在波斯尼亚10月4日选举前夕，波斯尼亚塞族领导人米洛拉德·多迪克在其右翼联盟的最后一次集会上发表了极具争议性的言论。
Speaking at the final rally of his right-wing alliance ahead of Bosnia’s October 4 election, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik delivered a predictably controversial statement.
“波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那已经名存实亡。这个国家根本无法存续，毫无存在的意义，”周五，多迪克在巴尼亚卢卡对独立社会民主者联盟党的支持者们说道。
“Bosnia-Herzegovina is dead. It is an impossible country, it makes no sense,” Dodik told supporters of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) party in Banja Luka on Friday.
这位以频繁发表分裂言论及挑战国家宪法而闻名的前塞族共和国总统接着说：“如今它只不过是个空壳罢了……那些试图维持其存在的人，不过是想借此证明自己是对的。”
“It is now nothing more than an empty shell … for those who are trying to keep it alive, so they can prove themselves right about something,” said the former president of Republika Srpska, who is known for frequent separatist threats and for challenging the country’s constitution.
自1995年《代顿和平协议》签署至今已三十余年，波斯尼亚在政治未来问题上依然分歧严重。该协议将国家划分为两个半自治区域：以塞族人为主的塞族共和国，以及大部分波斯尼亚人和克罗地亚人居住的联邦地区。
Dodik’s comments came as Bosnia remains deeply divided over its political future more than three decades since the 1995 Dayton peace agreement. It split the country into two semi-autonomous parts – the Serb-majority Republika Srpska entity and the Federation entity, where most Bosniaks and Croats live.
该协议终结了1992年至1995年的波斯尼亚战争，并确立了穆斯林波斯尼亚人、东正教塞族人与天主教克罗地亚人之间分享权力的政治框架。
The agreement ended the 1992–95 Bosnian War and established a political framework for power-sharing among Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats.
周日，全国选民投票选出了波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那多民族总统团的三名成员、国家议会代表以及两个自治实体的领导人。
On Sunday, voters across the country cast ballots to elect the three members of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s multiethnic presidency, representatives to the national parliament and leaders of institutions in the country’s two entities.
由于去年因拒绝执行负责监督《代顿和平协议》实施的国际和平特使克里斯蒂安·施密特的命令而被剥夺职务，多迪克本人并未参与此次选举。“毫无政治影响力”萨拉热窝政治学院教授埃尔维斯·费伊齐奇指出，像多迪克这类人物试图瓦解波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的举动不过是“民粹主义言论”罢了。
Dodik himself is not on the ballot after being stripped of his post last year, following his conviction for refusing to carry out decisions issued by Christian Schmidt, the international peace envoy who oversees the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement. ‘No political relevance’Elvis Fejzic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo, said attempts by figures such as Dodik to dismantle Bosnia and Herzegovina amount to “populist rhetoric”.
“那些行事违反宪法的政客和政党无法决定波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的命运，”费伊齐奇对半岛电视台说道。他同时强调，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那作为联合国成员国及国际公认国家的地位是稳固的。
“Politicians and political parties that act unconstitutionally do not determine the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Fejzic told Al Jazeera, arguing that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s status as a UN member and internationally recognised state is secure.
“无论是谁，只要发表煽动性言论试图阻碍国家融入国际社会、实现发展，最终都将被历史淘汰，”他说道，“这类言论毫无任何政治意义。”政治分析人士塔尼娅·托皮克指出，尽管多迪克并未正式宣布参选，但他依然是此次竞选的核心人物，并试图将自己塑造成“国际事务领域的资深官员”。
“Bosnia and Herzegovina … will outlive all those who, through inflammatory statements, seek to obstruct its path towards integration and development,” he said. “Their statements have no political relevance whatsoever.”Political analyst Tanja Topic said that while Dodik was not officially a candidate, he remained a central figure in the campaign and sought to present himself as a “senior official in international relations”.
托皮克向半岛电视台表示，此次选举结果可能催生多种政治局面：从“塞族共和国内部的权力共存”，到组建大型联合政府，甚至可能出现“国家层面陷入僵局、部长会议只能以临时政府形式继续运作”的情况。
Topic told Al Jazeera that the election result could produce several political scenarios in Bosnia and Herzegovina, from “cohabitation in Republika Srpska”, through the formation of a grand coalition, to a “blockage at the state level and the Council of Ministers continuing to operate in a caretaker capacity”.
多迪克的言论标志着“长期升级趋势” 专家阿德南·切里马吉指出，多迪克的言论必须被“严肃对待”，应将其视为“长期升级趋势”的一部分，而非反映国家的现实状况。
Dodik’s rhetoric marks ‘long escalation’ Expert Adnan Cerimagic said Dodik’s rhetoric should be taken “seriously” and viewed as part of a “long escalation” rather than a reflection of the country’s current reality.
“过去四年里，他破坏《代顿协议》、阻碍国家加入欧盟与北约的行径已达到危险的新程度：2025年3月，塞族共和国与国家警察几乎爆发武装对峙，”欧洲稳定倡议组织高级分析师切里马吉对半岛电视台说道。
“For the past four years, his moves against the Dayton order and against Bosnia’s EU and NATO path have reached a new and dangerous level: in March 2025 the country came close to an armed standoff between Republika Srpska and state police,” Cerimagic, a senior analyst at the European Stability Initiative, told Al Jazeera.
“他将波斯尼亚描绘成基督教与伊斯兰教所谓‘战争’的前线，把自己包装成‘欧洲基督教的捍卫者’，而他的目标正是二战后欧洲唯一一个遭受过种族灭绝、且这一事实已获两家国际法庭认定的民族，”他补充道。
“Casting Bosnia as a front-line in a supposed war between Christianity and Islam, and himself as a defender of Christian Europe, is aimed at the one people in Europe against whom a genocide has been committed since the Second World War and recognised as such by two international courts,” he added.
Cerimagic指出，多迪克的言论或许反映出他对自己青睐的候选人选举前景心存疑虑，同时也表明他认为欧盟对波斯尼亚的影响力已大不如前。
Cerimagic added that Dodik’s rhetoric may reflect uncertainty over the electoral prospects of his preferred candidate, as well as a belief that the European Union has less leverage over Bosnia than it once did.
按照惯例，中央选举委员会会在选举当晚晚些时候公布初步计票结果，此后每隔几小时更新一次。
Initial results are customarily released by the Central Election Commission late on election night and then refreshed every few hours.
在随后的几天里，委员会会陆续录入尚未统计的各投票站的选票、流动投票小组收集的选票，以及邮寄选票和在外交及领事机构投下的选票。最终官方结果最迟须于11月20日公布。
In the days that follow, the commission progressively inputs votes from polling stations that remain outstanding, mobile voting teams, as well as ballots sent by mail and those cast at diplomatic and consular missions. The final, official results must be published by November 20 at the latest.