随着西方人口老龄化，劳动力减少和成本上升将给公共财政带来压力，信用评级机构穆迪发出警告。
As Western populations age, fewer workers and higher costs will strain public finances, credit rating agency Moody's has warned.
欧洲正处于这一人口结构变化的最前沿。根据欧盟委员会的预测，欧盟人口最早将于2029年达到顶峰，“随后将开始持续的长期下降”。
Europe is at the sharp end of the demographic shift. The European Union's population is projected to peak as soon as 2029, "after which a sustained long-term decline will begin," according to the European Commission.
美国人口普查局预计，在其主要预测情景下，美国人口要到2080年才会达到顶峰，而在低移民情景下则会在2043年见顶。若不计算移民影响，人口下降已经开始。
The U.S. Census Bureau does not expect the American population to peak until 2080 under its main projection, or until 2043 under its low-immigration scenario. Excluding immigration impact, the population decline has already started.
但穆迪表示，人口老龄化带来的财政压力会在人口实际开始萎缩之前很久就显现出来。
But Moody's says the fiscal pressures from aging emerge long before populations actually start shrinking.
目前，七国集团（G7）经济体每有一名65岁以上老人，就有约三名劳动年龄人口。穆迪预计，到2050年，这一比例将降至约两比一，进一步给经济增长和公共财政（包括医疗体系）带来压力。
Today, G7 economies have about three working-age people for every person over 65. That ratio is expected to fall to around two by 2050, putting further pressure on growth and public finances, including healthcare systems, according to Moody's.
穆迪信用战略与标准部副总裁奥利维耶·舍姆拉周五在CNBC节目“Squawk Box Europe”中表示，人口老龄化通过经济增长放缓、养老和护理成本增加对公共财政造成更大压力、消费需求变化，以及实际利率和主权债券收益率的转变来影响经济。
Aging populations affect economies through slower economic growth, greater pressure on public finances from pension and care costs, changing consumer demand, and shifts in real interest rates and sovereign yields, Olivier Chemla, vice president of credit strategy and standards at Moody's, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday.
穆迪在上周发布的一份报告中预测，全球人口老龄化将对世界经济产生根本性影响，并导致艰难的政策决策。
In a report published last week, Moody's forecasts that the world's aging populations will have fundamental impacts on the global economy and lead to difficult policy decisions.
穆迪写道，长期以来人口增长一直是经济增长和信用资质的顺风因素，但生育率下降和年龄结构变化的前所未有的速度正在改变这一局面。
While population growth has long been a tailwind for growth and creditworthiness, falling fertility rates and unprecedented speed of changing age structures are now changing that picture, Moody's writes.
报告指出：“劳动力减少将限制生产能力，而家庭和消费者减少将削弱需求。因此，各国将不得不更多地依赖生产率来维持增长。”
"Fewer workers will limit productive capacity, while fewer households and consumers will weaken demand. As a result, countries will have to rely more on productivity to sustain growth," the report states.
舍姆拉表示，人工智能和生产率提高只能部分抵消劳动力老龄化带来的长期挑战。
AI and increased productivity can only partially offset the long-term challenge of an aging workforce, Chemla said.
这是一种部分缓解措施，因为你当然可以在工厂和服务业中替代并强化经济的供给侧，但与此同时，机器人不消费——至少目前还不消费——因此在需求侧，你仍将面临这一缺口，这将拖累增长，"他补充道。
"This is a partial mitigant because you can certainly replace and enhance the supply side of the economy in factories and in services, but at the same time, robots do not consume – at least not yet – and so on the demand side, you will still be having that gap, which will slow growth," he added.
不仅是欧洲和美国，新兴经济体也在迅速老龄化。过去二十年里，中国65岁及以上人口占比从7%翻倍至14%，巴西、泰国和土耳其也处于类似轨迹上。
And it's not only Europe and the U.S., but emerging economies are aging rapidly, too. China's share of people aged 65 and over has doubled from 7% to 14% over the past two decades, with Brazil, Thailand and Turkiye on similar trajectories.
报告称，这些国家将在比先行老龄化的发达经济体低得多的收入水平上面临老龄化成本，并指出在欧洲，同样的转变花费了数十年时间。
These countries will face the costs of aging at much lower income levels than the advanced economies that aged before them, the report says, noting that in Europe, the same shift took several decades.