杰西卡·法利斯（Jessica Fallis）最初担心，在2023年大选期间，她在卡尔加里肖（Calgary-Shaw）为艾伯塔省新民主党拉票时会被门关上，这次大选推动了联合保守党获得第二多数席位。
Jessica Fallis initially feared getting doors slammed in her face canvassing for Alberta’s New Democratic Party in Calgary-Shaw during the 2023 general election campaign that propelled the United Conservative Party to its second majority.
但法利斯说，在最近的补选中，新民主党在卡尔加里最南部的挨家挨户拉票要容易得多。
But door-to-door canvassing for the NDP in the far south Calgary riding was a lot easier in the recent byelection, Fallis says.
法利斯说：“门口的一些选民会说，‘我会投票给丹妮尔·史密斯和UCP以外的任何东西。’”9月，新民主党人凯尔·坎贝尔（Kyle Campbell）在一个长期选举保守派政客的选区以近600票的优势击败了UCP的迈克·德里（Mike Derry）。
“Some of the [voters at the] doors,” said Fallis, “would be, ‘I'm going to vote for anything but Danielle Smith and the UCP.’”New Democrat Kyle Campbell defeated the UCP’s Mike Derry in September by nearly 600 votes in a constituency with a long history of electing conservative politicians.
阿尔伯塔省新民主党在卡尔加里-肖补选中获胜UCP总理丹妮尔·史密斯可能引发了独立公投，一位长期阿尔伯塔省政治观察家表示，因为她“想向她的铁杆支持者证明她致力于直接民主”，但她为满足党内忠实人士而做出的努力可能无意中为反对党新民主党注入了活力。
Alberta NDP win in Calgary-Shaw byelection UCP Premier Danielle Smith may have triggered the independence referendum, according to one longtime Alberta political watcher because she “wanted to prove to her hardcore base she was committed to direct democracy,” but her efforts to satisfy the party faithful may have unintentionally breathed life into the opposition NDP.
新民主党主席赫思·威尔逊（Heth Wilson）在接受加拿大广播公司新闻采访时表示：“公投意味着我们正在吸引该省各地想要参与的人们。”
“The referendum has meant we are attracting people from across the province who want to get involved,” said Heth Wilson, president of the NDP, in an interview with CBC News.
关注我们所有艾伯塔省公投报道UCP的政治麻烦最近的一项加拿大广播公司新闻民意调查显示，艾伯塔省选民对史密斯个人的印象以及对她执政的UCP的支持近几个月来有所下滑，UCP现在基本上与反对党新民主党并驾齐驱。新民主党在战场卡尔加里领先八个百分点。
Follow all of our Alberta referendum coverage Political trouble for UCP A recent CBC News poll suggests Alberta voters’ impressions of Smith personally and support for her governing UCP have slipped in recent months, with the UCP now essentially neck-and-neck with the opposition NDP New Democrats lead by eight points in battleground Calgary.
今年春天，UCP和史密斯仍然享受着自拉尔夫·克莱因时代以来最长的蜜月期。
This past spring, the UCP and Smith still enjoyed the longest honeymoon period since the Ralph Klein era.
除了失去保守派据点卡尔加里-肖之外，史密斯还在她的党内面临着围绕政治“烫手山芋”的日益不满，该“烫手山芋”已成为10月19日询问艾伯塔省是否应该继续是加拿大的一个省的公投。
On top of losing the conservative stronghold of Calgary-Shaw, Smith faces simmering frustrations within her party surrounding the political “hot potato” that has become the Oct. 19 referendum asking if Alberta should remain a province of Canada.
“意想不到的后果之一是，新民主党的产能增加了。这为新民主党提供了一个在大选前整整一年集中精力的机会，”卡尔加里的民意调查专家珍妮特·布朗（Janet Brown）说，她为CBC News对1，200名艾伯塔人进行了随机调查。
“One of the unintended consequences is that it's given the NDP increased capacity. It's given the NDP a chance to get their ground game together one full year ahead of a general election,” said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans for CBC News.
布朗强调，UCP通常比新民主党拥有更好的地面比赛来获得选票。
The UCP, stressed Brown, usually has the better ground game to get out their vote than the NDP.
此次公投可能与加拿大和美国之间正在进行的贸易战相一致，以及与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的紧张关系，也加剧了艾伯塔人近几个月对加拿大的依恋。
The referendum, likely in concert with the ongoing trade war between Canada and the U.S., and tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump, has also dialled up Albertans’ attachment to Canada in recent months.
卡尔加里大学政治学家丽莎·杨说：“对于那些密切关注的人来说，这里有一种真正强烈的偏好，而这往往会变成做某事的愿望。”对于一些人来说，这已经变成了新民主党的志愿服务。“在我看来，新民主党有能力从中受益，”杨说。公投为该党提供了一个讨论分离以外问题的跳板。
“For those who are paying close attention,” said University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young, “there's a real intensity of preference here, and that often turns into a desire to do something.”For some, that something has turned into volunteering for the NDP. “It seems to me that the NDP is well positioned to benefit from that,” said Young. And the referendum offered the party a springboard of sorts to talk about issues other than separation.
将公投与负担能力问题联系起来卡尔加里-肖的新民主党敲门者表示，独立公投及其不断膨胀的成本让他们有机会谈论选民最关心的事情：负担能力、教育和医疗保健。
Connecting referendum to affordability concerns NDP door knockers in Calgary-Shaw say the independence referendum — and its ballooning cost— gave them an opportunity to talk about what voters care most about: affordability, education and health care.
