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亚洲黄金生产商在价格上涨后开始囤积国内供应Asian gold producers begin hoarding domestic supplies after price rises

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东京——亚洲各国正在加大力度,争取获取近期黄金热潮产生的更多价值,采取措施增加本国矿山黄金产量的提炼,或通过征税和央行购金来抑制出口。

TOKYO-- Countries across Asia are stepping up efforts to capture more of the value generated by the recent gold boom, moving to increase refining of the gold production from their own mines or discourage exports through taxes and central bank purchases.

伦敦现货金价于2008年首次达到每金衡盎司1000美元,2020年突破2000美元,今年1月攀升至5500美元以上的历史新高,目前仍维持在4000美元上方。

The London spot gold price, which first reached $1,000 per troy ounce in 2008 and surpassed $2,000 in 2020, climbed to a record high above $5,500 in January this year and remains above $4,000.

长期出口低价值矿石的新兴经济体——包括老挝等亚洲国家——正越来越意识到脚下土地蕴藏的财富。这种觉醒——一种新形式的资源民族主义——可能在中长期对金价构成上行压力。

Emerging economies -- including Asian nations such as Laos -- that long exported low-value ore are becoming more conscious of the wealth beneath their soil. That awakening -- a new form of resource nationalism -- could exert upward pressure on gold prices over the medium to long term.

在缺乏提炼能力的国家,金矿石往往被走私出境。尽管没有价格统计数据,但据信这些价格远低于市场价值。

In countries without refining capabilities, gold ore is often smuggled out of the country. Although there are no price statistics, it is believed that these prices are significantly below market value.

老挝总理宋赛·西潘敦在9月初的一个旨在促进国内贵金属市场发展的活动上宣称:“老挝人民民主共和国政府将发展黄金产业视为巩固经济基础的重中之重。”

"The government of [the] Lao [People's Democratic Republic] considers the development of the gold industry a key priority in strengthening our economic foundation," Laotian Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone declared in early September at an event aimed at fostering the country's domestic precious-metals market.

老挝预计最早将于2026年从联合国最不发达国家名单中毕业,但收入水平仍远低于泰国等邻国。这个东南亚国家正寄希望于其金矿床成为增加国家财富的来源。

Laos is expected to graduate from the United Nations' list of least developed countries as early as 2026, yet income levels remain well below those of neighbors such as Thailand. The Southeast Asian country is looking to its gold deposits as a source of greater national wealth.

根据政府的设想,老挝开采的黄金将在国内提炼,使更多增值收益留在国内。

Under the government's vision, gold mined in Laos would be refined domestically, allowing more of the value added to remain within the country.

据代表主要黄金开采公司的国际会员组织世界黄金协会及研究咨询公司Metals Focus称,老挝2025年产出约12吨矿产金,位居亚洲第六大产金国。当局估计该国储量为500至1000吨。

According to the World Gold Council, an international membership organization representing major gold-mining companies and research consultancy Metals Focus, Laos produced around 12 tons of mined gold in 2025, the sixth-largest output in Asia. The authorities estimate the country's reserves at 500 to 1,000 tons.

直到现在,其中大部分黄金仍以矿石形式通过官方和非官方渠道流出国外。

Until now, much of that gold has left the country as ore, through both official and unofficial channels.

2024年,政府成立了老挝金银银行,这是一家由本地公司共同出资的专业黄金银行。

In 2024, the government established the Lao Bullion Bank, a specialized gold bank jointly capitalized by local companies.

该行正利用这一机构作为枢纽,迅速扩展国内贵金属市场基础设施,包括提炼产能。

It is using the institution as the hub of a rapid expansion of domestic precious-metals market infrastructure, including refining capacity.

该举措旨在提高黄金在老挝外汇储备中的占比,同时为民众提供一个值得信赖的买卖黄金、保值储蓄的场所。"自LBB成立两年来,他们建立这些基础设施的速度令人惊叹。你能感受到举国上下推动这项工作的决心,"出席该活动的日本金地金市场协会(JBMA)理事长池水武夫(Bruce Ikemizu)表示。

The initiative aims to increase gold's share in Laos's foreign-exchange reserves, while giving citizens a trusted venue to buy and sell gold and preserve their savings. "The speed with which they have put this infrastructure in place in the two years since the LBB was founded is astonishing. You could sense the determination of the entire country behind the effort," said Bruce Ikemizu, chief director of the Japan Bullion Market Association (JBMA), who attended the event.

