
斯Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)曾多次表示,人工智能将在未来十年内治愈大多数疾病。上个月底,他声称其公司已迈向这一未来的第一步:Claude在不到24小时内发现了一种新的“酶系统”,该公司称其类似于CRISPR——一种目前正用于治愈患者疾病的基因编辑工具。在宣布这一发现时,Anthropic暗示这是一项能够革新医学的研究成果,并引用了一位基因编辑先驱的话,称其“确实引人入胜”。
Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, has often said that AI will cure most diseases in the next 10 years. Late last month, he claimed that his company had taken a first step toward that future: Claude had, in less than 24 hours, discovered a new “enzyme system” that the company says resembles CRISPR, a gene-editing tool currently curing people of diseases. While announcing the discovery, Anthropic hinted that this was the type of finding that revolutionizes medicine and quoted a gene-editing pioneer who called it “genuinely intriguing.”
该公司坦承,他们尚不清楚具体发现了什么,也不确定这一发现——这是该公司今年春天建立的一个生物实验室发布的首个成果——是否真的具有如此重大的意义。尽管如此,许多学者以及礼来公司(Eli Lilly)的首席执行官都指出,该公司将一项非常渐进式的发现包装成了重大突破。费奥多尔·乌尔诺夫(Fyodor Urnov)是一位科学家,他创造了CRISPR这一术语,并正在与Anthropic合作开展CRISPR项目,他告诉我,关于Claude发现的究竟是否是一种酶,“目前尚无定论”。
The company was open about not knowing what exactly it had spotted or whether the finding—the first released from a biology lab that the company established this spring—was really that significant. Still, many academics, along with the CEO of Eli Lilly, pointed out that the company had dressed up a very incremental finding as a major discovery. Fyodor Urnov, a scientist who coined the term and is working on a CRISPR project with Anthropic, told me that “the jury is out” on whether what Claude found is even an enzyme at all.
多位研究人员透露,事实上,他们多年来就已经知晓这个所谓的新型酶系统,其中包括哥本哈根大学的一个团队,该团队指控Anthropic的新成果可能窃取了他们实验室与Claude互动时产生的数据。对此,该公司回应称,Claude并非使用用户对话记录进行训练的。(Anthropic未就本文的置评请求作出回应。)换言之,Anthropic将一项发现大做文章——尽管这一发现是以Claude主导的创新方式实现的——但它可能不会带来任何生物医学进展,而该公司也心知肚明这一点可能不会带来任何生物医学进展。
Multiple researchers told that, in fact, they had been aware of the supposedly new enzyme system for years, including a team at the University of Copenhagen that alleged Anthropic’s new results might have been stolen from their lab’s interactions with Claude. The company, in response, said that Claude isn’t trained using user transcripts. (Anthropic did not respond to a comment request for this article.) In other words, Anthropic made a big deal about a finding that—although achieved in a novel, Claude-led way—may not lead to any biomedical advances, and that the company knew may not lead to any biomedical advances.
颇具讽刺意味的是,通过发表如此夸大的言论,该公司及其他人工智能吹捧者反而掩盖了Claude似乎确实取得的成就:它梳理了海量的生物数据,如果科学家能够分析的话,这将耗费他们更长的时间。
Ironically, in making such grandiose statements, the company and other AI boosters obscured what Claude does appear to have accomplished: It sorted through reams of biological data that would have taken scientists much longer to analyze, if they could have at all.
这种能力或许算不上奇迹,但对于面对海量数据、已超出自身分析极限的科学家而言,依然意义重大。
This capacity might not be a miracle, but for scientists facing mountains of data that have surpassed their capacity for analysis, it’s still meaningful.
21世纪初,研究人员首次完成了构成人类DNA的30亿个碱基对的测序。这项被称为“人类基因组计划”的工程耗时13年,耗资27亿美元。如今,对一个人的全基因组进行测序仅需一天多一点时间,成本低至200美元。因此,公开可获取的基因组数据总量已大到难以管理的地步。在蛋白质科学等其他领域,技术进步也带来了数据收集量的类似爆发式增长。
Around the turn of the 21st century, researchers sequenced for the first time all 3 billion letters that make up human DNA. This effort, called the Human Genome Project, took 13 years and cost $2.7 billion. Today, sequencing a person’s full genome takes just over a day and costs as little as $200. Accordingly, the total amount of publicly available genomic data has become so large as to be unmanageable. In other fields, such as protein science, technological advances have led to a similar boom in the sheer amount of data being collected.
如何从海量数据中提炼有用信息,本身已成为一项长期工程。2012年,一个生物信息学专家委员会发现,“科学生产力的瓶颈”已从数据生产转移到了数据分析,但美国国立卫生研究院(NIH)早期应对这一瓶颈的努力很快便陷入停滞。如果研究人员能高效地存储、传输和检视他们生成的所有信息,他们极有可能通过识别更优的基因或细胞靶点来开发新药。但数据量实在太大,他们根本无法全面应对。
Trying to pull anything useful from all that data has become its own long-term project. In 2012, a committee of bioinformatics experts found that the “bottleneck in scientific productivity” had moved from data production to data analysis, but early efforts at the National Institutes of Health to deal with that bottleneck quickly sputtered out. If researchers could efficiently store, send, and examine all of the information they generated, they would likely be able to, for example, develop new drugs by identifying better genes or cellular parts to target. But it’s simply too massive for them to comprehensively attack.
