元平台公司可能会将数十亿美元的潜在云收入拱手而过。原因是，它可能发现了更好的利用算力的方法。在周二发给客户的报告中，富国银行认为对该公司人工智能代理“慕塞”(Muse)的关注是有理由的。同时，该行分析师从2027年的预测中移除了500兆瓦的预期容量出售业务——约合50亿美元的高利润收入——因为“慕塞”的早期成功使得元平台公司需要这些算力的可能性越来越大。
Meta Platforms may be leaving billions of dollars in potential cloud revenue on the table. The reason? It may have found a much better use for its computing power. In a Tuesday note to clients, Wells Fargo argued that enthusiasm around the company's Muse artificial intelligence agent is justified.
我们认为这个权衡是值得的。出租未使用的容量可以相对快速地带来收入，但“慕塞”有潜力成为更大的业务。富国银行周二将元平台股票的目标价从796美元上调至1000美元，暗示较周一收盘价上涨约35%。“我们是否真的更喜欢SpaceX，因为它们有更多的算力可以借出，而不是更喜欢一家真正使用算力并将其做成大生意的公司？”
At the same time, the analysts removed 500 megawatts of expected capacity resales from its 2027 estimates — roughly $5 billion of high-margin revenue — because Muse's early success makes it increasingly likely Meta will need that computing power itself. We're fine with that trade-off. Renting out unused capacity could generate revenue relatively quickly, but Muse has the potential to become a much larger business over time. Wells Fargo raised its price target on Club stock Meta to $1,000 from $796 on Tuesday, implying nearly 35% upside to Monday's close.
吉姆·克拉默在周二的《早间会议》节目中说道。“我希望这些算力被用于非常有生产性的事情。”对于SpaceX来说，出租算力容量更有意义，因为它可以从未充分利用的基础设施中获得现金。元平台公司已经拥有一个非常盈利的广告业务，这使得它更灵活地进行长期投资。来自所谓新云提供商的日益激烈的竞争最终可能会对简单出租计算能力的经济性施加压力。
"Do we really like SpaceX more because they have more compute that they can lend than we like a company that's actually taking the compute and making it into a big business?" Jim Cramer said during Tuesday's Morning Meeting . "I want the compute to be used for something that's very productive." Renting out compute capacity made more sense for SpaceX as a way to generate cash from infrastructure it wasn't fully using. Meta already has a highly profitable advertising business, giving it more flexibility to invest for the long term.
这与几个月前投资者对元平台的看法有着显著不同，当时人们的主要关注点是元平台是否会推出云业务。由于Facebook和Instagram的母公司投入了越来越庞大的资金用于人工智能基础设施，但未能向华尔街提供足够的证据证明这些投资将如何带来新的收入，股票在多数时间表现疲弱。
Growing competition from so-called neocloud providers could eventually pressure the economics of simply renting out computing power. That's a significant change from how investors were looking at Meta just a couple of months ago, when much of the focus was on whether Meta would launch a cloud business.
吉姆一直力促Meta推进云业务计划。7月1日，Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格证实该计划确实在考虑之列，这一消息让股价暂时得以喘息。然而，由于相关细节始终未明确，7月下旬Meta公布的第二季度业绩不及预期且业绩指引也令人失望，导致股价再度下跌。
Shares struggled for much of the year as the Facebook and Instagram parent poured increasingly large sums into AI infrastructure without giving Wall Street enough evidence of how those investments would generate new revenue. Jim had been pushing Meta on the cloud idea — and on July 1, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg confirmed it was on the table, giving the stock a brief reprieve. However, a lack of specifics boiled over after Meta's second-quarter earnings miss and disappointing guidance in late July, sending the stock right back down.
