如果你愿意的话，你可以从萨默塞特郡走到苏塞克斯郡，而不需要穿过保守党的选区。你也可以穿越威尔特郡、汉普郡、多塞特郡和萨里郡的每一个县，而不必踏足保守党的土地。他们现在主要是自由民主党人，牛津郡没有一个保守党议员。
You can walk all the way from Somerset to Sussex without crossing a Tory-run constituency, if you wish. You could also travel through each of the counties of Wiltshire, Hampshire, Dorset and Surrey without setting foot in Tory lands. They are now mainly Liberal Democrat, and there’s not one Tory MP in all of Oxfordshire.
凯米·巴德诺赫烦恼了吗她所做的一切似乎都是经过巧妙设计的，目的是让她永远失去这些席位，因为她吸引改革派选民，但没有成功。她越右倾，就越排斥家乡的温和派。选举学家说，这些改革派选民不会回来了。蒂姆·贝尔（Tim Bale）教授和罗布·福特（Rob Ford）教授以及你想询问的几乎所有政治权威都表示，如果不收回旧的“蓝墙”，保守党就永远没有希望获得多数席位。
Is Kemi Badenoch bothered? Everything she does seems cleverly designed to keep those places lost to her forever as she woos Reform voters, unsuccessfully. The more she leans right, the more she repels home counties moderates. Those Reform voters are not coming back, psephologists say. Without reclaiming the old “blue wall”, there is no hope, ever, of a Tory majority, say both profs Tim Bale and Rob Ford and just about every political authority you care to ask.
在该党的伯明翰会议上，你可能永远不会想到保守党的民意调查仍然比上次选举低四个百分点，这是自1830年惠灵顿公爵因拒绝选举改革和捍卫每个腐烂的行政区而被免职以来最糟糕的结果。
Shooting the breeze at the party’s Birmingham conference, you might never guess the Tories still poll four percentage points below the last election, the worst result since the Duke of Wellington was dismissed in 1830 for rejecting electoral reform and defending every rotten borough.
Badenoch在接受ConservativeHome采访时发现了惠灵顿人的遗产。“我随着自己的鼓点前进，”她说。事实上，她确实这样做了，但与公众格格不入，不居高临下地关心公众可能在想什么，也不允许有任何分歧。取消特蕾莎·梅的幕僚长加文·巴威尔（Gavin Barwell）的上议院鞭子，对任何参加这里“思想节”的人来说都是一个威慑信息，这是一个仅代表一个思想的节日。
Spot that Wellingtonian legacy in the interview Badenoch gave ConservativeHome. “I march to the beat of my own drum,” she says. Indeed she does, but out of step with the public, not condescending to care what it might be thinking and allowing no shade of disagreement. Removing the Lords whip from Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s chief of staff, was a deterrent message to anyone taking part in the “festival of ideas” here, a festival of one idea only.
巴韦尔反对巴德诺克的法令，禁止任何支持净零碳排放或留在欧洲人权大会的候选人。“我没有离开保守党。它已经离开了我，”巴韦尔悲伤地在推特上写道。它也留下了许多其他人。
Barwell opposed Badenoch’s edict barring any candidate who supports net zero carbon emissions or staying in the European convention on human rights. “I haven’t left the Conservative party. It has left me,” Barwell tweeted plaintively. It has left a great many others, too.
玛格丽特·撒切尔，仍然在这里神圣，从来没有这样做过：她在她的第一个内阁中有“湿”，从来没有把他们开除出党。她在人头税问题上的意识形态顽固性只是在后来战胜了她，这对她来说也是如此。保守党和他们的媒体对她的奉承一定来自另一个仙境，在那里他们没有以19%的得票率排在第三位，而他们的领导人，虽然有所改善，但得分为-15，而安迪·伯纳姆的得分为+7。在民意调查中，更多的人称她“讨厌”和“粗鲁”，而不是“强壮”和“聪明”。
Margaret Thatcher, still holy here, never did that: she had “wets” in her first cabinet and never expelled them from the party. Her ideological obduracy over the poll tax only overcame her later on, and it did for her. But Badenoch is starting out this way. The adulation showered on her by Tories and their press must come from some alternative wonderland where they are not polling in third place at 19%, while their leader, though improved, scores net -15 – compared with Andy Burnham on +7. In polling, more call her “nasty” and “rude” than “strong” and ‘intelligent”.
