最新民调显示，资深的南非反对派政治家海伦·齐勒最有可能成为约翰内斯堡的下一任市长。不过在11月4日举行的地方选举中，她很可能无法获得绝对多数选票。
South African opposition politician Helen Zille is the front-runner to become Johannesburg’s next mayor, a new poll showed, but she’ll likely fall short of securing an outright majority in municipal elections to be held on Nov. 4.
根据周日发布的News 24/SABI Strategy Group民调结果，齐勒预计将获得36%的选票，这一比例远超支持非洲人国民大会候选人的27%，但仍未达到50%的门槛，因此她无法仅凭自身力量执政。
Zille is set to receive 36% of the votes, according to a News 24/SABI Strategy Group survey published on Sunday, well ahead of the 27% who’d back an African National Congress candidate — but short of the 50% threshold that would allow her to govern without the support of other parties.
实际上出现在选票上的政党是齐勒领导的民主联盟，该党获得的支持率为29%，同样高于非洲人国民大会的23%。后者这一得票率较2021年下降了10个百分点。
Zille’s Democratic Alliance party, which will be the actual choice on the ballot, got a more modest 29% but was still ahead of the ANC on 23%, which would represent a 10-percentage point retreat from its 2021 result.
此次民调结果与9月初的一项调查结果相悖。当时该调查显示，在约翰内斯堡，非洲人国民大会以31%的得票率领先于民主联盟的28%。
The new poll was at odds with the findings of a survey in early September which showed the ANC in the lead at 31% in Johannesburg, compared with 28% for the DA.
约翰内斯堡是南非的商业中心，但如今却成了该国城市治理混乱的典型代表。此次选举至关重要，它将检验非洲人国民大会能否扭转选民对其日益不满的趋势。这些选民对高失业率、糟糕的公共服务、犯罪和腐败现象深感愤怒。
Johannesburg is the nation’s commercial hub but has become a poster child for dysfunctional city governance in South Africa. It’s a key race in an election that will test whether the ANC can stall declining popularity with voters who are angry over high unemployment, poor public services, crime and corruption.
自30年前种族隔离制度终结以来，纳尔逊·曼德拉创建的这一政党在2024年的大选中首次失去了议会多数席位。此后，非洲人国民大会与包括第二大政党民主联盟在内的多个小党派组成联合政府进行全国治理。尽管该党在民意支持率上有所下滑，但这个所谓的“民族团结政府”因其亲商政策赢得了投资者的青睐。南非的下一次全国大选定于2029年举行。
The party of Nelson Mandela lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election for the first time since the end of White-minority rule 30 years earlier. The ANC has since governed at the national level in a coalition with smaller rivals and the DA, the second-largest party. Even as the ANC has declined in the polls, the so-called government of national unity has won favor from investors for its pro-business approach. South Africa’s next national elections are due to be held in 2029.
News 24/SABI民调于8月25日至9月17日期间开展，调查对象为1000名约翰内斯堡选民。调查内容既包括各政党的受欢迎程度，也涉及如果选民能直接投票给齐勒这样的个人候选人，他们会作何选择。
The N24/SABI poll was conducted between Aug. 25 and Sept. 17 among a sample of 1,000ed Johannesburg voters. It measured both the popularity of the individual parties and who voters would choose if they could select an individual candidate such as Zille.