首尔 —— 关于韩国对美投资条款的分歧，正加深外界对这对条约盟友之间存续摩擦的认知。
SEOUL -- Disagreement over the terms of South Korean investment in the U.S. is feeding into perceptions of lingering friction between the treaty allies.
上周，双方发布了一份事实清单，详细列出了韩国将在美国投资的数十亿美元项目，包括一座联合循环燃气电厂和八座核电站。这些细节是对去年韩国总统李在明与其美国同行唐纳德·特朗普达成的协议进展的久违更新，根据该协议，首尔将投资3500亿美元，以换取其商品关税从25%降至15%。
Last week, the nations released a fact sheet detailing billions of dollars in investment South Korea would make in the U.S., including a combined-cycle gas power plant and eight nuclear power plants The details were a long-awaited update on the progress of a deal reached last year between South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, under which Seoul would invest $350 billion in exchange for tariffs on its goods being lowered from 25% to 15%.
但在双方的表述中出现了差异：特朗普公开发表言论，将阿拉斯加液化天然气项目描述为已敲定的交易，而事实清单称双方已“同意启动”该项目的工作。韩国产业通商资源部的一位发言人表示，该项目尚未达成协议。
But differences have emerged in the sides' messaging, as Trump made public remarks describing an Alaska liquid natural gas project as a sealed deal, while the fact sheet says the two have "agreed to commence working" on the project. A spokesperson for South Korea's trade ministry said no deal has been reached on the project.
特朗普周五在社交媒体上发文进一步加剧了混乱，他高调宣称与韩国的协议“越来越好”，首尔将为一项提高原油采收率项目出资84亿美元。随后他在对记者讲话时表示，如果韩国不参与阿拉斯加液化天然气项目，他将“直接向他们收取更多费用”。
Trump added to the confusion on Friday with a social media post in which he trumpeted that the deal with South Korea "keeps getting better," that Seoul would put up $8.4 billion for an enhanced oil recovery project. He later told reporters that if South Korea were not on board with the Alaska LNG venture, he would "just charge them more."
李在明政府在公开表态中坚持称，将只推进其认定为“商业上可行”的投资。这种混乱局面反映了近一年来持续存在的问题，当时首尔在公开承诺对美投资上拖延不决。“依我之见，部分问题在于首尔误判了与特朗普政府进行投资外交的政治时机，”西江大学国际关系学教授金在千（音）对《日经亚洲》表示。“韩国本应更早地至少落实部分投资承诺。”
The Lee administration has maintained in public messaging that it will only move forward with investments it deems to be "commercially viable." The messy situation reflects issues that have been festering for nearly a year as Seoul dragged its feet in publicly committing to stateside investment. "Part of the problem, in my view, is that Seoul misread the political timing of investment diplomacy with the Trump administration," Kim Jae-chun, a professor of international relations at Sogang University, told Nikkei Asia. "Korea probably should have moved earlier on at least part of the investment commitments.
“人们谈论商业可行性和尽职调查，这当然很重要。但归根结底，这永远是一个政治决定，也是一个经济决定。“在国内，特朗普在下个月关键的中期选举之前面临着人气下滑。根据《华尔街日报》最近的一项民意调查，特朗普的支持率为37%，是美国近代史上最低的总统。据《华尔街日报》报道，“共和党人开始恐慌。”
"People talk about commercial viability and due diligence, which are certainly important. But at the end of the day, this was always going to be a political decision as much as an economic one." At home, Trump is facing slumping popularity ahead of pivotal midterm elections next month. According to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, Trump's approval rating stands at 37%, the lowest of any U.S. president in recent history. "Republicans are starting to panic," the Journal reported.
分析师预测，受特朗普与伊朗旷日持久的战争导致油价上涨的推动，通胀将保持高位，特朗普可能担心在美国人于11月3日投票之前，他的地位可能不会改善。
With analysts predicting inflation will stay high, driven by elevated oil prices caused by Trump's protracted war with Iran, Trump could be fearing that his standing may not improve before Americans cast their ballots on Nov. 3.
总部位于夏威夷的太平洋论坛智库地区事务主任罗布·约克表示，他的国内情况可能迫使特朗普抓住一个能让他的支持者满意的公告，即使与韩国的投资协议并不像他所说的那样最终。
His domestic situation could have compelled Trump to grasp for an announcement that would please his base, even if the investment deals with South Korea were not as final as he made them out to be, according to Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum think tank.
约克告诉《日经》：“这可能与中期选举有关。”“总统当然担心他的支持者的热情低落，并希望鼓励他们对他的交易保持信心。“如果分歧持续存在，首尔和华盛顿旨在威慑拥有核武器的朝鲜的国防伙伴关系就有可能中断。8月，特朗普通过社交媒体发布命令，要求提前结束年度联合军事演习，震惊了韩国政界和国防界。
"It may be about midterms," York told Nikkei. "The president is certainly concerned about depressed enthusiasm among his base and wants to encourage them to maintain faith in his dealmaking." If the differences persist, there is a risk of disruption to Seoul and Washington's defense partnership, which aims to deter nuclear-armed North Korea. In August, Trump stunned South Korea's political and defense circles with an order, issued via social media, to wrap up combined annual military exercises earlier than scheduled.
特朗普表示，缩短演习的决定是对韩国拒绝加入华盛顿针对伊朗的军事行动的一种惩罚。随后计划的韩美演习已按计划进行。
Trump presented the decision to cut the drills short as being a kind of punishment for South Korea's refusal to join Washington's military operation targeting Iran. Subsequent planned South Korea-U.S. drills have gone ahead as scheduled.
然而，无法保证安全合作将不受阻碍地继续下去。“首尔面临的一个风险是，液化天然气问题上的分歧可能会蔓延到联盟中的其他经济和安全问题，特别是因为两国政府一直在同时就这些问题进行谈判，”昆西负责任治国研究所研究员詹姆斯·帕克（James Park）表示。
There is, however, no guarantee that security cooperation will continue unimpeded. "One risk for Seoul is that disagreements over LNG could spill into other economic and security issues in the alliance, particularly because the two governments have been negotiating these issues in parallel," said James Park, a research associate at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
朴槿惠告诉《日经》：“如果液化天然气谈判陷入僵局或破裂，首尔将需要考虑华盛顿在其他领域施加压力的可能性。”
"If the LNG negotiations stall or break down, Seoul would need to consider the possibility that Washington could exert pressure in other areas," Park told Nikkei.
美国韩国经济研究所研究员兼经济政策分析师汤姆·拉马奇表示，尽管存在摩擦，首尔仍有理由对即将到来的协议持乐观态度。
Despite frictions, Seoul still has reasons to be optimistic about the looming deals, said Tom Ramage, a fellow and economic policy analyst at the Korea Economic Institute of America.
拉马奇告诉《日经》：“所选项目的领域有利于韩国的能源需求、商界以及进一步融入美国人工智能生态系统。”“确实，两国政府在这些项目上可能并不完全一致，特朗普可能迫使韩国采取行动。接下来的几个月将决定这些项目的实际结果。"
"The projects selected are in areas beneficial to Korea's energy needs, business community, and further integration into the U.S. AI ecosystem," Ramage told Nikkei. "It's true that the two governments may not exactly see eye to eye on the projects, and Trump may have forced Korea's hand. The next few months will determine how these projects actually pan out."