位于弗吉尼亚大学的选举预测机构“Sabato’s Crystal Ball”已将阿拉斯加参议院选举的预测结果调整为对民主党更有利的趋势。该机构将选举结果从“势均力敌”调整为“民主党略占优势”，表明民调数据及其他指标均表明，前阿拉斯加州众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola，民主党）有可能击败现任参议员丹·沙利文（Dan Sullivan，共和党）。
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, has shifted its race rating for the Alaska Senate race to be more optimistic for Democrats. The outlet moved the race to “Leans Democrat” from “Toss-up,” showing that polling data and other indicators are increasingly suggesting former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) could topple incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).
J·迈尔斯·科尔曼（J. Miles Coleman）和凯尔·康迪克（Kyle Kondik）在发布的新闻稿中写道：“尽管沙利文作为现任参议员没有明显的丑闻，仍拥有一些优势（尤其是该州偏向共和党的政治环境）；但几个月来我们的判断一直是：阿拉斯加这个拥有独特选举制度的小州，或许是民主党在共和党控制的参议院中最为有希望获胜的目标。”
“Sullivan, as an incumbent without any obvious scandals, still has some advantages, aside from the state’s red terrain,” wrote J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik in a press release announcing the shift. They mentioned the state’s over-45 population, which is still predominately swinging for Sullivan. “But our general sense for months has been that Alaska, a small, quirky state with a unique election system, was perhaps the most promising red state Senate target for Democrats.”
尽管预测结果发生了变化，这场选举的竞争依然非常激烈。阿拉斯加总体上属于共和党控制的州，全国性的共和党组织仍在投入大量资金攻击佩尔托拉的过往记录；特朗普的代理人（尤其是副总统J.D.万斯）也在该州为沙利文拉票。另一家选举预测机构“Decision Desk HQ”同样认为佩尔托拉更有可能获胜。另一家知名选举预测机构“Cook Political Report”则仍认为选举结果难以预测。
Despite the rating change, the race is still very competitive. Alaska is generally a red state, national Republicans are still spending plenty of money to attack Peltola’s record, and Trump surrogates, most notably Vice President JD Vance, are stumping for Sullivan there. Decision Desk HQ, another election handicapper, also has Peltola slightly favored to win. The other big name in election ratings, Cook Political Report, still has the race as a toss-up. Peltola is a unique candidate as a centrist Democrat, Alaska Native and former congresswoman who was already elected statewide twice.
佩尔托拉是一位独特的候选人——她既是中间派民主党人，又是阿拉斯加原住民，并曾两次当选州议员。她的竞选口号是“渔业、家庭与自由”，承诺致力于打击企业利益并解决阿拉斯加的资源问题。民主党需要赢得四个参议院席位才能在中期选举中掌握多数席位。
She’s running on a campaign slogan of “fish, family and freedom,” vowing to fight corporate interests and solve Alaska’s resource problems. Sullivan has emphasized his service in the Senate passing legislation that benefited industries and veterans, among other groups, in Alaska. Democrats need to net four Senate seats to take the majority in the midterm elections.
北卡罗来纳州似乎是他们赢得一个席位的最大希望，但库克政治报告也将缅因州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州和爱荷华州共和党人把持的席位竞争视为势均力敌。民主党正在捍卫库克列为势均力敌的另外两个席位，分别在密歇根州和新罕布什尔州。共和党有望守住堪萨斯州的一个参议院席位，尽管该州的竞争日益被视为胶着。民主党在明尼苏达州和佐治亚州的竞争中占优，尽管这两场竞争也被视为胶着。
North Carolina appears to be their best chance of winning a seat, but races in seats held by Republicans in Maine, Ohio, Texas and Iowa are also seen as toss-ups by Cook. Democrats are defending seats in two other races listed by Cook as toss-ups in Michigan and New Hampshire. Republicans are favored to hold a Senate seat in Kansas, though the race in that state is increasingly seen as competitive. Democrats are favored in races in Minnesota and Georgia, though both are seen as competitive.