据洛伦·格鲁什报道，美国国家航空航天局（NASA）即将宣布大规模采购火箭发射服务，以此推进其耗资300亿美元的月球基地建设项目——旨在为人类在月球上生活与工作打造永久性据点。
NASA is close to announcing a bulk purchase of rocket launches to fuel its $30 billion drive to build a permanent base on the moon for humans to live and work.
这一新战略出台的背景是：随着太空产业需求激增，火箭供应却出现短缺。NASA希望借此提前化解这一瓶颈，通过采购多种类型的火箭来确保向月球运送货物的渠道多样化。
It’s a new strategy that comes as the space industry is grappling with a shortage of rockets amid booming demand. But the agency is hoping to get ahead of this bottleneck now, by buying a variety of rockets to provide options for getting cargo to the lunar surface.
“我们正在评估诸如批量采购火箭的方案，以满足月球基地建设的所有需求，”NASA月球基地项目负责人卡洛斯·加西亚-加兰在接受彭博社采访时说道，“近期我们很可能就会宣布首批批量采购计划。”
“We are evaluating things like NASA doing bulk buys of launchers that could service all the moon base needs,” Carlos García-Galán, NASA’s moon base program manager, said in an interview with Bloomberg.
目前，月球基地建设的第一阶段已正式启动。NASA计划到2028年陆续发射着陆器与探测车，对月球上的适宜选址及资源分布情况进行勘察。不过到了2029年，该机构需要运力更强的火箭，才能将多达60公吨（约13.2万磅）的设备送往月球表面，用于搭建供电系统、居住舱及其他保障人类长期驻留所需的基础设施。
“In the near future, we’ll probably announce the first set of these bulk buys,” he said. The first phase of the moon base is already underway, with NASA planning to send landers and rovers to scout locations and resources on the moon through 2028. But it needs larger rockets in 2029 to launch as much as 60 metric tons (132,000 pounds) of equipment to the lunar surface to build power systems, habitats and other infrastructure required for a permanent human presence.
而正是在第二阶段这一更为关键的环节，NASA面临着棘手难题。
This second, more ambitious phase is where the agency faces a snag.
目前，美国乃至全球发射次数最多的火箭——SpaceX公司的“猎鹰9号”即将迎来产能放缓。据彭博社报道，SpaceX已开始婉拒那些希望于2028年之后使用“猎鹰9号”将卫星送入轨道的运营商。倘若“猎鹰9号”及其运力更强的“猎鹰重型”火箭相继退出市场，NASA的月球基地建设计划恐将受阻。
NASA is staring down the impending slowdown of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the most prolific rocket in the US — and the world. SpaceX has started to turn away satellite operators seeking dedicated rides to orbit aboard its staple Falcon 9 rocket beyond 2028, Bloomberg has reported. The potential absence of the rocket and its larger variant, the Falcon Heavy, from the market could spell trouble for NASA’s moon base plans.
“我们很早就意识到了即将出现的问题，现在也完全清楚情况，”加西亚-加兰说道，“SpaceX公开披露了其发展规划，这为我们提供了寻找替代方案的机会，我们也确实在这么做。”目前SpaceX尚未对外公布“猎鹰”系列火箭项目终止的具体时间。
“We know the issue that’s coming, early. We know it now,”García-Galán said. “SpaceX has been transparent with their plans, so it gives us the option to look for alternatives, and we have.”SpaceX has not provided a clear timeline publicly on when the Falcon program will end.
据加西亚-加兰介绍，通过这些批量采购计划，NASA可以一次性订购四到五种不同类型的火箭，并将每种火箭与其所需的商业登月舱相匹配，以实现将载荷送至月球表面的目标。如果这些火箭还有剩余运载能力，NASA还可以向其他有意前往月球的机构——包括其他政府部门——发出搭载申请。
Through these bulk purchases, NASA may opt to buy four or five different rockets at a time and match each vehicle to a commercial lander the agency needs to get to the moon’s surface, according to García-Galán. And if there’s extra room on those rockets, the agency could put out a call to others, including government agencies, interested in hitching a ride to the moon.
