拥有令人羡慕的预算盈余，选民希望这些资金用于帮助他们应对能源成本飙升和生活成本紧缩。
Ireland’s government has an enviable budget surplus, and voters want those funds used to help them with soaring energy costs and a cost-of-living squeeze.
对于财政部长西蒙·哈里斯来说，这应该是周二预算中的一个简单选择。但他必须权衡赠品的政治利益，与一再警告他的财政盈余依赖于少数美国跨国公司的“意外之财”公司税收收入，他需要建立一支应急基金。
It should be an easy choice for Finance Minister Simon Harris in his budget on Tuesday. But he has to weigh the political benefits of a giveaway against repeated warnings that his fiscal surplus depends on “windfall” corporation tax revenue from a handful of US multinationals and he needs to build a rainy-day fund.
随着中东冲突的持续，燃料成本上涨引发抗议活动的威胁加剧了紧张局势。今年早些时候，农民和运输商的示威活动封锁了道路，关闭了该国唯一的石油码头，并导致与警察发生冲突。
The tension is being heightened by the threat of protests over rising fuel costs as the Middle East conflict persists. Earlier this year, demonstrations by farmers and hauliers blocked roads, closed the country’s only oil terminal and led to clashes with police.
政府降低了汽油和柴油的消费税，以帮助平息骚乱，但竞选团体表示，如果得不到更多减免，他们将再次采取行动。
The government reduced excise duties on petrol and diesel to help calm the unrest, but campaign groups have signaled they’ll take action again if they don’t get more relief.
最近的一项民意调查凸显了预算困境，显示只有3%的选民希望政府储蓄。大约35%的人需要能源和燃料方面的帮助。根据欧盟统计局2025年的数据，爱尔兰电价是欧洲最高的。
The budget dilemma was highlighted in a recent poll showing that just 3% of voters want the government to save. About 35% want help with energy and fuel. Irish electricity prices are the highest in the Europe, according to 2025 data from Eurostat.
类似的情况也在欧洲各地上演，法国和英国等国家正在试图平衡选民的要求与控制支出的需要。
Similar situations are playing out across Europe, where countries including France and the UK are trying to balance voter demands with the need to keep spending in check.
然而，爱尔兰的处境要舒服得多。许多国家都在与赤字作斗争，但预计今年盈余将占GDP的1.1%左右。
Ireland, however, is in a far more comfortable position. Many countries are struggling with deficits, but it’s forecast to have a surplus of about 1.1% of GDP this year.
虽然爱尔兰未能免受能源主导的全球债券抛售的影响，但它的借贷成本仍然是欧元区中最低的国家。10年期国债收益率约为3.60%，仅比该地区的安全资产德国国债高出15个基点。相比之下，法国的同等溢价已飙升至140多个基点。
While Ireland hasn’t been immune to an energy-led global bond selloff, it still has some of the lowest borrowing costs in the euro area. The 10-year yield is around 3.60%, just 15 basis points above German bunds, the region’s safe asset. By contrast, the equivalent French premium has blown out to more than 140 basis points.
爱尔兰的盈余部分建立在美国公司的巨额公司税收入之上，而这个小型开放经济体极易受到全球波动的影响。
Ireland’s surplus is partly built on huge corporation tax revenues from US companies, and the small, open economy is extremely vulnerable to global swings.
从央行到州财政监管机构等机构表示，政府不应该用可能消失的税收意外之财来资助永久性支出增长。
Institutions ranging from the central bank to the state’s fiscal watchdog say the government shouldn’t fund permanent spending increases with tax windfalls which may disappear.
安永爱尔兰首席经济学家罗莎·怀特（Rossa White）表示：“显然，有些事情超出了我们的控制范围--债券收益率正在上升--但最终我们需要做的是实现这种平衡。”“当然，这总是一种微妙的平衡。”财政部长西蒙·哈里斯暗示可能会宣布能源支持，但据当地媒体报道，他警告说，一项预算只能做这么多。总理迈克尔·马丁总理已表示，在政府剩余任期内将停止提高家庭取暖油的碳税。
“Clearly there are things outside our control — bond yields are going up — but ultimately what we need to do is get that balance,” said Rossa White, chief economist at EY Ireland. “And it’s always, of course, a delicate balance.”Finance Minister Simon Harris has hinted that energy support may be announced, but, according to local media, has cautioned that there’s only so much one budget can do. The prime minister, Taoiseach Micheal Martin, has signaled that carbon tax increases on home-heating oil will be halted for the remainder of the government’s term.