你开车经过好市多（Costco），看到停车场挤满了汽车。用于进入的左转车道已经排起了50码长的长队。加油站里也挤满了人，他们打算加完油后进入店内。这里是城里最繁忙的十字路口。但随后，你打开了一张股票图表：自5月份达到高点以来，股价已经下跌了16%。你感到困惑——你不是刚读到上个季度盈利表现强劲吗？
You drive by Costco and see the parking lot teeming with cars. The left-hand turn lane to enter is backed up 50 yards. The gas station is packed with people planning to head inside after they fill up. It's the busiest intersection in town. But then you pull up a stock chart. Shares are down 16% since a peak in May. You're confused. Didn't you just read that earnings were strong this past quarter?
这种股价跑输大盘的现象并不仅限于好市多。沃尔玛（Walmart）——这家历史上常被购物者用来节省开支的零售商——尽管持续吸引新客户，但近期的股价走势却惊人地相似。这到底是怎么回事？它们不应该是消费疲软时期也能表现稳定的“全天候赢家”吗？讽刺的是，好市多和沃尔玛作为防御性投资标的的声誉，可能反而对其不利。
The stock underperformance isn't just a Costco issue. Walmart — another retailer that shoppers have historically traded down to when trying to spend less — has an eerily similar recent stock chart despite continuing to add customers. What gives? Aren't these supposed to be all-weather winners of a consumer pullback? In an ironic way, the reputation of Costco and Walmart as defensive plays may have worked against them.
随着对消费者需求的担忧加剧，投资者推高了这两家公司的股价溢价。这反过来又让它们容错空间变小，并且对消费进一步疲软的信号更加敏感。下图显示，自5月19日创下历史新高收盘以来，这两只股票的表现远逊于市场以及更广泛的消费必需品板块。次日，特朗普总统表示与伊朗的战争谈判已进入“最后阶段”，导致油价大幅下跌，也削弱了投资者对好市多和沃尔玛这类防御性股票的热情。
As worries about the consumer grew, investors built a premium into their stocks. That, in turn, gave them less room for error, and made them more sensitive to further signs of weaker spending. The chart below shows just how badly both stocks have underperformed the market — and the broader consumer staples sector — since they closed at record highs on May 19. The following day was when President Trump said Iran-war negotiations were in the "final stages," sending oil sharply lower and taking some of the shine off the defensive trade in Costco and Walmart.
随后在5月21日，沃尔玛公布的第二季度盈利预测低于分析师预期，引发了整个板块的抛售潮。此后，这两只股票都未能收复此前的跌幅。好市多在上个月的季度报告中确实提供了许多令人鼓舞的信息：整体销售额和可比销售额均高于去年同期，公司还表示计划在未来一个财年内新增33家仓库。然而，财报发布后股价仅上涨了3%，与股价需要弥补的跌幅相比，这不过是杯水车薪。当然，报告中也存在一些细微的隐忧。
Then, on May 21, Walmart forecast second-quarter profit below analyst expectations, triggering a sector-wide sell-off. Neither stock has been able to claw those losses back. Costco gave investors plenty to like in its quarterly report last month. Both overall and comparable sales were up from a year earlier, and the company said it plans to open 33 additional warehouses over the next fiscal year. But the resulting 3% post-earnings gain was a drop in the bucket compared to how much ground the stock has to make up. There were some minor caveats.
好市多的盈利超出预期，部分原因是一次性的关税退款，而会员费的增长则有所放缓。当一只股票的价格已经充分反映了诸多因素时，投资者往往会注意到每一个附加说明。沃尔玛的处境则与消费者焦虑更为直接相关。该公司8月底公布的最新业绩超出预期，并上调了全年业绩指引。但美国可比销售额的增长也放缓至六年来的最低水平。
Costco's profit beat was partially driven by a one-time tariff refund, while membership-fee growth slowed. When so much has been priced into a stock, investors tend to notice every asterisk. Walmart's path has been even more directly tied to consumer anxiety. Its latest results from late August beat expectations, and the company raised full-year guidance. But US comparable-sales growth also slowed to its weakest pace in six years.
当然，这正是投资者关注的焦点。财报对沃尔玛而言已如同雷区，其股价在过去两次财报发布后分别下跌了9%和7%。原因众所周知：尽管公司正在扩大市场份额并吸引新客户，但这些增长对投资者而言仍不够快。好市多和沃尔玛所面临的根本矛盾在于：它们的股票越是被视为防御性投资而推高价格，投资者就越关注其增长潜力——而财报发布时的风险也越高。
And that, of course, is what investors focused on. Earnings reports have become a minefield for Walmart, with shares falling 9% and 7% after its past two reports, respectively. The reason is familiar: Even though the company is gaining market share and adding customers, they still aren't growing fast enough for investors. The ultimate tension with Costco and Walmart is that the more their stocks get priced up as defensive plays, the more investors care about their growth — and the higher the stakes get when they report.
归根结底，好市多和沃尔玛在股市上的故事，并非关于空荡荡的停车场和货架。恰恰相反，越是有人蜂拥而至寻找优惠，它们所面临的期望就越高。它们或许是极佳的购物场所，但这并不自动意味着其股票值得买入。
Ultimately, the story of Costco and Walmart in the stock market isn't a tale of empty parking lots and aisles. It's quite the opposite. The more people flock there for deals, the higher the bar gets. They may be great places to shop, but that doesn't automatically make their stocks a buy.