2008年11月，我怀孕八个月，正守着电视看选举结果陆续出炉。不知怎么的，我竟找到了一种让自己更难受的姿势：倒挂在沙发上。头枕在靠垫上，双脚悬空晃荡。我拼命保持平衡，同时试图让一种叫艾草的东西贴近脚趾。女儿是臀位，为了帮她转过来，我什么都愿意试，哪怕意味着把世界颠倒过来。
In November 2008, I was eight months pregnant, watching the election returns roll in. Somehow, I’d found a way to make myself even more uncomfortable: I was upside down on my couch. My head was on the cushions. My feet dangled above me. I strained to balance myself while trying to keep something called mugwort near my toes. My daughter was breech, and I was willing to try anything to help her flip, even if it meant turning the world upside-down.
我在谷歌搜索中看到，用艾草熏蒸的“艾灸”疗法可能有助于纠正胎位。作为一名医生和科学家，我非常清楚，支持这种做法的同行评审证据有限。我从未听说过有人开艾灸处方。但随着我期待的自然分娩时间窗口逐渐关闭，我更愿意相信这或许真有用。尽管我持怀疑态度，但心想：“反正无害！为什么不试试？”我这种寻找并使用未经证实的健康信息的冲动并不罕见。
I’d seen from a Google search that “moxibustion” with the smoldering herb might help with turning a breech baby. As a physician and scientist, I was well aware there was limited peer-reviewed evidence for what I was doing. I’d never heard of anyone prescribing moxibustion. But with the window narrowing for the birth I had hoped for, I was more willing to believe there might be something to it. Although I was skeptical, I thought, “It couldn’t hurt! Why not?”My impulse to seek out and use unproven health information is not uncommon.
埃德尔曼信任研究院和我们耶鲁公共卫生学院团队（我担任院长）发布的新研究显示，我们中许多人都愿意在不可靠的地方寻找健康指导。
New research released by the Edelman Trust Institute and our team at the Yale School of Public Health, where I serve as dean, shows that many of us are willing to look for health guidance in unreliable places.
在一个信息碎片化、对机构信任崩塌的世界里，了解我们相信什么以及为什么相信显得尤为重要。我们的新分析测试了人们对六项无根据健康主张的看法，主题涉及儿童疫苗、生奶、饮用水加氟等。接受调查的13000多人中，绝大多数，即全球70%，至少相信其中一项主张。相信这些主张的人并非只是未接触过科学的人；他们中大多数上过大学级别或更高层次的科学课程。而且，易感性并不沿着党派或代际界限整齐划分。
In a world where information comes at us in fragments and trust in institutions is crumbling, it’s worth understanding what we believe and why. Our new analysis tested views on six unfounded health claims about subjects like childhood vaccines, raw milk, fluoride in drinking water, and so on. Huge majorities of the 13,000+ people surveyed, 70% globally, believed at least one of these claims. And the people who believed these claims weren’t simply those without exposure to science; most of them had taken a university-level or higher science course. Nor did susceptibility fall neatly along partisan or generational lines.
寻找替代性答案的现象比我们想象的要主流得多。无论老少、左右派——我们几乎所有人都对健康信息的某些方面感到困惑。
The search for alternative answers is far more mainstream than we tend to assume. Young or old, left or right—almost all of us are confused about some aspect of health information.
分析显示，这一点在恐惧和不确定的时刻尤为明显，当你或你所爱之人的生命悬于一线时。事实上，那些频繁与医疗体系打交道的人，持有三条或以上此类无根据信念的可能性高出50%以上。
That’s especially true, the analysis shows, in moments of fear and uncertainty, when your life or the life of someone you love is on the line. In fact, those who frequently interacted with the health care system were more than 50% more likely to hold three or more of these unfounded beliefs.
