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不让药品卷入美中科技战Keep Medicine Out of the US-China Tech War

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当华盛顿和北京争夺前沿技术的主导地位时,有一个领域的竞争不应该排除合作:创新药物。北京最新的生物技术领域五年计划详细介绍了中国希望如何在全球领先该领域。对于工业蓝图来说不同寻常的是,它附带了数字目标。

As Washington and Beijing tussle for dominance in frontier technologies, there’s one area in which competition shouldn’t preclude collaboration: innovative medicines. Beijing’s latest five-year plan for the biotechnology sector details how the country wants to lead the field globally. Unusually for an industrial blueprint, it comes with numeric targets.

到2030年,中国制药商的竞争力有望实现“重大飞跃”,新药销售额将以每年20%的速度增长。制药公司的目标是开发至少25%的世界一流药物,这些药物以全新的方式治疗疾病。预计他们还将发明至少五种重磅疗法,年销售额超过10亿美元。

By Juliana Liu By 2030, Chinese drugmakers are expected to have made a “major leap” in competitiveness with sales of new medications growing 20% annually. Pharmaceutical companies aim to develop at least 25% of the world’s first-in-class medicines, which are drugs that work in an entirely new way to treat a condition. They’re also expected to have originated at least five blockbuster therapies with sales of more than $1 billion a year.

这些野心并不像看起来那么牵强。数十年的政策支持,包括对教育的投资,帮助该国从药物开发的追随者变成了日益肥沃的创新源泉。大型制药公司已经注意到了这一点。为了在一系列利润丰厚的专利到期之前补充资金来源,全球公司开始了疯狂的采购,特别是在中国擅长的癌症和肥胖治疗等领域。过去五年来,海外药品许可交易的价值飙升了10倍多,达到创纪录的1,340亿美元。

These ambitions aren’t as farfetched as they might seem. Decades of policy support, including investment in education, have helped turn the country into an increasingly fertile source of innovation from a follower in drug development. Big Pharma has taken notice. To replenish their pipeline before a slew of lucrative patents expire, global companies have gone on a shopping spree, particularly in areas such as cancer and obesity treatments where China excels. Over the past five years, the value of overseas drug-licensing deals has surged more than 10-fold to a record $134 billion.

最近的交易表明了国际需求的强劲。上周,诺和诺德公司(Novo Nordisk A/S)同意向江苏恒瑞医药股份有限公司(Jiangsu Henrui Pharmaceuticals Co.)支付高达26亿美元,购买一种每周只能服用一次的实验性减肥药的使用权。这笔交易的突出之处在于,它为一种没有人体试验数据的疗法支付了3亿美元的预付款。

Recent deals illustrate the strength of international demand. Last week, Novo Nordisk A/S agreed to pay Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co. as much as $2.6 billion for rights to an experimental obesity pill that can be taken just once a week. The deal stood out for its hefty $300 million upfront payment for a therapy that has no human trial data.

愿意这么早就下如此大的赌注,这表明西方制药商现在如何重视中国的研究。因为两种主流口服GLP-1减肥药物(来自Novo和Eli Lilly & Co.)需要每日给药,成功的每周替代方案具有明显的商业吸引力。周五,诺华股份公司与Glugen Biosciences达成了一项更大的交易,支付高达78亿美元用于治疗自身免疫性疾病的实验性mRNA治疗。

The willingness to place such a large bet so early demonstrates how Western drugmakers now value Chinese research. Because the two mainstream oral GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (from Novo and Eli Lilly & Co.) require daily dosing, a successful weekly alternative holds obvious commercial appeal. On Friday, Novartis AG struck an even bigger deal with Abogen Biosciences, paying as much as $7.8 billion for an experimental mRNA treatment for autoimmune diseases.