LBB于1月与JBMA签署了谅解备忘录。"我们寻求将老日合作拓展至黄金行业,"LBB首席执行官Chanthone Sitthixay博士表示。通过借鉴日本运营成熟贵金属市场的专业经验,LBB旨在加速该国黄金市场基础设施的发展。老挝金银银行旨在利用老挝开采的黄金生产金条。

LBB signed a memorandum of understanding with JBMA in January. "We seek to expand Lao-Japan cooperation into the gold industry," said Dr. Chanthone Sitthixay, chief executive officer of LBB. By drawing on Japan's expertise in operating a mature precious-metals market, LBB aims to accelerate the development of the country's gold-market infrastructure. Lao Bullion Bank aims to produce bullion from gold mined in Laos.

印度尼西亚同样决心遏制黄金外流。作为世界第十大黄金生产国,印尼年产黄金超过100吨,但国内供应仍不足以满足不断增长的投资需求。政府去年宣布自2026年起征收高达15%的黄金出口税。

Indonesia is equally determined to stem the outflow of its gold. The world's 10th-largest producer mines more than 100 tons a year, yet domestic supply is still insufficient to meet growing investment demand. The government announced last year an export tax of up to 15% on gold, effective from 2026.

作为世界最大黄金生产国,中国也在寻求将更多黄金留在国内。中国年产黄金略超380吨,约占全球产量的十分之一,同时仍是主要进口国。"原则上,携带黄金出境受到限制,"市场分析师Jeff Toshima表示。

China, the world's largest producer, is also seeking to keep more of its gold at home. It mines a little over 380 tons a year, roughly a tenth of global output, while remaining a major importer. "As a rule, taking gold out of the country is restricted," said market analyst Jeff Toshima.

中国在境内积累黄金的势头正在增强。中国人民银行8月增持20吨黄金,标志着其连续第22个月净买入,这是自1999年12月有可比数据以来最长的连续增持纪录。围绕贵金属的资源民族主义在非洲也在蔓延。

China's drive to accumulate gold within its borders is gathering momentum. The People's Bank of China added 20 tons to its holdings in August, marking its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases, the longest such streak since comparable data began in December 1999. Resource nationalism surrounding the precious metal is spreading in Africa as well.

马达加斯加中央银行自2020年代起一直在购买国产黄金,当局还建立了官方购买渠道,作为国家努力的一部分,旨在让更多黄金留在国内。

Madagascar's central bank has been buying domestically produced gold since 2020s, while the authorities have established official purchasing channels as part of a national effort to keep more of the metal in the country.

“考虑到马达加斯加的黄金资源,马达加斯加中央银行实施的黄金购买计划(DPP)仍是这一储备多元化战略的基石,”该行黄金业务主管Jao Rabemananjara表示。

"Given Madagascar's gold resources, the Gold Purchase Program (DPP) implemented by Central Bank of Madagascar remains the cornerstone of this reserve diversification strategy," said Jao Rabemananjara, Gold Operations Supervisor of the bank.

在全球第六大黄金生产国加纳,政府于7月与世界黄金协会(WGC)签署谅解备忘录,以深化合作,遏制非法采矿并提升黄金供应链的完整性。

In Ghana, the world's sixth-largest producer, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with the WGC in July to deepen cooperation to curb illegal mining and improve the integrity of gold supply chains.

土地与自然资源部长Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah表示,政府正在加大力度,确保“加纳黄金资源的收益能由我们的社区和整个国家共享。”

Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah, the minister for lands and natural resources, said the government was stepping up its efforts to ensure "that the benefits of Ghana's gold resources are realized by our communities and our nation as a whole."

产金国更加关注本国黄金的一个原因,是对美元作为世界储备货币的信心正在减弱。

One reason producing countries are taking a closer look at their own gold is waning confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.

与华盛顿关系不睦国家的美元计价资产因制裁被冻结,这强化了过度依赖美元带有风险的观点。

Dollar-denominated assets belonging to countries at odds with Washington have been frozen under sanctions, reinforcing the view that excessive dependence on the currency carries risks.

