加拿大议会预算办公室周二表示，根据自由党政府提出的达到北约国内生产总值5%基准目标的方案，到2035年，加拿大在军事上的直接支出可能达到1636亿加元。
Direct spending on the Canadian military could reach $163.6 billion by 2035 under the Liberal government's proposal to meet NATO's benchmark target of five per cent of GDP, the Parliamentary Budget Office said Tuesday.
然而，该财政监督机构在一份新报告中指出，仍有许多未知因素可能影响未来的政府财政。
However, a lot of unknowns remain that could affect government finances down the road, the fiscal watchdog said in a new report.
由议会预算办公室研究人员撰写的报告称：“履行加拿大的国防承诺将需要大幅增加政府支出和投资，这对加拿大的经济活动、工业产能和生产结构具有重要影响。”
"Meeting Canada's defence commitments will require substantial increases in government expenditure and investment, with important implications for economic activity, industrial capacity and the composition of production in Canada," said the report penned by PBO researchers.
议会预算办公室表示，由于联邦政府在计算国防支出时采用权责发生制——即在实际赚取收入时记账，在应付账款到期时支付账单，而非在现金实际流动时记录——因此其影响“将使预算赤字增加637亿加元，相当于国内生产总值的1.4%”。
Since the federal government uses an accrual method when counting defence expenditures — basically recording money when it is earned, and paying bills when they are owed, not when cash actually changes hands — the impact "would increase the budgetary deficit by $63.7 billion, or 1.4 per cent of GDP," the PBO said.
财政压力的大小将取决于总理马克·卡尼的政府如何管理这一增长。议会预算办公室提出了两种情景：一种是新设备采购逐步稳定增长，另一种是采购被推迟。
What the fiscal pain might be will depend on how Prime Minister Mark Carney's government manages the increase. The PBO presents two scenarios: one where there's a gradual, steady increase in the buying of new equipment and the other where purchases are postponed.
分析：加拿大下一场国防之争将不是关于支出，而是关于信任。渥太华计划设立皇冠公司以打破国防采购僵局。
AnalysisCanada's next defence fight won’t be over spending. It’ll be over trust Ottawa plans Crown corporation to break defence procurement logjam Under both the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau and the Conservative government of Stephen Harper, it became routine to postpone big-ticket equipment purchases.
在贾斯廷·特鲁多的自由党政府和斯蒂芬·哈珀的保守党政府执政期间，推迟大额设备采购已成为常态。部分项目的资金被重新分配到后续年度；在其他情况下，资金失效并返还给联邦国库。
Money from some of those items was reprofiled to later years; in other cases, the funds lapsed and were returned to the federal treasury. In a previous report, the PBO tracked more than $18 billion set aside for military spending that lapsed under the Trudeau government.
在先前的一份报告中，议会预算办公室追踪到超过180亿加元预留用于军事支出的资金在特鲁多政府任期内失效。
Carney ordered the injection of $9 billion into defence last year in order for Canada to meet the old NATO spending benchmark of two per cent of gross domestic product.
卡尼去年下令向国防注入90亿美元，以使加拿大达到北约占国内生产总值2%的旧支出基准。占GDP 5%的新目标（3.5%用于直接军事支出，1.5%用于国防基础设施支出）将在未来十年内逐步实施。
The new target of five per cent of GDP — 3.5 per cent on direct military spending and 1.5 per cent on defence infrastructure — is to be phased in gradually over the next decade. Carney has said the plan is for Canada to hit a four per cent target on defence spending — 2.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent — by 2030.
卡尼表示，加拿大计划到2030年实现国防支出4%的目标（2.5%和1.5%）。
Annette Ryan, who took over as parliamentary budget officer in the spring, told the House of Commons defence committee on Monday that the government's plan to reach the new target after 2030 is still a work in progress.
春季接任议会预算官员的安妮特·瑞安周一告诉下议院国防委员会，政府在2030年后实现新目标的计划仍在进行中。
"It'll take some time before we can actually see the effect of all of these investments," she told committee MPs.
她告诉委员会议员：“我们需要一段时间才能真正看到所有这些投资的效果。”
Ryan said the PBO has begun work to model what sort of economic impact the drastic increase in defence spending will have on federal finances and the Canadian economy.
瑞安表示，国防预算办公室已开始研究国防支出的大幅增加将对联邦财政和加拿大经济产生什么样的经济影响。
"This is a very rapid increase," Ryan said in French, noting there are procurement risks.
瑞安用法语说：“这是一个非常迅速的增长。”他指出存在采购风险。
"I think that Canada's industrial capacity may not be able to meet the need, which is a risk.… And we might ask, what are we getting back from all of these industrial and technological purchases?
“我认为加拿大的工业产能可能无法满足需求，这是一个风险..我们可能会问，我们从所有这些工业和技术购买中得到了什么？这是另一个风险来源，”她说。“所以是的，这些非常重要的资金存在许多风险。"
That's another source of risk," she said. "So yes, there are a number of risks associated with these very significant sums of money."