摩根大通策略师扎赫拉·泰耶布（Zahra Tayeb）指出，基于大型科技公司销售放缓以及强劲的企业盈利等因素，美国投资级公司债券在第四季度的表现有望优于美国国债。
Chase & Co. strategists see US investment-grade corporate bonds outperforming Treasuries in the fourth quarter, citing factors including slowing sales from big tech companies and strong corporate earnings.
该行在一份周五首次发布的报告中表示，预计追踪投资级公司债券的JULI指数与美国国债之间的利差将从周五的0.96个百分点收窄至0.85个百分点。这大致相当于彭博美国企业指数预测值为0.73个百分点，而周五收盘时为0.82个百分点。
The bank said it expects spreads versus Treasuries on its JULI index — which tracks investment-grade corporate bonds — to tighten to 0.85 percentage point from its Friday level of 0.96 percentage point, according to a note first published on Friday. That roughly equates to a 0.73 percentage point forecast for the Bloomberg US corporate index, compared with a 0.82 percentage point close on Friday.
以内撒尼尔·罗森鲍姆（Nathaniel Rosenbaum）为首的策略师列举了一系列“看涨”的催化剂来驱动需求，例如利率波动变得更加温和，以及随着收益率企稳，国内外需求相对增强。
Strategists led by Nathaniel Rosenbaum cite a series of “bullish” catalysts to drive demand, such as interest-rate volatility becoming more subdued, as well as relatively stronger domestic and foreign demand as yields settle.
他们表示：“综合来看，收益率处于或接近本周期的最新高点，信用基本面状况良好，且第四季度的供需平衡应该会改善。”
“Taking stock of it all, yields are at or close to fresh cycle highs, credit fundamentals are in very good shape and the supply & demand balance should improve throughout Q4,” they said.
尽管今年市场上可能还会出现价值500亿美元的超大规模数据中心发行量，但该行表示，相对于这些科技公司今年迄今在全球发行的债券总量而言，这只是“杯水车薪”。策略师写道，该机构预计今年剩余时间的债券发行量约为3050亿美元，这将使最后一个季度成为全年发行最缓慢的时期，这也是通常的情况。
While another $50 billion worth of hyperscaler issuance could hit the market this year, the bank said this is a “drop in the bucket” relative to volume of bonds these tech companies have issued year-to-date globally. The firm expects about $305 billion of issuance for the rest of the year, making the last quarter the slowest of the year, as is usually the case, the strategists wrote.
在比较资产类别时，摩根大通策略师表示“美国投资级信用债是烂街区里最好的房子”，并补充称，由强劲经济增长推动的更高收益率，对企业盈利的积极影响远大于抵押贷款支持证券和市政债券等其他固定收益资产。
When comparing asset classes, JPMorgan strategists said “US HG is the best house on a bad block,” adding that higher yields driven by strong economic growth carry significantly more positive implications for corporate earnings than other fixed-income assets such as mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds.