埃隆·马斯克与台湾积体电路制造公司之间可能达成一项协议，内容涉及马斯克正在德克萨斯州兴建的大型半导体工厂Terafab。这一潜在合作对SpaceX目前的合作伙伴英特尔而言可能是个坏消息：周二，英特尔股价连续第二天出现下跌。周一英特尔股价下跌3%，周二盘中又进一步下滑3%。周二台积电股价虽略有走低，但本周至今仍上涨了2.4%。
A possible deal between Elon Musk and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing involving Terafab , the huge semiconductor factory in Texas that the tech CEO is building, could be bad news for incumbent SpaceX partner Intel , which saw its stock tumble Tuesday for a second day in a row. Intel shares dropped 3% on Monday and are down another 3% in Tuesday trading. TSMC shares were slightly lower in Tuesday trading, but are up 2.4% week to date.
自马斯克证实双方正在洽谈以来，华尔街分析师们纷纷推测，此次谈判的重点要么是针对机器人、汽车及人工智能芯片的特定组件设计，要么是涉及知识产权、制造工艺乃至联合运营的更广泛合作协议。
Since Musk confirmed the talks, Wall Street analysts have speculated that the discussions are focused on either targeted component designs for robotics, autos and AI chips or a broader agreement concerning intellectual property, manufacturing processes or even a joint operation. INTC 5D mountain INTC 5 day.
马斯克于周六证实，自己正与这家台湾芯片巨头进行洽谈。他在社交平台X上发文称：“目前只是初步洽谈，但或许会有成果。”同一天，针对一篇称台积电对Terafab的贡献属于辅助性质的报道，马斯克回复称：“没错。”美国银行分析师刘海斯在周一发布的客户报告中指出，此次协议很可能主要涉及马斯克旗下SpaceX与特斯拉产品线的相关组件采购事宜。
'Just discussions' Musk confirmed Saturday that talks were happening with the Taiwanese chip giant, saying in a post on his social media platform X, that they were "just discussions, but something may come of it." Also on Saturday, Musk responded to a post describing TSMC's potential contribution to Terafab as supplemental with the comment, "True." Bank of America analyst Haas Liu said in a Monday note to clients that the deal is likely to be more about component purchases for Musk's product lines across SpaceX and Tesla .
他写道：“随着特斯拉与SpaceX的发展，预计它们与台积电的合作也会加深——目前台积电从这两家公司获得的营收占比约为2%至3%，合作形式既包括直接采购用于汽车、机器人及云端人工智能应用的专用集成电路，也涵盖间接购买高性能计算芯片组（如GPU与网络交换机）。不过，台积电向马斯克方授权技术或共同运营工厂并让后者占据重要份额的可能性较低。”
"We expect a deeper collaboration as Tesla and SpaceX grow at TSMC (2-3% of its sales) directly with their auto/robotics and cloud AI ASICs and indirectly through merchant HPC chipset buys (e.g. GPUs, networking switches)," Lui wrote. "The likelihood of TSMC licensing technology or operating a fab with Terafab holding a meaningful share should be low," he added. SPCX 5D mountain SPCX 5 day.
也有观点认为，双方可能正在商谈涉及半导体制造工艺的更广泛合作协议。DA Davidson公司的科技研究主管吉尔·卢里亚对CNBC表示：“总会有符合商业逻辑的条款存在，台积电完全有能力对提供的技术内容加以限制。”
Others think a broader deal could be in the works concerning foundry processes for the complex business of making semiconductors. "There's always commercial terms that make sense," Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, told CNBC. "TSMC can limit what they give him. … If you're just selling intellectual property, that comes in at nearly 100% margins."
…如果你只是出售知识产权，这几乎是100%的利润率。美国企业研究所的半导体行业专家克里斯·米勒表示，业内长期以来就有这种类型的许可合作和产品联合开发。“这一点也不新鲜，”他说。“你可以分摊研发费用。[如果你认为另外某人]在不同的地理位置经营制造厂更为合适，也会有优势。”
Semiconductor industry expert Chris Miller at the American Enterprise Institute said there's a long history of this type of licensing collaboration and co-development of products within the industry. "That [wouldn't be] new at all," he said. "You can defray the cost of the R & D. [There are also advantages] if you think somebody else is better placed to operate a manufacturing plant in a different geography."
关于对英特尔的潜在影响，这些观点更加一致。摩根士丹利分析师乔丹·克莱因表示，一项TSMC-马斯克交易将“增加对今年春天马斯克和英特尔宣布的特拉法布合作伙伴关系的竞争”。他称这是“对TSM的好消息”和“对INTC多头来说是个轻微的负面消息”。“最终，这并不否定或削弱INTC多头的观点，即赢得新的外部晶圆厂客户，因为特拉法布仍然可能以某种形式存在，”他补充道。
Opinions were more unified regarding the potential implications for Intel. Added competition for Intel A TSMC-Musk deal would "add competition to the initial partnership announced between Musk and INTC for Terafab back in Spring," Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein said. He called it "great news for TSM" and "a modest neg for the INTC bulls." "In the end, it doesn't negate or take away from the INTC bull case of winning new external foundry customers as Terafab still likely in some form," he added.
年初至今，英特尔股价已超过三倍，而TSMC股价上涨近60%。关于TSMC交易对英特尔的影响，DA·戴维斯的劳里亚表示：“英特尔的投资者目前戴着粉色眼镜看待一切。”
Year to date, Intel shares have more than tripled, while TSMC has gained almost 60%. Concerning the implications of TSMC deal for Intel, DA Davidson's Luria said, "Intel's investors are wearing rose-colored glasses right now."