补充道，“而兰姆在很多方面都显得不可信。”虽然这三位女性都认为，鉴于该选区的保守倾向，兰姆会在11月胜选，但她们也注意到，越来越多的摩门教选民开始对党派政治产生抵触情绪。
"I think we need to find people, and we're taught by our church leaders that we need to look at people who have character and who can represent us well," Lunt added. "Lamb comes across as so untrustworthy on a lot of different levels." While all three women believe Lamb will be victorious in November because of the district's conservative lean, they are noticing that more LDS voters are souring on partisan politics altogether.
“我认为民众的情绪确实出现了转变，我知道有越来越多人和我有同样的想法。现在我再也没看到有人戴MAGA帽子了，我觉得大多数人都不想与那种疯狂和极端主义扯上关系，”伦特说道。
"I think there's definitely a turn in people's feelings and I think that there are more that feel like me that I'm aware of. I don't ever see anybody wearing their MAGA hats anymore and I think most people don't want to be associated with that craziness and the extremism," Lunt said.
民主党人取胜之路：对于民主党人而言，要从库克政治报告评定为“坚定倾向共和党”的选区中胜出实属艰难，但伊丽莎白·李仍决心一试。
A Democrat's path to victory It will be a real uphill battle for a Democrat to flip a district that is rated Solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, but Elizabeth Lee is giving it a shot.
这位民主党候选人以“护士李”作为自己的标签。她是一名不孕不育治疗领域的护士，并表示从事医疗行业所积累的经验能助力她在华盛顿特区开展工作。
The Democratic candidate has branded herself as "Nurse Lee." She is an infertility nurse and said working in the health care space has given her experience that would help her in Washington D.C.
“护士们接受过特殊训练，能够迅速应对各种状况，准确判断问题所在，并调动各类资源加以解决，”李对NPR说道。
"Nurses are uniquely trained to walk into a situation very quickly, assess what's happening, what the problem is, and then pulling together the resources to solve it," Lee told NPR.
李试图利用部分选民对共和党候选人的不满情绪来争取支持。在竞选过程中，她详细阐述了自己的施政重点与资质，同时批评兰姆缺乏明确的政策主张，且人品欠佳。
Lee is trying to capitalize on the discontent some voters feel about the Republican nominee. On the campaign trail, she has outlined her priorities and qualifications while nailing Lamb for his lack of policy goals and in her opinion, character.
“共和党推举了一位问题重重的候选人，他的种种劣迹正是全国民众乃至本选区选民所深恶痛绝的，”她说道。
"The GOP has nominated an extremely flawed candidate with the kind of alleged flaws that people nationally are fed up with, that people in this district are most certainly fed up with," she said.
亚利桑那州立大学政治学教授弗里德金指出，尽管民主党人要赢得该席位难度颇大，但仍有诸多因素对李有利。
Fridkin, the professor of political science at Arizona State University, said while it will be tough for a Democrat to flip the seat, there are factors working in Lee's favor.
“人们正切实感受到高油价的影响，房价也居高不下，而亚利桑那州的水危机同样至关重要。所有这些问题都直接冲击着人们的日常生活，”她表示。“正是在这种情况下，这类低投票意愿的选民可能会被动员出来投票，尤其是如果有人上门拜访并告诉他们为什么要这样做的话。”特朗普目前的支持率低迷可能会影响选举结果。最近的一项民调发现，仅有39%的亚利桑那州选民认可总统的履职表现，这是该摇摆州有史以来记录到的最低支持率。
"People are really feeling the effects of high gas prices and housing prices are really high and the water crisis is important in Arizona. All of these things are really hitting people where they live," she said. "That's when these types of low interest voters might be motivated to turn out, especially if someone is knocking on the door and telling them why they should." Trump's current unpopularity could play a role in the election outcome. One recent poll found that only 39% of Arizona voters approved of the president's job – the lowest rating ever recorded in the swing state.
此外，弗里德金认为，独立选民对任何一位候选人获胜都至关重要。该选区中登记选民人数最多的群体是共和党人。但独立选民约有19.5万人，是亚利桑那州各选区中独立选民数量第二多的选区，使其成为一个具有影响力的投票群体。
Additionally, Fridkin argues the independent vote is critical for either candidate to win. The largest group ofed voters in the district are Republicans. But there are about 195,000 independents — the second most in any district in Arizona — making them an influential voting bloc.
从李的角度来看，风向正在向左转。李的竞选团队向全国公共广播电台（NPR）分享的一项内部民调显示，她在这个保守派选区正在获得支持，尤其是在独立选民中。这项由变革研究公司（Change Research）进行的民调发现，李落后于兰姆3到5个百分点。
From Lee's perspective, the needle is moving to the left. An internal poll Lee's campaign shared with NPR shows her gaining traction in the conservative district, especially among independents. The poll, which was conducted by Change Research, found Lee was trailing behind Lamb by three to five points.
“我们花了一年时间打了数万个电话，敲了数万个门，并且深知……独立选民并不支持极端政治，”李说，“这使得这场竞选呈现出我们近期民调所显示的局面。也就是说，这场竞选实际上处于误差范围之内。”2026年中期选举
"We have spent a year making tens of thousands of phone calls, knocking tens of thousands of doors and knowing … independents are not for extremist politics," Lee said, "sets this race up for exactly what our recent polling showed. And that is that this is actually within the margin of error." 2026 midterms