几十年前，选民们常常采取跨党派投票的方式。也就是说，他们可能会投票给竞选州级公职的民主党候选人——比如总统、州长或美国参议员——同时又把票投给竞选其他公职的共和党人。在最近的几次选举中，这种做法已基本绝迹。不过，由于特朗普领导的共和党在民调中表现糟糕，今年11月我们或许会看到跨党派投票现象再度兴起。
There was a time decades ago when voters often engaged in split-ticket voting. That is, electing a Democratic candidate running statewide for one office — such as for president, governor or U.S. Senate — while electing a Republican for a different office. In recent elections, that practice had largely disappeared. But with the Trump-led Republicans doing so poorly in the polls, we may see a resurgence of the split-ticket voter in November.
过去，跨党派投票相当普遍。据Ballotpedia统计，“不同党派候选人同时获胜的情况”在1920年时处于低谷，随后逐步上升，到1984年达到顶峰——当时有58.4%的选民在联邦及州级选举中既投票给共和党人，也投票给民主党人。然而到了2016年，这一比例跌至历史最低点。当年，没有任何一个州出现“选民投票给某一党派的参议员，却又把总统选票投给另一党派候选人”的情况。
Split-ticket voting used to be fairly common. What Ballotpedia calls “mixed-party election outcomes” rose from a low in 1920 to its peak in 1984, when 58.4 percent of voters would vote for both a Republican and a Democrat in federal and state elections. That practice fell to a historic low by 2016. In that year, no state elected a senator from one party while voting for the presidential candidate from the other party.
2020年大选前夕，皮尤研究中心指出：“在党派对立日益加剧的当下，跨党派投票在美国政坛依然十分罕见。”同年，该机构称：在那些同时举行参议员选举的州，仅有4%的选民表示自己会分别投票给不同党派的候选人来竞选总统和参议员。
Just before the 2020 election, the Pew Research Center noted, “In an era of increasing partisanship, split-ticket voting continues to be rare in U.S. politics.”In that presidential election year, Pew claimed that only 4 percent ofed voters in states with a Senate election said they would be voting for a different party candidate for president and the Senate.
不过2024年，跨党派投票现象有所增多。据皮尤研究中心统计，有四个州的选民在投票给特朗普的同时，也选出了民主党籍参议员。该机构总结道：“这一数字看似不多，但却是2020年、2021年和2022年所有参议员选举中‘跨党派投票情况’总和的两倍。”
But split-ticket voting increased in 2024. According to Pew, voters in four states that voted for President Trump also elected a Democratic senator. Pew concludes, “That may not seem like a lot, but it’s twice as many ‘mismatches’ between states’ presidential and U.S. Senate results as in all Senate elections held in 2020, 2021 and 2022 combined.”
虽然即将到来的中期选举中特朗普并未作为候选人参选，但跨党派投票现象仍有可能进一步增加，从而助力那些在共和党势力较强的州参选的民主党人。例如，在德克萨斯州，民主党参议员候选人、州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科数周来在民调中始终领先于共和党候选人、司法部长肯·帕克斯顿，领先幅度通常在2%至5%之间。
While Trump isn’t on the ticket in the coming midterm election, we may see an even bigger increase in split-ticket voting, helping Democrats running in statewide races in red states. For example, in Texas, the Democratic candidate for Senate, state Rep. James Talarico (D), has led Republican candidate Attorney General Ken Paxton in the polls for weeks, usually by between 2 and 5 points.
相比之下，共和党籍州长……在大多数民意调查中，格雷格·阿博特都领先于他的民主党竞争对手、州众议员吉娜·伊诺霍萨，不过并非所有调查都是如此——通常领先幅度在2到5个百分点之间。以保守倾向极强的得克萨斯州而言，是否有可能选出一位民主党籍参议员和一位共和党籍州长呢？民意调查结果显示这种可能性确实存在。
In contrast, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has led his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, in most, but not all, polls — usually by between 2 and 5 points. Could very red Texas elect a Democratic senator and Republican governor? The polls indicate it’s possible.
再看看艾奥瓦州，该州在历次选举中均倾向于支持共和党。目前，民主党州长候选人、州审计长罗布·桑德的民调支持率一直高于共和党候选人扎克·拉恩。不过，在争夺艾奥瓦州空缺席位的参议员选举中，共和党候选人、众议员阿什利·欣森与她的民主党对手、州众议员乔什·图雷克之间的民调结果则参差不齐。因此，艾奥瓦州极有可能出现选出民主党州长和共和党参议员的局面。
And then there is Iowa, which has been voting red for several election cycles. As it stands, the Democratic candidate for governor, state auditor Rob Sand, has been polling consistently stronger than the Republican candidate, Zach Lahn. However, polling for the Republican candidate for Iowa’s open Senate seat, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), has been mixed against her Democratic opponent, state Rep. Josh Turek. So, at this point it’s quite possible that Iowa could elect a Democratic governor and a Republican senator.