生物语料库对AI智能体而言,并非大得难以驾驭。多伦多大学助理教授、一家药物发现公司首席AI科学家Bo Wang近日撰文指出,AI在生物学领域最大的影响将来自于其帮助“扩大科学关注的规模”:将智能体投入海量数据集中,能筛选出值得人类进一步检视的异常值。智能体能针对发现的异常模式提出并检验假设,预测建模则能帮助科学家决定在实验台上开展哪些实验。
The biological corpus is not, however, too large for AI agents. Bo Wang, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto and the chief AI scientist at a drug-discovery company, recently wrote that AI’s biggest impact in biology will come from its help “scaling scientific attention”: Setting agents loose on the enormous data sets can surface the outliers that warrant further human inspection. Agents can propose and test hypotheses for what might cause the unusual patterns they find, and predictive modeling can help scientists choose what experiments to carry out on their actual lab benches.
最终,自动化实验室甚至可能执行这些选定的实验——美国已有少数此类实验室,特朗普政府正投入数亿美元建设更多。与此同时,科学界对于AI模型究竟是引导他们走向潜在的范式转移式实验,还是更稳妥、探索性较弱的实验,仍存在分歧。
Eventually, automated labs might even carry out those chosen experiments—a few already exist in the United States, and the Trump administration is spending hundreds of millions to establish more. Meanwhile, scientists remain divided over whether AI models actually steer them toward potentially paradigm-shifting experiments, or safer, less exploratory ones.
AI已在改变医学:利用病史预测健康风险(包括患特定癌症的可能性)的模型,现已在大多数美国医院投入使用。同时,并非所有生物学领域都能产生足够数据供此法适用。哈佛医学院遗传学教授Stirling Churchman表示,在依赖较少显微镜数据的领域(如细胞与组织通讯研究),AI作用可能较小;此类数据比基因序列更难获取。细胞器生物学和细胞运输科学同样需要繁琐耗时的实验。
AI is already changing medicine: Models that use people’s medical history to predict their health risks, including their likelihood of developing certain kinds of cancer, are now used in most U.S. hospitals. At the same time, not every field of biology generates enough data for this approach to work. AI might be less useful in some domains that rely on less abundant microscopy data, such as the study of how cells and tissues communicate; such data tend to be harder to come by than genetic sequences, Stirling Churchman, a professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School, told me. Organelle biology and the science of cellular transport similarly require painstaking, time-consuming experiments.
不过,丘曼说:“有数据的地方,就会有魔法。”整个夏天,她都在OpenAI参与开发一款专为生命科学研究人员训练的模型。她预计,通过让不懂编程的科学家自行查看数据,人工智能将使研究人员“至少将数据分析速度提高10倍,从而让我们把更多时间用于生物学问题和实验”。Anthropic最近的发现就是一个例子,说明人工智能能够识别原本可能被忽略的异常值。
Still, Churchman said, “there will be magic where there’s data.”She spent the summer at OpenAI working on a specially trained model for life-science researchers. She anticipates that by allowing scientists who can’t code to examine their data themselves, AI will enable researchers to “analyze data at least 10 times faster, freeing us to spend more time on the biological questions and experiments.”The recent Anthropic finding is an example of how AI can identify outliers that might otherwise have gone unnoticed.
现有工具可以筛查海量基因组数据(而且已经被用于发现真正的新型基因编辑系统)。犹他大学计算生物学实验室负责人肯德尔·克莱门特告诉我,人工智能能够以大得多的规模开展这类分析,同时还能对中间结果进行评估。当然,这种规模需要投入相应庞大的资源:Anthropic调集约950个Claude机器人,同时仔细研究一个包含近20亿条DNA记录的数据库。
Existing tools can comb through heaps of genomic data (and have already been used to identify bona fide new gene-editing systems). What AI can do is run those kinds of analyses at a much larger scale, while also evaluating intermediary results, Kendell Clement, who runs a computational-biology lab at the University of Utah, told me. Of course, that scale requires dumping in correspondingly huge resources: Anthropic directed about 950 Claude bots to simultaneously pore over a database that contained nearly 2 billion DNA entries.
随着针对这些公司的反弹不断加剧,人工智能公司有充分理由继续大力宣扬其模型将带来的医疗奇迹。阿莫代想出了一个让人工智能怀疑者闭嘴的办法。他最近在X上写道:“真正有效的办法,其实是治愈癌症。”这无疑会是一件了不起的成就。但帮助科学家更快地开展工作同样具有价值,尽管它听起来没那么具有革命性。
AI companies have every incentive to keep evangelizing about the medical miracles they say their models will unlock, especially as backlash against them mounts. Amodei has an idea for how to quiet AI skeptics: “The thing that will work is actually curing cancer,” he recently wrote on X. That would certainly be a coup. But helping scientists work more quickly is, too, even if it doesn’t sound quite so revolutionary.