“这确实引起了人们的共鸣，”威尔逊说。“我们的小学在哪里？我们的孩子是如何被照顾的？我的父母在医疗保健系统中得到了怎样的照顾？”威尔逊补充说：“公投似乎是一个分心和成本，我们只是不能负担作为一个省在这个时候，是我们听到的门时，公投来了。”
“That's something that really resonated with the people,” said Wilson. “Where's our elementary school? How are our children being taken care of? How are my parents being taken care of in the health-care system?”“The referendum seems to be a distraction and a cost we just can't afford as a province at this time, is what we heard on the doors when the referendum came up,” added Wilson.
全民公决的成本与“铲子不在地面上开始建造学校”之间的对比证明了一个有效的信息，大卫克劳蒂埃说，他在最近的补选中作为志愿者为新民主党敲门，并在2023年省级选举中担任新民主党候选人。
The contrast between the cost of the referendum and “shovels are not in the ground to start building schools” proved an effective message, said David Cloutier, who door knocked for the NDP as a volunteer in the recent byelection and as the NDP candidate in the 2023 provincial election.
“我们与许多人交流过，他们觉得自己长期以来的诉求一直遭到忽视。”他说。
“We talked to a lot of folks who feel like their needs have been ignored for a long time,” he said.
新民主党主席强调，今年8月启动补选时，公投并不是卡尔加里—肖选区选民最关注的问题。
The NDP’s president stresses the referendum was not a top-of-mind issue for voters in Calgary-Shaw when the byelection was called in August.
“随着秋季到来，尤其是补选接近尾声，我们确实看到公投这一议题的热度不断上升，”威尔逊补充说。他认为，这为该党注入了动力。
“We've certainly seen the referendum as an issue ramp up through the fall and toward the end of the byelection,” added Wilson, who said it breathed momentum into the party.
新民主党希望利用这股势头，在预计于10月举行的未来省选中取得突破。但长期观察政治的人士警告称，不应过早看衰UCP。
The NDP hopes to capitalize on that momentum in the looming provincial election expected next October. But longtime political watchers warn against writing off the UCP too soon.
UCP仍具备结构性优势：UCP眼下可能正面临强劲逆风，但在再次面对选民、接受省选投票之前，这支执政党还有一年时间恢复元气。
UCP retains structural advantages The UCP may be facing tough headwinds now, but the governing party has a year to recover before facing voters in a general election.
此外，受高油价推动，该省能源特许权使用费收入十分可观，因此未来数月可以在学校和省级医疗保健系统上大手笔投入。
Also, the province is flush with energy royalties because of high oil prices meaning it can spend big on schools and the provincial health-care system in the coming months.
“我认为，我们已经看到UCP开始进入选前模式，”杨说。她特别提到，该省最近暂停征收燃油税。“他们显然是在试图把焦点从对其核心支持者重要的问题，转移到对全体选民重要的问题上，”她说，“UCP完全可以利用其非常可观的预算盈余去做一些事情，从而在选举中提升自己的受欢迎程度。”
“I think we've already seen the UCP switching into pre-election mode,” said Young, highlighting the recent provincial pause on its fuel tax“They're clearly trying to shift the focus away from the issues that matter to their base toward the issues that matter to the electorate,” she said. “The UCP is well positioned to use its very significant budget surpluses to do things that make it more popular in electoral terms.”
“新民主党面临的挑战，”杨认为，“在于公投结束后，阿尔伯塔人很容易忘记曾经有过这场公投。这些事情在人们脑海中消退得相对较快。”“对新民主党来说，它必须高度聚焦，不断提醒人们：他们当初对公投并不满意，新民主党是代表加拿大的政党；而且只要特朗普仍会带来问题，我认为这或许会有所帮助，”杨说。新民主党还可能从UCP持续的内部纷争中获益。
“The challenge for the NDP,” Young thinks, “is going to be that once the referendum is over, it will be easy for Albertans to forget that there was a referendum. These things fade in people's minds relatively quickly.”“For the NDP, there's going to have to be really razor-sharp focus on keeping people reminded that they weren't happy about the referendum, that the NDP is the party of Canada, and to the extent that Trump remains problematic, I think that's probably helpful,” said Young. The NDP might also benefit from continued infighting in the UCP.
由于公投引发的紧张局势日益加剧，史密斯可能会在未来几个月面临领导层审查。新民主党的新路线、新问题执政还有另一个结构性优势。
Smith could face a leadership review in the coming months amidst simmering tensions over the referendum. New ridings, new problems for the NDP There’s another structural advantage of being in power.
UCP可以利用其在立法机构中的多数席位重新划定骑行边界，以创建新的所谓“城市”骑行，其中包括农村和城市地区。
The UCP could use its majority in the legislature to redraw riding boundaries to create new so-called “rurban” ridings that include both rural and urban areas.
CBC新闻进行的数据分析表明，卡尔加里地区拟议的混合骑行有利于执政的UCP。布朗说：“新民主党在当前的席位模式下处于有利地位。”
Data analysis done by CBC News suggests that proposed hybrid ridings in the Calgary area favour the governing UCP. “The NDP is well positioned under this current seat model,” said Brown.
但该民意调查机构表示，鉴于UCP在该省农村地区的传统主导地位，新的混合选举对该党来说将更加艰难。
But the new hybrid ridings will be tougher for the party, given the UCP’s traditional dominance in the province's rural areas, said the pollster.
尽管如此，随着最近卡尔加里-肖补选和最近更强劲的民意调查的推动，新民主党志愿者表示，距离选举一年后，他们感到充满信心。
Still, with some wind in its sails from the recent Calgary-Shaw byelection and recent stronger public opinion polling, NDP volunteers say they’re feeling confident a year out from the election.
“我们受到了炒作和启发，”法利斯说。“我们着火了。我们想这样做。我们需要这样做。”
“We are hyped and inspired,” said Fallis. “We're on fire. We want to do this. We need to do this.”