随后情况开始出现转机。在消费者业务方面，8月26日Meta与全美各州总检察长就青少年社交媒体成瘾相关诉讼达成和解，和解金额最高达180亿美元。这一结果避免了出现吉姆所担心的、若败诉可能面临的约2000亿美元罚款。9月8日，Meta推出了Muse服务，用户可借助该服务完成从发送邮件、预订行程到购物等各类任务。市场的初步反响迅速改变了投资者对这只股票的看法。9月份，Meta股价飙升27%，创下2022年11月以来的最佳单月表现，而同期标准普尔500指数则下跌了0.5%。
META YTD mountain Meta Platforms YTD Then things started to really turn around. On the consumer side, Meta on Aug. 26 settled youth social media addiction litigation with attorneys general from across the nation for up to $18 billion, avoiding what Jim thought could be some $200 billion in fines in the event of courtroom losses. On Sept. 8, Meta launched Muse, allowing users to hand off tasks ranging from sending emails to booking travel and making purchases. The early response quickly changed the conversation around the stock. Meta shares surged 27% in September, its best month since Nov. 2022 , compared with a 0.5% decline on the benchmark S & P 500 . That buttoned up the consumer side.
在消费者业务取得进展后，扎克伯格又着手强化企业业务。9月28日，他宣布成立全新的Meta企业平台业务部门，并聘请MongoDB首席执行官CJ·德赛来负责运营。次日，Meta又推出了面向小型企业的Muse服务。“Muse的受欢迎程度超乎想象，下载量持续攀升，”吉姆说道，“用户使用Muse后能完成更多任务。我敢说它的价值绝对不容小觑。”
Then, Zuckerberg stepped up his enterprise game. On Sept. 28, he announced the new Meta Enterprise Platform business and hired MongoDB CEO CJ Desai to run it. The next day, Meta unveiled Muse for Small Business. "[Muse] is incredibly popular, and we know it's been downloaded and downloaded," Jim said.
富国银行将这一发展态势与2022年Reels服务刚推出时的情况相类比，同时指出Muse最终有望开启一个规模更为庞大的AI驱动型产品周期。不过，相关的财务收益预计不会立刻显现。分析师们提醒投资者，不要指望Muse能在2027年显著提升Meta的业绩表现。据估算，由于Meta仍在持续建设支撑其AI战略所需的基础设施，明年其运营支出可能达到约2120亿美元，这一数值高于目前华尔街市场预期的2020亿美元。
"You get Muse, and then you do a lot more with it. And I defy you to say that that's not worth something." Wells Fargo compared the setup to the early days of Reels in 2022, but said Muse could ultimately represent a much larger AI-driven product cycle. The financial payoff, however, isn't expected right away.
华瑞银行将其2027年每股收益预期下调至31.18美元，并认为明年可能是谷底，之后在2028年人工智能产品收入开始更有意义地做出贡献时，预计每股收益将上升至40.02美元。尽管如此，分析师们认为Meta的广告引擎为扎克伯格争取到长远博弈的 luxury。华瑞银行预计第三季收入约为640亿美元，同比增长25%，位于公司指导范围的高端。
The analysts cautioned against expecting Muse to meaningfully boost Meta's results in 2027. They estimate operating expenses could reach roughly $212 billion next year, above the current Wall Street consensus of $202 billion, as Meta continues building the infrastructure needed to support its AI ambitions. Wells Fargo cut its 2027 earnings estimate to $31.18 per share and views next year as a potential trough before AI product revenue begins contributing more meaningfully in 2028, when it expects earnings to climb to $40.02 per share.
我们或许永远无法获得我们曾设想的Meta云业务，但如果Muse能够交付，我们就不需要它。明年可能仍然以人工智能支出为主，而非人工智能收入，但我们更愿意看到Meta利用其计算能力打造自身的下一个增长引擎，而不是租借给他人。（吉姆卡雷的慈善信托长仓META。完整股票列表请见此处。）作为CNBC投资俱乐部的成员，你将在吉姆做出交易之前收到交易提醒。
Still, the analysts think that Meta's advertising engine gives Zuckerberg the luxury of playing the long game. Wells Fargo expects third-quarter revenue of roughly $64 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, near the high end of the company's guidance. We may never get the Meta Cloud business we once envisioned, but we don't need it if Muse delivers. The next year may still be dominated by AI spending rather than AI revenue, but we'd much rather see Meta use its computing power to build its own next growth engine than rent it out to someone else. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long META. )