梅格·肖特（Meg Short）报道，伦敦最昂贵房产市场正陷入低迷，并即将跨越一道曾经被认为不可逾越的门槛。
The downturn gripping London’s priciest properties is on course to cross a once unthinkable threshold.
自2014年峰值以来，莱坊（Savills）伦敦顶级房产指数已下跌约27%。税收、政治和经济冲击的叠加效应，令这座城市最顶级住宅的业主经历了长达十余年的痛苦。彭博新闻社的分析显示，将莱坊数据与消费者价格指数结合后，剔除通胀因素的实际跌幅超过49%。
Savills’ Prime London index is down about 27% since its peak in 2014, as a cocktail of taxes, political and economic shocks have created more than a decade of misery for the owners of the city’s finest homes. When the Savills data is combined with the consumer price index, the real-terms drop once inflation is factored in is more than 49%, a Bloomberg News analysis shows. If values merely remain flat and inflation continues at its current rate, then prices are on track to have halved from their 2014 peak in the first few months of next year.
如果房价仅保持持平，且通胀维持在当前水平，那么明年年初几个月内，价格将从2014年的峰值减半。莱坊最新预测显示，名义价格增长预计要到2028年才会回归。
Savills does not expect nominal price growth to return until 2028, its latest forecasts show. “There probably isn’t the stimulus for a recovery,” Savills head of residential research Lucian Cook said in an interview.
莱坊住宅研究主管卢西安·库克（Lucian Cook）在接受采访时表示：“可能缺乏推动复苏的刺激因素。人们期待已久的复苏不仅受环境制约，还受到印花税的拖累。”自时任英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）在2014年启动一系列改革以来，伦敦高端住房市场一直陷入停滞，这些改革大幅提高了最昂贵住宅的交易税。此后，历任财政大臣又陆续对房东、第二套住房持有者、海外买家以及通过公司而非个人名义购房的人群加征了附加费。
“That long awaited recovery is held back not just by circumstances but by stamp duty.”London’s high-end housing market has been in the doldrums since then Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne kicked off a series of changes in 2014 that would significantly increase transaction taxes for the most expensive homes. Successive chancellors have since added surcharges on landlords and second home owners, overseas purchasers and those buying property through companies rather than in their own names.
英国脱欧、新冠疫情、财富税的增加，以及伦敦作为超级富豪中心地位日益受到威胁，进一步加剧了挑战，导致这座城市最顶级住宅的价值大幅崩盘。对于以美元计价的买家而言，鉴于该时期英镑的贬值，跌幅更为显著。
The shocks of Brexit, the pandemic, increasing wealth taxes and the growing threat to London’s status as a hub for the super rich have added to the list of challanges, exacerbating the collapse in values of the city’s finest residences. For dollar based buyers, the reduction is even starker given the decline of the pound over the period.
伦敦顶级房产指数27%的跌幅，相当于美国买家的名义跌幅达40%。若计入美国通胀因素，跌幅将达到58%。库克表示：“这意味着目前看起来性价比非常高。”
The 27% drop in the prime London index equates to a 40% drop in nominal terms for American buyers. Factor in US inflation and the plunge would be 58%. “It means it is looking very good value,” Cook said.
世邦魏理仕的指数可追溯至1979年，旨在反映伦敦最热门区域中顶级房产的价格走势。此次最新的下跌，发生在全球金融危机后伦敦高端住宅价格经历一波强劲增长之后。
Savills’ index dates back to 1979 and seeks to replicate the price movements of the best properties in London’s most sought-after districts. The latest downturn comes after a burst of exceptional growth in prime London house prices following the global financial crisis.
Cook表示，在当前的市场调整之前的35年间，房价年增长率比通货膨胀率高出约5%。
In the 35-years preceding the current correction, price growth was about 5% above inflation, Cook said.
近期交易的成交价也反映出当前市场下跌的幅度。据Harwood Advisory创始人Sami Roberston称，肯辛顿Academy Gardens的一套公寓最近以约1000万英镑（1330万美元）的价格售出，仅为2007年最初挂牌价格的一半左右。
The scale of the current downturn can be seen in recent transaction prices. An apartment at Academy Gardens in Kensington recently sold for about £10 million ($13.3 million), roughly half the level for which it was previously marketed in 2007, according to Sami Roberston, founder of Harwood Advisory.