依靠复杂算法和机器学习技术构建交易的对冲基金策略，今年表现优于股市。
Hedge fund strategies that rely on complex algorithms and machine learning technology to build trades are beating the stock market this year.
趋势跟踪型对冲基金——也称为商品交易顾问（CTA）或管理期货策略——是基于计算机的基金，它们利用量化程序、统计模型和价格信号处理海量数据，并在期货市场进行投资。
Trend-following hedge funds — also known as commodity trading advisors, or managed futures strategies — are computer-based funds that use quantitative programs, statistical models and price signals to crunch huge volumes of data and invest across futures markets.
它们旨在识别并交易股票、债券、大宗商品和货币市场中大而持续的趋势——无论是上涨还是下跌——以从这种持续的动能中获利。
They aim to identify and trade large and consistent trends — both upward and downward — across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies, to profit from that ongoing momentum.
兴业银行的SG CTA指数——该行业的主要业绩基准，追踪包括曼群、太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）、AQR和温顿资本等主要策略基金的日度净回报——在截至第三季度末的九个月里实现了15.7%的回报。相比之下，广泛的标普500指数在同期九个月内上涨了11.7%。“早一步、逆向而正确”业内人士告诉CNBC，CTA正确预判了9月突如其来的债券抛售潮，通过做空美国国债获利。这增加了此前因看涨美元头寸以及伊朗战争前做多石油押注所获得的收益。
Societe Generale's SG CTA Index — the sector's main performance benchmark, which tracks the daily net returns of major strategies including Man Group, PIMCO, AQR and Winton Capital funds — notched a 15.7% return in the nine months to the end of the third quarter. By comparison, the broad-based S&P 500 rose 11.7% over the same nine-month period. 'Early, contrarian and right' Industry pros told CNBC how CTAs correctly called September's sudden bond sell-off with shorts against U.S. Treasurys. That added to earlier gains made from bullish dollar positions, as well as pre-Iran war long oil bets.
“CTA今年正在碾压对冲基金界的其他策略，”Dynamic Beta Investments的管理合伙人Andrew Beer表示。他说，该板块在伊朗战争前的1月开始买入原油，随后在全球债券市场动荡前成功布局利率上行，做到了“早一步、逆向而正确”。
"CTAs are crushing the rest of the hedge fund world this year," said Andrew Beer, managing member at Dynamic Beta Investments. He said the sector was "early, contrarian and right" when it started buying crude oil in January prior to the Iran war, before successfully positioning for rising rates ahead of the global bond market turmoil.
比尔通过电子邮件告诉CNBC：“他们锁定了市场的两大主题：一方面，人工智能驱动的对股市的狂热乐观情绪，另一方面，对油价和通胀的恐慌。”“人类太情绪化，无法计时市场。机器要好得多。Metori Capital Management首席执行官兼首席信息官Nicolas Gaussel表示，由于CTO能够持有固定收益空头头寸，因此有效地应对了通胀紧张局势。他补充称，股市和油价之间的负相关性是另一个重要特征，有助于提振今年的表现。
"They've nailed the two major themes in the markets: on the one hand, feverish AI-driven optimism about equities and, on the other, panic about oil prices and inflation," Beer told CNBC via email. "Humans are too emotional to time markets. Machines are much better." Nicolas Gaussel, CEO and CIO of Metori Capital Management, said CTAs have effectively navigated inflationary tensions thanks to their ability to take short positions in fixed income. He added that the negative correlation between stocks and oil was another important feature which helped bolster performance this year.
Gaussel表示，今年受到两个重要结构性主题的影响：股票和债券之间的强正相关性，以及能源与股票和债券之间的强负相关性。事实证明，这是传统的“60/40”投资组合的环境。
This year has been shaped by two important structural themes, Gaussel said: the strong positive correlation between equities and bonds, and a strong negative correlation between energy and both equities and bonds. This has proved an environment for traditional '60/40' portfolios.
“对于传统的只做多的多元化投资组合来说，股票和债券之间的正相关性尤其具有挑战性。债券表现一直疲软，而债券相对于股票的多元化也较少。相比之下，事实证明，CTS卖空债券和短期利率的能力非常有益，”Gaussel补充道。
"For traditional long-only diversified portfolios, the positive correlation between equities and bonds has been particularly challenging. Bond performance has been weak, while bonds have also provided less diversification against equities. By contrast, the ability of CTAs to go short bonds and short-term rates has proved very beneficial," Gaussel added.
“这提醒我们，CTS的主要优势之一是它们不依赖债券发挥传统的防御作用。Mast Investments首席投资官Yung-Shin Kung表示：“展望未来，年底趋势跟踪基金的表现可能取决于能源价格和利率。
"This reminds us that one of the key strengths of CTAs is that they are not dependent on bonds playing their traditional defensive role." Looking ahead, the performance of trend-following funds heading into year-end will likely hinge on energy prices and interest rates, said Yung-Shin Kung, chief investment officer at Mast Investments.
他通过CNBC告诉CNBC：“如果9月份提供了任何迹象的话，那么我们正处于两者之间的联系现在也正在有意义地传播到货币和股市的地步。”“结果是，CTS通常处于有利地位来缓冲传统投资组合-但许多CTS书籍中的风险已变得越来越集中。"
"If September provides any indication, we're at a point where linkages between the two are now propagating meaningfully into currencies and equity markets as well," he told CNBC via "The upshot is that CTAs are generally well positioned to buffer traditional portfolios — but the risk in many CTA books has grown increasingly concentrated."