“随着以美元为中心的全球金融市场结构受到审视,黄金作为一种不受任何单一国家政治和财政政策影响的资产,其重要性日益凸显,”安盛银行(ANZ)日本外汇与大宗商品销售总监Geullim Yum表示。

"As the dollar-centered structure of global financial markets comes under scrutiny, gold is gaining importance as an asset insulated from the political and fiscal policies of any single country," said Geullim Yum, director of Japan foreign exchange and commodity sales at banking multinational ANZ.

过去30年里,金价上涨了约12倍。中国和其他新兴经济体加快努力,提高黄金在其外汇储备中的占比,而不断增长的投资需求则为金价提供了进一步支撑。

Gold prices have risen roughly 12-fold over the past 30 years. China and other emerging economies accelerated efforts to increase gold's share of their foreign-exchange reserves, while growing investment demand provided further support for prices.

鉴于涉及巨大价值,产金国有强烈动机为本国发展获取更多黄金价值。

With so much value at stake, producing nations have a strong incentive to capture more of it for their own development.

黄金交易仍集中在伦敦、纽约等西方金融中心,但在供给端,新兴经济体的矿山扮演着日益重要的角色。

Gold trading remains concentrated in Western financial centers such as London and New York, but on the supply side, mines in emerging economies play an increasingly important role.

历史提供了先例。"殖民地的黄金流入伦敦,帮助支撑了大英帝国的金本位制,"丰岛指出。

History offers a precedent. "Gold from the colonies flowed into London and helped underpin the British Empire's gold standard," Toshima noted.

产金国有权让本国黄金为自身发展服务,但这样做也可能导致国际市场上流通的黄金减少。"从主要国际精炼商的角度来看……绝对会影响他们的采购能力,"总部位于新加坡的Metals Focus董事总经理Nikos Kavalis表示。

Producer countries are entitled to put their gold to work for their own development, but doing so may also leave less metal circulating in international markets. "From the perspective of major international refiners ... absolutely this trend will have an impact on their ability to source," said Nikos Kavalis, the Singapore-based managing director of Metals Focus.

随着资源民族主义在产金国中抬头,由此导致的国际可用供应受限,可能在几年内成为支撑金价上涨的另一因素。

As resource nationalism takes a firmer hold among gold-producing countries, the resulting constraint on internationally available supply could, within a few years, emerge as another factor supporting higher prices.

员工在乌干达共和国非洲黄金精炼厂的精炼过程中,将液态黄金倒入模具生产金锭。

Employees pour liquid gold into a mould for the production of an ingot during the refining process at African Gold Refinery in Republic of Uganda.

近期金价表现疲软。目前受美联储加息预期和长期利率上升拖累。9月28日交易中,金价达到每金衡盎司4110美元。这较8月下旬逼近4700美元的近期高点下跌了12%。

Gold prices have been lackluster recently. It is now weighed down by expectations of U.S. interest-rate hikes and rising long-term interest rates. The price reached $4,110 per troy ounce in trading on Sept. 28. This represents a 12% decline from the recent peak in late August, when the price approached $4,700.

美联储9月加息,这是三年多来首次加息,市场预期其在年底前至少还将再加息一次。

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time in more than three years, and market expectations are growing that it will implement at least one more rate hike before the end of the year.

在美国当前这种预期多次加息的情况下,金价承压下行的态势可能会持续,直到政策利率的最终水平变得明朗。

In situations like the current one in the U.S., where multiple rate hikes are expected, downward pressure on gold prices is likely to persist until the ultimate level of the policy rate becomes clear.

然而,从长远来看,支撑金价的结构性因素正在表面之下持续积聚。产金国的资源民族主义以及对美元作为世界储备货币信心的减弱,都是重塑市场的力量之一。

Viewed from a longer-term perspective, however, structural factors that could support gold prices continue to build beneath the surface. Resource nationalism among gold-producing countries and waning confidence in the dollar as the world's reserve currency are among the forces reshaping the market.

“从长远来看,产金国的举措可能成为推高金价的另一个因素,”澳新银行的Yum表示。

"In the long run, the actions of producer countries could become another factor pushing gold prices higher," ANZ's Yum said.