她适合什么人群？为收入超过10万英镑的父母提供免费托儿服务将被视为一种怪诞的姿态。只有4%的人的收入达到10万英镑或以上：他们认为自己并不富有，但其他96%的人认为自己富有。据财政研究所称，该政策的7亿英镑成本应用于越来越少的获得早期支持的贫困两岁儿童。新经济基金会表示，最富裕阶层的孩子受益于资助托儿时间的可能性是最弱势群体的八倍。
What demographic is she for? Giving free childcare to parents earning over £100,000 will strike most as a grotesque gesture. Only 4% make £100,000 or more: they don’t think themselves wealthy, but the other 96% of people do. The £700m cost of that policy should go to the dwindling number of deprived two-year-olds getting early years support, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Already, the children of the best-off are eight times more likely to benefit from funded childcare hours than the most disadvantaged, says the New Economics Foundation.
未做好准备就到校的孩子就是明天的Neets（未接受教育、就业或培训的16至24岁青少年）。这应该让教育部长露西·鲍威尔大发雷霆：这与父母无关，而是与孩子的未来有关。巴德诺克承诺将部分福利削减到“维持生计”水平，这是故意暗示400万贫困线以下的儿童正在过着莱利的生活。
Children arriving at school unready are tomorrow’s Neets (16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training). This should have the education secretary, Lucy Powell, rampaging: it’s not about parents, it’s about children’s futures. Badenoch’s pledge to cut some benefits to “subsistence” level deliberately implies the 4 million children below the poverty line are living the life of Riley.
她对伯纳姆的回应也与时代脱节，甚至与《泰晤士报》脱节。虽然70%的人希望与欧盟建立更密切的关系，但她的政党令人震惊地承诺撕毁伯纳姆达成的任何协议，破坏任何有关农产食品或年轻人穿越欧洲旅行自由的贸易协议。如果欧盟担心恐欧派可能重新掌权并扭转这一切，谈判就面临失败的风险。
Her responses to Burnham are also out of touch with the times – and even with the Times. While 70% want closer relations with the EU, her party shockingly pledges to rip up any agreement Burnham makes, sabotaging any trade pact on agri-foods or freedom for the young to travel across Europe. Negotiations are at risk of failure if the EU fears Europhobes might ever regain power and reverse it all.
紧缩政策在公众心目中仍然是原始的，监狱人满为患，法院被封锁，NHS等候名单和100万尼特人，以及住房危机。现在是Badenoch宣布削减470亿英镑的时候了，她的影子财政大臣现在计划在“政府的每一个部分”都削减更多。
Austerity is still raw in public minds, with overflowing prisons, blocked courts, NHS waiting lists and a million Neets, alongside the housing crisis. What a time for Badenoch to proclaim £47bn in cuts, with her shadow chancellor now planning even more “in every part of government”.
她没有召唤那些思想温和的家乡，而是与奈杰尔·法拉奇一拳一拳地竞争。上周，她将援助预算削减至10亿英镑，以与法拉奇的政策持平。看看他们废除公务员制度的军备竞赛：巴德诺克去年开始承诺削减132，000个公务员职位，将其恢复到英国脱欧前的水平（在我们退出的所有平凡欧盟机构--药品、化学品安全等--必须复制之前）。
Instead of beckoning back those moderate-minded home counties, she competes punch for punch with Nigel Farage. Last week, she stripped down the aid budget to £1bn to equal Farage’s policy. Look at their arms race to demolish the civil service: Badenoch started last year by pledging to cut 132,000 civil service jobs, return it to pre-Brexit levels (before all the mundane EU agencies we quit – medicines, chemical safety etc – had to be replicated).
法拉奇原本打算削减68，500人，直到丹尼·克鲁格上个月在他的“风暴与阳光”政策中将赌注提高到25万人。最新的？保守党刚刚承诺废除环境局、自然英格兰和气候变化委员会。家乡县对此有何看法？
Farage was due to cut a mere 68,500 until Danny Kruger upped the ante last month to 250,000 in his “Storm and Sunshine” policy. The latest? The Tories just pledged to kill off the Environment Agency, Natural England and the Climate Change Committee. What do the home counties think of that?
