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彭博社

SSE:英国燃气发电厂或可运行至2030年代UK’s Gas-Power Plants Could Keep Running Into 2030s, SSE Says

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埃蒙·阿基尔·法拉特撰文随着可再生能源快速扩张,SSE公司如今预计,其大多数发电机组将运行至2030年代中期;英国在未来十年很长一段时间内仍需要燃气发电厂来保障电力供应。

Great Britain will need gas-fired power plants well into the next decade to shore up supplies, with SSE Plc now expecting most of its fleet to remain open into the mid-2030s despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy.

这一前景对该苏格兰公用事业公司而言是一次转变。此前,其首席执行官马丁·皮布沃思曾预计,随着英国迈向更清洁的电力系统,该公司三座大型燃气电厂将在本十年结束前达到运营寿命终点。英国许多燃气电厂建于20世纪90年代末,运营商正面临越来越高的维护成本,以维持这些电厂运行。

The outlook marks a shift for the Scottish utility, whose Chief Executive Officer Martin Pibworth had previously expected three of its large gas plants to reach the end of their operating life by the end of this decade as the nation moves toward a cleaner power system. Many of the nation’s gas plants were built in the late 1990s and operators are facing rising maintenance costs to keep them in use.

这一变化凸显了英国在日益依赖间歇性风能和太阳能发电的情况下保障供电所面临的挑战。尽管电池储能和需求侧响应措施也在快速扩张,但其启动速度无法与燃气发电厂相比。

The change underscores the challenge of keeping the lights on as Britain becomes increasingly reliant on intermittent wind and solar. While batteries and demand-side response measures are also expanding quickly, they can’t compete with the speed gas-fired plants can fire up.

“鉴于对这种灵活调度的现实需求,我预计到2030年代中期,我们大多数燃气电厂仍会运行,但今后的负荷因子会低得多。”皮布沃思在彭博伦敦办公室接受采访时表示。

“I would expect most of our gas plants would still be functioning in the mid 2030s as the reality of needing that flexibility, but functioning on much lower load factors going forward,” Pibworth said in an interview at Bloomberg’s London office.

英国政府的目标是到2030年让至少95%的电力来自清洁能源,但这一目标仍存在不确定性。能源大臣米亚塔·法恩布利利重申了“冲刺实现清洁电力”的承诺。不过,她称这一目标由其前任埃德·米利班德制定,具有挑战性,并未支持95%这一数字。

Pibworth’s comments come as uncertainty hangs over the government’s target for at least 95% of electricity generation to come from clean sources by 2030. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has reaffirmed her commitment to a “sprint to clean power.”But she has described the goal - set under her predecessor Ed Miliband- as a stretch and stopped short of backing the 95% figure.

如果政府缩减对碳捕集与封存技术的支持,减少对未经减排天然气发电的依赖可能会变得更加困难。彭博周五报道称,能源部正在寻找节省开支的办法,部长们正考虑削减对碳捕集与封存技术的支持。

Reducing reliance on unabated gas could become harder if the government scales back support for carbon capture. Ministers are considering cuts to CCS as the energy department looks for savings, Bloomberg reported Friday.

然而,距离本十年结束仅剩几年,燃气发电厂在电力结构中的占比仍接近四分之一。

Yet, with just a few years to go until the end of the decade, gas-fired plants are still contributing by almost a quarter of the power mix.

根据SSE的说法,随着这些电站运行频率降低,但作为备用电源仍不可或缺,为保障其可用性而支付的款项对其经济性将变得愈发重要。英国实行容量市场机制,向发电商支付费用,以确保其电厂在系统需要时始终可用。

As the stations run less frequently, but remain essential as backup, payments to keep them available will become much more important for their economics, according to SSE. The nation operates a capacity market that pays generators to ensure their plants are always available when the system needs them.

然而,对燃气发电的依赖将带来成本。彭博社利用电网数据计算发现,在今年前九个月中,当燃气发电占比至少达到40%的时段,英国日前电力价格平均约为每兆瓦时153英镑,比整体平均水平高出约41%。

But the reliance on gas-fired power will come at a cost. UK day-ahead power prices averaged about £153 per megawatt-hour during periods when gas supplied at least 40% of generation in the first nine months of the year. That’s about 41% above the overall average, according to Bloomberg calculations using grid data.

皮沃斯(Pibworth)近30年前在SSE担任能源交易员起步,他指出,衡量燃气发电盈利能力的“火花价差”(spark-spreads)在今年冬季和明年夏季均为负值。他表示,这表明运营商投资新建燃气电厂的意愿将降低。

Pibworth, who got his start as an energy trader at SSE almost 30 years ago, pointed out that spark-spreads, the measure of profitability by generating power from gas, are negative for this winter as well as next summer. That would indicate a lower incentive for operators to invest in new gas plants, he said.

这也凸显了安迪·伯纳姆(Andy Burnham)政府面临的挑战,该政府已将能源可负担性置于其议程的核心。上个月,法恩布勒(Fahnbulleh)在纽约举行的彭博绿色峰会上表示,可负担性是她最优先的事项,甚至高于气候变化。但她同时主张,两者需要相同的解决方案——即降低该国对燃气电厂的依赖。

It also highlights the challenge for Andy Burnham’s government which has put energy affordability at the heart of its agenda. Last month, Fahnbulleh told the Bloomberg Green Summit in New York that affordability is her top priority and above climate change. But she also argued that they require the same solution — reducing the nation’s reliance on gas-fired power plants.