加西亚-加兰并未具体说明哪些型号的火箭会被纳入采购范围，也未说明猎鹰9号或猎鹰重型火箭是否会在其中。
García-Galán did not specify which rockets would be included, nor did he clarify if the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy might be included in these purchases.
目前市场上能与猎鹰9号相媲美的火箭寥寥无几。美国本土的主要竞争对手包括蓝色起源公司的“新格伦”火箭以及联合发射联盟公司的“火神”火箭。不过，“新格伦”自5月份因发射台发生爆炸后便处于停飞状态；而“火神”也因助推器出现问题，自2月份以来一直未能发射。
There are only a few comparable alternatives to the Falcon 9 currently on the market. The biggest US competitors include Blue Origin LLC’s New Glenn and United Launch Alliance LLC’s Vulcan. However, New Glenn has been grounded since May, after a launchpad explosion, and Vulcan hasn’t flown since February due to issues with its strap-on boosters.
分析机构Quilty Space的研究总监凯勒布·亨利指出：“目前没有任何一款火箭能够完全替代猎鹰9号，事实就是如此。”
“There’s no one right now that is in a place to be a suitable replacement for Falcon 9, just full stop,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at analytics firm Quilty Space.
此外，火箭的供应能力也令人担忧。“新格伦”与“火神”均承担着为亚马逊公司的“柯伊伯计划”发射数十颗卫星的任务，同时它们还被合同指定用于发射美国军方的国家安全卫星。
There are also concerns over availability. Both New Glenn and Vulcan are on the hook to launch dozens of missions for Amazon.com Inc.’s Leo satellite service. And the two rockets are contracted to launch national security satellites for the US military.
其他有望替代猎鹰9号的火箭预计将在未来几年内投入运营，包括火箭实验室公司的“中子”火箭、相对论空间公司的“特拉恩R”火箭、萤火虫宇航公司的“日食”火箭以及斯托克太空公司的“诺瓦”火箭。不过新火箭的产能提升向来缓慢，因此尚不确定到2029年时它们能否实现大规模发射。
Other Falcon 9 alternatives are supposed to become operational in the months and years ahead, including Rocket Lab Corp.’s Neutron, Relativity Space Inc.’s Terran R, Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s Eclipse and Stoke Space’s Nova. But new rockets are notoriously slow to ramp up, making it unclear if they’ll be flying at a significant pace by 2029.
亨利补充道：“对于新研发的运载火箭而言，通常的规律是：在投入使用的头五年里，平均每年能成功发射的次数很难超过三次。”
“The general rule of thumb for new launch vehicles is that they typically struggle to launch more than on average three times a year for their first five years,” Henry said.
另一个潜在的选择便是SpaceX研发的下一代火箭“星舰”。不过，在该火箭能够抵达月球附近区域之前，仍需克服一系列技术难题。SpaceX也在研发专门用于运送人类登陆月面的“星舰”变体型号，但目前尚不清楚该火箭能否用于纯粹的月球货运任务，也不清楚公司能以多快的速度提升发射频率。
Another potential option is SpaceX’s next-generation Starship. However, the rocket still faces a list of technical challenges that must be overcome before it can reach the moon’s vicinity. SpaceX is also working on a variant of Starship to land people on the lunar surface, but it’s unclear how available the rocket will be for purely cargo flights to the moon and how quickly the company can ramp up launches.
尽管存在诸多挑战，NASA仍寄望于通过现在批量采购火箭来实现其宏伟目标。加西亚-加兰表示，NASA一直力求不对那些正在研发登月着陆器与探测车的商业合作伙伴进行过多干预，但倘若这些公司遇到急需火箭的困境，这一新策略或许能派上用场。
Despite the clear challenges, NASA hopes that by buying rockets in bulk now, the agency can meet its ambitious goals. García-Galán said NASA is still trying to be hands off with its commercial partners who are developing landers and rovers, but this new strategy may help if those companies find themselves in a bind needing a rocket.
“这一举措本质上是为了最大限度地提升我们的灵活性，让我们有更多选择来确保任务成功，”加西亚-加兰说道。
“It is basically maximizing our flexibility and ability to look for different options to succeed,” García-Galán said.