这场争夺最低税收、最小国家、对移民最强硬立场、最严厉的福利削减和对年轻人最深的厌恶的竞争将螺旋式下降，走向新的和危险的事物。现代英国政治以前从未出现过右翼政党平等竞争的情况。但陷入这场死亡之舞中，胆汁政治让他们远离大多数选民。保守党正在消亡：巴德诺克选民的中位数年龄现在为63岁，而工党选民的中位数年龄为46岁。
This contest for lowest taxes, smallest state, toughest stance on migrants, harshest welfare cuts and deepest loathing of the young will spiral downwards towards something new and dangerous. Modern British politics has never before had rightwing parties competing as equals. But locked in this dance of death, the politics of bile carries them further from most voters. Tories are dying out: 63 is now the median age of Badenoch’s voters, while Labour’s is 46.
如果下次会议没有任何改善，巴德诺克坚如磐石的支持的海市蜃楼就会消失。但什么会取代她呢？正在等待的是保守党复兴的一个模型--一月份推出的Prosper UK。
If nothing improves by next conference, the mirage of Badenoch’s rock-solid support will melt away. But what would replace her? Waiting in the wings there is a model of what a Conservative revival might look like – Prosper UK, launched in January.
他们蹑手蹑脚，大声赞扬巴德诺克，但他们在这次会议上举办了七场比赛。其中包括周日晚上举行的小型选举改革集会。前西米德兰兹郡市长安迪·斯特里特（Andy Street）、现任Prosper UK联合主席，与露丝·戴维森（Ruth Davidson）一起发表了讲话，并得到了一系列曾经的一国组织的支持，该组织现已在议会中解散，或者在巴德诺克右翼游行中处于休眠状态。
They tiptoe, praising Badenoch loudly, yet they are running seven events at this conference. That included a small Sunday night rally for electoral reform. It was addressed by former West Midlands mayor Andy Street, now co-chair of Prosper UK, with Ruth Davidson, backed by a formidable array of what was once the One Nation group, now defunct in parliament – or dormant under Badenoch’s rightwards march.
没有议员公开支持Prosper UK，但该组织声称其中三分之一的议员秘密支持Prosper UK，以及30，000名公开支持者。副主席大卫·高克（David Gauke）已经悄悄地回到了党内-他认为，当会员计算机处理他的重新申请时，他在2019年被开除了。在返回时，他加入了一个营的中右翼杰出人物在同一时间驱逐，包括肯尼斯克拉克，迈克尔赫塞尔廷和多米尼克格里夫。
No MPs back Prosper UK in public, but the group claims a third of them do secretly, along with 30,000 declared supporters. David Gauke, vice chair, has crept back into the party – he thinks by accident when the membership computer processing his re-application didn’t he’d been ejected in 2019. In returning, he joined a battalion of remainer luminaries of the centre-right ejected at the same time, including Kenneth Clarke, Michael Heseltine and Dominic Grieve.
高克周游全国，向保守党协会和其他人发表讲话。英国亲欧盟，支持技术工人和外国学生的移民，支持零净收入，反对养老金三重锁定-高克说，“保守党应该在所有这些问题上讲真话”。但尽管他是社会自由派，但他在财政纪律上却表现得很冷淡，他为低商业税、缩小国家而竞选，并吸引了非正统派的海耶克，而不是凯恩斯。“没有人代表大约700万中间派或中右翼人士说话，”他说。
Gauke travels the country speaking to Conservative associations and others. Prosper UK is pro-EU, pro-migration for skilled workers and foreign students, pro-net zero and against the pension triple lock – and Gauke says that “Conservatives should be truth tellers on all these”. But though socially liberal, he’s dry as a bone on fiscal discipline, campaigning for low business taxes, a smaller state and enticing back non-doms – all Hayek, no Keynes. “No one speaks for some 7 million people centre or centre-right,” he says.
事实上，这个国家需要一个有可能当选的保守党来与法拉格主义作斗争，而不是复制法拉格主义。如果巴德诺克不支持转变，那么为了生存，他们就需要把她赶下台。波莉·汤因比是《卫报》专栏作家
Indeed, the country needs a plausibly electable Tory party to put up a fight against Faragism, not a carbon copy of it. If Badenoch is not for turning, to survive they will need to turn her out. Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist