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欧元区9月商业活动以41个月来最快速度增长Eurozone business activity grows at fastest pace in 41 months in September

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欧元区私营部门活动在9月以近三年半来的最快速度扩张。标普全球周一表示,综合采购经理指数(PMI)升至41个月以来的高位。

Eurozone private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years in September, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to a 41-month high, S&P Global said on Monday.

综合PMI产出指数由8月的52.0升至53.1,服务业商业活动指数也由51.6升至10个月以来的高位53.0。高于50的读数表明经济活动扩张,低于这一门槛则意味着收缩。

The final composite PMI output index climbed to 53.1 from 52.0 in August, while the services business activity index increased to a 10-month high of 53.0 from 51.6. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that threshold signal contraction.

随着需求改善和就业增加,制造业和服务业产出增长双双加速,为强劲的第三季度收官。

Output growth accelerated across both manufacturing and services, rounding off a robust third quarter as demand improved and employment increased.

综合调查覆盖的五个国家均录得增长,为去年11月以来首次。西班牙领涨,爱尔兰紧随其后德国的复苏也在加速。意大利和法国则录得较为温和的增长。

All five countries covered by the composite survey recorded growth for the first time since November. Spain led the expansion, followed by Ireland, while Germany’s upturn accelerated. Italy and Franceed more modest growth.

新订单以41个月来最快速度增加,海外客户订单增幅也创下四年半多以来最强水平,推动新订单增长。

New orders increased at their fastest pace in 41 months, supported by the strongest rise in orders from foreign clients in more than 4 1/2 years.

未完成工作量自2022年6月以来首次增加,促使企业增聘员工,但就业增长仍较为微弱。

Outstanding work increased for the first time since June 2022, prompting companies to hire additional staff, although employment growth remained marginal.

“PMI调查释放的总体信号显示,GDP有望按季环比增长0.4%,随着进入第四季度,增长动能正在增强。”标普全球市场 intelligence 首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉森表示。

“The collective signal from the PMI surveys is one of GDP growing at a 0.4% quarterly rate, with momentum accelerating as we head into the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

他说,在人工智能投资的推动下,信息技术相关服务实现特别强劲的增长,尽管能源价格上涨,面向消费者的服务仍保持韧性。

He said IT-related services showed particularly strong growth, supported by artificial intelligence investments, while consumer-oriented services remained resilient despite higher energy prices.

通胀压力也加剧,投入成本和售价以5月以来最快速度上涨。服务业企业收费涨幅达到2024年2月以来最大。

Inflationary pressures also intensified, with input costs and selling prices rising at their fastest rates since May. Services firms increased their charges at the sharpest pace since February 2024.

威廉森表示:“与此同时,调查显示价格压力重新上升,这暗示欧元区通胀率更接近4%,而非欧洲央行2%的目标。”

“A renewed upturn in price pressures signalled by the survey meanwhile hints at eurozone inflation running closer to 4% than the ECB’s (European Central Bank's) 2% target,” Williamson said.

他补充称,考虑到经济增长正在加速,这些数据将引发市场对更激进货币政策收紧的猜测。

Combined with accelerating growth, the figures would fuel speculation about more aggressive monetary policy tightening, he added.