今年的油价上涨产生了一个明显的赢家：南非的沙索公司（Sasol Ltd.）是亚洲以外表现最好的新兴市场股票，许多分析师认为，该公司的牛市还将继续。
This year’s oil price rally has produced one clear winner: South Africa’s Sasol Ltd. is the top-performing emerging-market stock outside Asia and many analysts are betting its bull run has further to go.
沙索今年为投资者带来了近120%的回报率，在去年45%的涨幅基础上，使其有望实现至少自1991年以来的最佳年度业绩。这与MSCI主要新兴股票指数中的亚洲巨型芯片和互联网公司相差不远。
Sasol has handed investors dollar a return of almost 120% this year, building on last year’s 45% gain and putting it on track for its best annual performance since at least 1991. That’s not far behind Asia’s giant chip and internet companies in MSCI’s main emerging-equity index.
这一表现更加令人瞩目，因为在此之前，多年来债务不断膨胀，项目延迟，2022年6月至2025年4月期间股价下跌了85%。
The performance is all the more remarkable, given it comes after years of ballooning debt and project delays that saw shares lose 85% of their value between June 2022 and April 2025.
最新的股价上涨当然要归功于伊朗冲突期间能源和化学品价格飙升。但萨索尔还有另一个优势--它的大部分石油产量来自煤炭，采用特殊的煤制油技术，这减少了其对中东原油的依赖。该炼油商在9月1日发布的业绩中表示，其Secunda工厂的合成燃料产量正处于五年来的高点1.约翰内斯堡SBG证券执行董事阿德里安·哈蒙德表示：“这是一个伟大的扭亏为盈的故事。”
The latest share rally is of course down to surging energy and chemicals prices amid the Iran conflict. But Sasol has another advantage — it derives the majority of its oil output from coal, using special coal-to-liquids technology, which reduces its reliance on Middle East crude. Synthetic fuel production at its Secunda facility is running at five-year highs, the refiner said in results reported Sept. 1. “It’s a great turnaround story,” said Adrian Hammond, executive director at SBG Securities in Johannesburg.
“沙索不像一个典型的炼油厂，他们的核心业务是开采煤炭，并将其转化为燃料和化学品。”哈蒙德说，虽然传统炼油厂目前以每桶100美元左右的价格购买原油，但沙索公司以该成本的一小部分获得原料，同时以市场价格出售成品。他预计，未来一年，该公司股价将从目前的水平几乎翻一番，达到每股450兰特，因为迄今为止，该股一直被许多当地投资者忽视。
“Sasol is not like a typical refinery, their core operation takes coal that they mine and turns it into fuel and chemicals.”While a conventional refiner would currently buy crude at around $100 a barrel, Sasol gets feedstock at a fraction of that cost, while selling the finished product at market prices, Hammond says. He projects the share price to almost double from current levels over the coming year to 450 rand apiece, because the stock has been overlooked by many local investors so far.
他表示，这意味着“当市场情绪最终发生变化时，将迅速重新评级”。
That implies “a rapid re-rating when sentiment does eventually shift,” he said.
阅读：随着战争上涨油价上涨，萨索尔的煤炭燃料提振利润由于经济改革和通胀降温迹象，萨索尔的优异表现恰逢投资者对南非的乐观情绪增强。但公司自身的财务状况也有所改善。截至6月30日的财年，净债务下降了11%。管理层表示，进一步削减可能使其能够两年多来首次支付股息。
Read: Sasol’s Coal-Based Fuel Boosts Profit as War Hikes Oil Price Sasol’s outperformance coincides with greater investor optimism toward South Africa, due to economic reforms and signs of cooling inflation. But the company’s own finances have improved too. Net debt is down 11% during the financial year ended June 30. Further reductions may enable it to pay dividends for the first time in more than two years, management has said.
自第二季度初以来，该股已上涨逾43%，而当地基准指数下跌1.9%。
The shares have gained more than 43% since the start of the second quarter, compared with a decline of 1.9% in the local benchmark gauge.
今年早些时候，一些分析师建议客户从这些股票中获利回吐，称这些股票与历史相比看起来很贵。尽管此后涨势持续，但汇丰银行能源和材料研究全球主管Sriharsha Pappu承认，油价逆转可能会阻碍涨势。帕普对该股的买入评级，目标为260兰特。
Earlier this year, some analysts advised clients to take profit on the shares, saying they looked expensive relative to history. While the rally has extended since then, Sriharsha Pappu, global head of energy and materials research at HSBC, acknowledged that an oil-price reversal could stall the momentum. Pappu has a buy rating on the stock, with a 260 rand target.
M & G Investments的投资组合经理Aeysha Samsodien表示，即便如此，就目前而言，宏观经济顺风仍然对萨索尔有利。她说，如果油价持续高位，萨索尔可以继续削减债务并增强其资产负债表。
Even so, for now, the macro-economic tailwind remains in Sasol’s favor, said Aeysha Samsodien, a portfolio manager at M&G Investments. If oil prices stay elevated, Sasol can continue to cut debt and strengthen its balance sheet, she said.
彭博社追踪的分析师对该股进行了四次买入、五次持有和两次相当于卖出的评级，平均目标价为238.01兰特。周一该股交易价格约为231.60兰特。
The stock has four buys, five holds and two sell-equivalent ratings from analysts tracked by Bloomberg, with an average price target of 238.01 rand. The shares traded around 231.60 rand on Monday.