再来看缅因州：民主党州长候选人、前缅因州众议院议长汉娜·平里的支持率数周来一直大幅领先于共和党候选人博比·查尔斯。现任共和党籍参议员苏珊·柯林斯在一些民调中略领先于她的民主党对手、前州参议员特洛伊·杰克逊，但在其他民调中则处于落后地位。值得一提的是，2020年柯林斯是全美唯一一位在总统选举结果与自己所属政党相悖的州里成功连任的参议员——当时缅因州选民选择了民主党候选人乔·拜登。如果柯林斯此次再度获胜，则表明缅因州选民倾向于跨党派投票。
Or consider Maine. The Democratic candidate for governor, former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, is polling way ahead of the Republican candidate, Bobby Charles, and has been for weeks. The incumbent Senate candidate, Susan Collins (R), has a small lead in some polls against her Democratic challenger, former state Sen. Troy Jackson (D), although she trails in others. However, in 2020, Collins was the one Senate candidate in the country who won in a state that voted for the presidential candidate from the other party, Joe Biden. If Collins does that again, it will be an indication of Mainers voting split-ticket.
此外，阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州、乔治亚州、新罕布什尔州以及堪萨斯州等数个州也存在出现“参议员与州长分属不同政党”的可能性，甚至可能还有更多州出现类似情况。对共和党而言，问题在于这些可能出现跨党派投票现象的州大多属于传统上的“红色州”，而共和党人往往会在这种跨党派投票中处于劣势。事实上，库克政治报告以及弗吉尼亚大学拉里·萨巴托政治中心近期多次调整了中期选举的选情评级，几乎所有调整结果都对民主党有利。
There are several other states where there could be a senator/governor split ticket — Alaska, Ohio, Georgia, New Hampshire and Kansas, and possibly more. The problem for Republicans is that most of these potential split-ticket races appear to be in red states where a Republican ends up on the short end of the ticket-splitting. Indeed, both the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics at the University of Virginia have recently made multiple rating changes for the midterm election, virtually all in favor of Democrats.
分裂投票在20世纪90年代和2000年代开始减少，因为两党在意识形态上变得更加坚定。如今，与任一政党立场一致的选民通常不愿投票给另一党的候选人。但特朗普的极化行为和言论、在经济和通胀问题上的低支持率，以及与伊朗的战争，正在促使选民——尤其是独立选民，甚至许多传统共和党人——重新考虑他们对分裂投票的抵触情绪。
Split-ticket voting began to decline in the 1990s and 2000s, as both parties became more ideologically committed. Today, voters who align with either political party are generally reluctant to vote for candidates from the other. But Trump’s polarizing actions and comments, low approval ratings on the economy and inflation, and the war with Iran are pushing voters — especially independents but even many traditional Republicans — to reconsider their split-ticket reluctance.
就连长期担任共和党战略家的卡尔·罗夫也宣布他将成为分裂投票者，在德克萨斯州投票给一位民主党候选人（竞选铁路专员），原因是共和党候选人发表了一些极具争议的言论。如果我们看到分裂投票的回归，或者对共和党来说更糟的蓝色浪潮，共和党人只能怪自己。他们追随特朗普，放弃了共和党长期坚持的财政责任、有限政府以及国会在宣战和征税（关税）方面的宪法角色等原则。
Even longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove has announced he will be a split-ticket voter, voting for one Democratic candidate in Texas (for railroad commissioner) because of some very controversial remarks made by the Republican candidate. If we see a return of split-ticket voting, or even worse for Republicans, a blue wave, Republicans will have no one to blame but themselves. They have followed Trump in abandoning long-held Republican principles on fiscal responsibility, limited government, and Congress’s constitutional role in declaring war and imposing taxes (tariffs).
当选民在20世纪80年代分裂投票时，他们是在为两党的候选人投票。在即将到来的中期选举中，他们与其说是在投票给民主党人，不如说是在投票反对共和党人。梅里尔·马修斯是“我们的共和党遗产”组织的德克萨斯州主席。
When voters split their tickets in the 1980s, they were voting for candidates in both parties. In the coming midterm election, they won’t be voting for Democrats so much as voting against Republicans. Merrill Matthews is the Texas state chair of Our Republican Legacy.