根据新研究，厄尔尼诺现象和热带大西洋的变暖可在最多7个月前预警亚马逊部分地区的极端高温。
El Nino and warming in the tropical Atlantic could provide warnings of extreme heat across parts of the Amazon as much as seven months in advance, according to new research.
发表在《地球的未来》期刊上的这项研究考察了主要自然气候变化模式如何影响亚马逊盆地的温度和降雨极端天气。
The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, examined how major patterns of natural climate variability influence temperature and rainfall extremes across the Amazon Basin.
澳大利亚气候研究中心ARC Centre表示，研究人员发现，与热带太平洋的厄尔尼诺现象相关的异常温暖条件以及热带大西洋部分地区的变暖，更容易出现极端高温。该中心周二发布了这些发现。
Researchers found that extreme heat was more likely after unusually warm conditions associated with El Nino in the tropical Pacific and warming in parts of the tropical Atlantic, according to the Australian climate research center ARC Centre, which published the findings Tuesday.
最清晰的长期信号出现在3月至5月，当时极端的亚马逊高温与早达7个月之前观测到的海洋条件相关。
The clearest long-range signal emerged for March-May, when extreme Amazon heat was associated with ocean conditions observed up to seven months earlier.
这项研究的合著者、新南威尔斯大学副教授安德里亚·塔斯契诺表示：“令人惊讶的是，高温极端现象与热带太平洋和热带大西洋海洋条件提前7个月就能观测到的相关性。”
“It is quite surprising that heat extremes are linked to conditions in the Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans observed up to seven months in advance,” said UNSW Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, a study co-author.
研究人员分析了1950年至2023年间六个亚马逊地区的月度气候数据，并使用机器学习技术研究复合高温干旱事件。
Researchers analyzed monthly climate data from 1950 to 2023 across six Amazon regions and also used machine learning to examine compound hot-dry events.
这些事件可能增加野火风险，损害生态系统，并威胁人类健康、粮食安全和水资源供应。
Those events can increase wildfire risks, damage ecosystems and threaten human health, food security and water supplies.
研究人员提醒称，7个月的关系仅适用于极端高温，而非可靠的7个月复合高温和干旱预报。
The researchers cautioned that the seven-month relationship applies to extreme heat, not reliable seven-month forecasts of combined heat and drought.
复合事件的可预见性在季节和地区之间存在很大的差异，通常有用的信号仅限于较短的时间段。
Predictability of compound events varied considerably by season and region, with useful signals generally limited to shorter periods.