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拉凯什·维亚斯:非必需消费品、中型银行和电信板块在下一市场阶段更受青睐Consumer discretionary, mid-sized banks and telecom preferable for next market phase: Rakesh Vyas

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消费 discretionary、部分银行和电信仍然是Quest Investment Managers首席投资官兼投资组合经理Rakesh Vyas的偏好板块,因为他预计尽管宏观条件在变化,盈利增长仍将保持健康。

Consumer discretionary, select banks and telecom remain among the preferred sectors for Rakesh Vyas, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Quest Investment Managers, as he expects earnings growth to remain healthy despite evolving macro conditions.

Vyas表示,消费 discretionary公司继续提供比生活必需品更好的增长可见度,而部分中型银行可能会受益于更强劲的信贷增长和可能上升的利率。他还预计电信公司的盈利能力在未来三个到六个月内有望改善,因为涨价措施即将实施。"我们对消费 discretionary板块相较于生活必需品来说更为乐观,"Vyas表示。

Vyas said consumer discretionary companies continue to offer better growth visibility than staples, while select mid-sized banks could benefit from stronger credit growth and a possible rise in interest rates. He also expects telecom companies to see an improvement in profitability as tariff hikes are likely over the next three to six months." We have been reasonably more positive on the consumer discretionary as a space versus staples," Vyas said.

他表示,生活必需品的价格驱动改善可能是暂时的,而 discretionary消费仍将受益于更强劲的潜在需求。"我们仍然认为增长轨迹,尤其是在消费 discretionary和零售空间,仍然相当强劲,"他说,并补充称,像特伦特(Trent)和维沙尔·米加·马特(Vishal Mega Mart)这样的公司可能会在中长期内继续实现双位数增长。

According to him, the pricing-led improvement in staples is likely to be temporary, while discretionary consumption continues to benefit from stronger underlying demand." We still believe that the growth trajectory, especially in the consumer discretionary and maybe in the retail space, remains fairly strong," he said, adding that companies such as Trent and Vishal Mega Mart could continue delivering double-digit growth over the medium term.

在金融领域,Vyas表示,强劲的FCNR存款流入和高于平均水平的信贷增长有利于能够比整个银行系统更快增长贷款的小型和中型银行。

On financials, Vyas said strong FCNR deposit inflows and above-average credit growth favour smaller and mid-sized banks that can grow lending faster than the broader banking system.

他预计印度在即将到来的政策周期内的利率可能会上升,这可能会支持拥有更多与回购利率挂钩和外部基准挂钩贷款的贷款机构。"我认为印度的利率可能会逐渐上升……肯定是从下一次政策开始,"他说。

He expects interest rates in India to move higher in the coming policy cycle, which could support lenders with a larger share of repo-linked and external benchmark-linked loans."I think interest rates in India will probably start to inch up... definitely from next policy onwards," he said.

尽管他对大型私营银行仍持乐观态度,但Vyas认为,由于FCNR存款占比较高,这些银行的净利息利润率在短期内可能会面临压力,直到这些负债被重新定价。

While he remains constructive on large private banks, Vyas believes their net interest margins could face pressure in the near term because of the higher share of FCNR deposits until these liabilities are repriced.

在电信领域,Vyas表示用户新增情况仍然健康,但涨价措施比预期延迟了更长时间。

In telecom, Vyas saidr additions remain healthy, but tariff hikes have been delayed longer than expected.

他认为,运营商如今很可能会把重点放在提升盈利能力上。“关税上调……更有可能在近期发生……即未来三到六个月内,”他说。在该行业方面,维亚斯表示Quest Investment Managers更倾向于投资巴蒂电信。他也认为信实工业颇具投资价值,但表示在拟议中的Jio Platforms首次公开募股完成前,他更愿意观望,暂不增加持仓。他同时澄清,这些均属于现有投资组合,并非新的投资建议。完整访谈内容请见下文。

He believes operators are now likely to focus on improving profitability." The tariff increase... is more likely to happen now... in the next three to six months," he said. Within the sector, Vyas said Quest Investment Managers is more inclined towards Bharti Airtel. He also finds Reliance Industries attractive but said he would prefer to wait for the proposed Jio Platforms IPO before increasing exposure. He clarified that these are existing portfolio holdings and not fresh investment recommendations. For the full interview,