这一成功给华盛顿带来了困境。观点认为,如果制药巨头能够向更便宜的中国分子发放许可证,而不是资助美国初创公司,那么将耗尽美国生物技术生态系统的资本和专业知识。其逻辑类似于美国政府对先进半导体的出口管制,旨在阻止美国设计的芯片帮助加速中国人工智能发展或遏制中国汽车制造商进入美国市场。

That success has created a dilemma for Washington. The argument goes that if pharma giants can license cheaper Chinese molecules rather than funding American startups, it will drain capital and expertise from the US biotech ecosystem. The logic resembles the US government’sexport controls on advanced semiconductors, which are intended to prevent US-designed chips from helping accelerate China’s AI development or curb Chinese carmakers’ access to the US market.

美国已经寻求通过《生物安全法案》减少对中国生物技术公司的依赖,该法案限制联邦机构与指定公司合作。今年提出的一项两党提案将走得更远,可能会限制目前吸引西方制药商的许可协议。

The US has already sought to cut its reliance on Chinese biotechnology companies through the Biosecure Act, which restricts federal agencies from working with designated companies. A bipartisan proposal introduced this year would go further, potentially limiting the kind of licensing deals now attracting Western drugmakers.

但那将是一个错误。新型药物不能像半导体、电动汽车或大型语言模型那样以零和方式对待,一个竞争对手的胜利是以另一个竞争对手的牺牲为代价的。该行业本质上是协作性的,尤其是在生命科学领域。救生治疗的起源远不如患者能否获得它重要。

But that would be a mistake. Novel medicines can’t be treated in the same zero-sum way as semiconductors, electric vehicles or large language models, where one competitor’s win comes at the expense of the other. The industry is inherently collaborative, especially in life sciences. The origin of a lifesaving treatment matters far less than whether patients can get access to it.

美国财政部似乎明白其中的区别。据路透社报道,它正在考虑制定规则,以保护美国制药商从中国公司获得创新治疗许可的能力,同时限制涉及病原体或可能被武器化的技术的投资。这是一个明智的做法。华盛顿有强烈的动机让潜在的危险技术不落入对手手中,但这并不意味着上海的每一项发现都是国家安全威胁。

The US Treasury Department appears to understand the distinction. It’s considering rules that would preserve American drugmakers’ ability to license innovative treatments from Chinese companies, Reuters reported recently, while restricting investments involving pathogens or technology that could be weaponized. It’s a sensible approach. Washington has a strong incentive to keep potentially dangerous technologies out of an adversary’s hands, but that doesn’t mean every discovery from Shanghai is a national security threat.

可以肯定的是,美国绝对应该试图凭借其更广泛的资本渠道和更多的国际科学家群体在生物技术竞赛中击败中国。这就是为什么特朗普政府明智地放弃进一步削减美国顶级科学机构的资金,这些机构的资金支持最终能够产生商业突破的基础研究,并吸引顶尖科学人才来到美国。华盛顿还可以推进计划,创建一个独立于中国的供应链,生产制造仿制药所需的原材料。

To be sure, the US absolutely should be trying to beat China in the biotech race with its greater access to capital and a larger cohort of international scientists. That’s why the Trump administration would be wise toback away from further cuts to America’s top science agencies, whose funding supports the basic research that can ultimately produce commercial breakthroughs, and which draws top scientific talent to the country. Washington could also press ahead with plans to create a supply chain that is independent of China for producing raw materials needed to make generic medicines.

确保国内制药能力并保留美国创新是有正当理由的。但限制获取外国药品并不是实现这一目标的方法。华盛顿应该努力超越中国,而不是忽视其创新。

There are legitimate reasons to ensure domestic pharmaceutical capacity and preserve US innovation. But restricting access to foreign medicines is not the way to accomplish that goal. Washington should try to outdo China, not ignore its innovations.

白宫无法炒作医疗保健贴纸冲击:丽莎·贾维斯负担能力危机现在可以增加工资:罗伯特·伯吉斯中国可以发明新药。为他们付费更难:Juliana Liu Opin

The White House Can’t Hype Away Healthcare Sticker Shock: Lisa Jarvis The Affordability Crisis Can Now Add Wages to the Mix: Robert Burgess China Can Invent New Drugs. Paying for Them Is Harder: Juliana Liu OPIN