杠杆贷款市场中深度受困的部分已增至自疫情爆发初期以来未见的水平，科技行业是面临压力最大的单一板块。
The deeply distressed tail of the leveraged loan universe has grown to levels not seen since the beginning of the pandemic, with technology the single biggest sector under pressure.
据摩根大通策略师周二撰文称，交易价格低于面值60美分（即深度受困水平）的贷款价值已从一年前的400亿美元增至650亿美元，达到2020年3月以来的最高点。
That’s according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who on Tuesday wrote that the value of loans trading below 60 cents on the dollar, or deeply distressed levels, rose to $65 billion from $40 billion a year ago, to the highest since March 2020.
策略师Nelson Jantzen等人在报告中写道，受困杠杆贷款（即交易价格在面值80美分或以下的贷款）也在上升，总额达1398亿美元，较过去12个月激增近90%，距离2020年5月的高点仅差40亿美元。
Distressed leveraged loans, or those trading at or below 80 cents on the dollar, are also on the rise, totaling $139.8 billion, a nearly 90% jump over the past 12 months and just $4 billion shy of a high in May 2020, strategists including Nelson Jantzen wrote in a report.
目前约有141家杠杆贷款发行人的交易价格低于面值80美分，比一年前增加了35家，其中软件供应商CDK Global、QLIK Technologies Inc.和Quest Software是主要贡献者。
There are now about 141 leveraged loan issuers trading below 80 cents on the dollar, 35 more than a year earlier, with names including software providers CDK Global, QLIK Technologies Inc., and Quest Software among the biggest contributors.
根据报告，受困贷款最大的集中领域是科技行业，占比39%，总额达544亿美元。
The biggest concentration of distressed loans is in the technology sector at 39%, with a total of $54.4 billion, according to the report.
随着超过1000亿美元的到期债务迫在眉睫，软件公司面临日益严峻的再融资环境。由于担心人工智能的进步会颠覆提供软件服务的业务，该行业今年承压。
Software companies are facing an increasingly challenging refinancing environment as a wall of more than $100 billion of maturing debt is approaching. The sector came under pressure this year with concerns mounting that advances in artificial intelligence would disrupt businesses offering software services.
据摩根大通数据，在杠杆贷款市场风险最高的部分，CCC级贷款（垃圾级中最低档）的年内回报率下跌1.97%，而其他所有垃圾评级类别均录得涨幅。
In the riskiest part of the leveraged loan market, returns on CCC loans, the lowest tier of junk, are down 1.97% year-to-date, compared with gains in every other junk-rated category, according to JPMorgan.
在高收益债券受困端，CCC级债务的信用利差已升至1000个基点以上，为2023年区域性银行业危机（当时投资者抛售高风险债务）以来的最高水平。CCC级债券收益率攀升至15.58%，为2022年11月以来的最高点。
On the high-yield bond side of distress, spreads on debt rated CCC have jumped above 1,000 basis points, the highest since the 2023 regional banking crisis when investors dumped risky debt. Yields on CCC bonds have climbed to 15.58%, the highest since November 2022.
CCC级债券的信用利差近几个月来稳步上升，全球债券收益率飙升以及美联储转向紧缩政策，推高了债务偿付和再融资成本，给高杠杆借款人带来了额外压力，而此时正值大量债券和贷款到期之际。
CCC spreads have been rising steadily in recent months as soaring global bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s pivot to tighter policy added to pressure on highly levered borrowers by boosting debt service and refinancing costs just as a large chunk of bonds and loans comes due.
摩根大通策略师指出，今年以来受违约影响的高收益债券量已超越杠杆贷款，“这是自2020年以来首次出现这种情况”。该行预计，明年高收益债券和杠杆贷款的违约率均将上升，分别从2026年预计的2.25%升至2.75%和4.50%。
The JPMorgan strategists noted that the high-yield bond volume affected by defaults year-to-date is outpacing that of loans, “the first time this has occurred since 2020.”The bank expects both high-yield bond and leveraged loan default rates to rise next year from a projected 2.25% in 2026 to 2.75% and 4.50% respectively.