任何经历过复杂或顽固疾病折磨的人都能理解为何会如此。寻找答案的时间越长，遭遇的不确定性就越多：检查结果模棱两可、治疗无效、专家意见相左。于是人们继续寻找。他们可能依赖直觉，或向朋友寻求答案。
Anyone who has endured the frustration of a complicated or persistent illness can understand why that might be the case. The longer you search for answers, the more uncertainty you encounter: ambiguous tests, treatments that don’t work, specialists who disagree. So people keep searching. They may rely on intuition or turn to friends for answers.
越来越多的人也转向网络或求助于AI。事实上，我们调查中近半数受访者认为，一个没有医学背景但精通AI的人，至少能胜任一项健康相关任务，且表现不逊于甚至优于医生。
Increasingly, people also look online or turn to AI. In fact, nearly half of the respondents in our survey believe someone without medical training who is fluent with AI can perform at least one health-related task as well as or better than a doctor.
作为一名医生，这些发现让我担忧，但不意外。人们渴望共情、谦逊和积极倾听。AI——以及朋友、家人和社交媒体——都能提供这些。然而，它们是否能提供准确信息，尚存争议。
As a doctor, these findings concern me, but don’t surprise me. People crave empathy, humility, and active listening. AI—as well as friends, family, and social media—can provide that. Whether they provide accurate information is, however, up for debate.
当然，仅有共情无法替代良好的数据。我们的分析显示，面对困惑时什么方法可能奏效：当人们认为自己的担忧真正被听见时，他们更有可能接受好的建议。这一原则不仅适用于诊室，也适用于任何公共卫生领域要求人们信任专业知识的场合。
Empathy alone isn’t, of course, a substitute for good data. Our analysis shows what may work in the face of confusion: recognizing that people are far more likely to accept good advice when they believe their concerns are truly heard. That principle applies not only to the exam room, but to anywhere public health asks people to place their trust in expertise.
什么技巧似乎能起作用？人们表示，在以下情况下他们更倾向于采纳建议：第一，认为自己的担忧和经历被严肃对待；第二，认为对方了解他们的社群；第三，感觉到自己被倾听。
What techniques seem to make a difference? People reported being more likely to take advice when they believe, first, that their concerns and experience have been taken seriously, when they believe that someone understands their community, and when they feel listened to.
当我们身处充斥着各种相互矛盾的健康信息的环境中时，要判断该信任谁确实很难。在充满不确定性的氛围下，错误信息极易蔓延，尤其是当这些错误信息能为复杂的问题提供看似简单的答案时。不过我们的分析表明，赢得信任并非遥不可及。事实上，近一半的受访者表示，他们曾看到医生或医学专家通过努力建立起公众的信任。正因如此，这项分析才带来了希望，也向我们指明了前进的方向。
As we collectively wade through a sea of conflicting health information, knowing whom to trust is genuinely hard. Misinformation flourishes in the petri dish of uncertainty, especially when misinformation offers simple answers to complicated questions. But our analysis shows that trust is not out of reach. In fact, nearly half of respondents said they’d seen doctors or medical experts build bridges and grow trust. This is where this analysis holds hope and shows us that there are paths forward.
至于我呢？最终，我女儿还是翻身了，不过是在几周之后。我觉得艾草起不了什么作用。但我仍记得那天夜里我真正想要的是什么——并不是什么答案，而是掌控感。点燃艾灸棒对我来说就像是一种祈祷，希望自己能做点什么来改变局面。
As for me? In the end, my daughter did flip, albeit weeks later. I doubt the mugwort had anything to do with it. But I remember what I was actually looking for that night, and it wasn’t an answer. It was agency. Lighting that moxibustion stick was a little prayer that there was something I could do.
这种渴望获得确定性、掌控感以及答案的心理其实是人类共有的天性。我们越能理解这一点，就越有机会帮助人们找到值得信赖的答案。
That impulse to find some certainty, control, and answers is deeply human. The more we understand that, the better chance we have of helping people find answers they can trust.