预测市场上“组合合约”的日益流行正推动成交量飙升，尽管它们在这些平台上的总活动中仍仅占很小一部分。
The growing popularity of a combo contracts on prediction markets is leading to soaring volumes, even as they makes up only a small amount of total activity on the platforms.
“组合合约”是将多个合约叠加在一起，且只有当所有合约都赢利时才会支付赔偿，类似于传统体育博彩中的“串关”玩法，其 popularity 爆发式增长。
Combos, or multiple contracts stacked together that only pay out if all of them win — similar to parlays on traditional sportsbooks — have exploded in popularity.
上个月，由于 NFL 赛季的开始，组合合约在 Kalshi 平台上占据了超过 50% 的名义交易量。这些组合合约主要由多种体育合约的组合构成。
Last month, combos accounted for more than 50% of notional volume on Kalshi, driven by the start of the NFL season. Combos are overwhelmingly made up of combinations of multiple sports contracts.
当 Polymarket 竞争对手今年扩展其美国交易所时，组合合约成为重中之重，尤其是在该国内平台于 5 月正式上线之后。得益于 NFL 赛季的增长，组合合约目前在 Polymarket 美国平台上占近 50% 的日交易量。
As rival Polymarket worked to expand its U.S. exchange this year, combos were a priority following the domestic platform's official launch in May. Combos are now nearly 50% of daily volume on Polymarket U.S., helped by growth during the NFL season.
但尽管组合合约占据了大量交易量，实际上它们并不是大多数预测市场的投机者完成交易的主要场所。这与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）对预测市场的监管要求有关，即要求交易所报告交易量的方式有关。
But while combos hold a large share of volume, they actually aren't where most speculators on prediction markets execute their trades. That's because of how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator overseeing prediction markets, requires exchanges to report volume.
MSR Decode 创始人兼研究员 Chris Park 表示：“多腿合约正在帮助 [Polymarket 和 Kalshi] 声称更高的交易量数字，但实际现金产出却更低。”
The multi-leg contracts are "helping [Polymarket and Kalshi] claim a higher number with lower realistic cash output," said Chris Park, a researcher and founder of MSR Decode, a research firm analyzing prediction market data.
当交易者在预测市场上进行交易时，无论他们下注的金额多少，平台都会将其计为 1 美元的名义交易量。所有事件合约的 outcome 都是二进制的，介于 0 美元到 1 美元之间，无论投机者为下注支付多少价格，有人总要承担另一方的订单并赚取 1 美元的总交易量。
When a trader places a trade on a prediction market, no matter the cash they put down, platforms measure it as $1 of notional volume. All event contracts have binary outcomes between $0 to $1, and no matter what price a speculator pays to place a trade, someone has to take the other side of that order and make $1 in total volume.
但组合合约的赔付可能远高于 1 美元，这意味着有人只需下注很少的钱，甚至是几分钱，就会被计为数千美元的交易量，这要归功于那些承担这些高赔付交易另一方的做市商。
But combos can have payouts that are much greater than $1, meaning someone can put very little money down, pennies in some cases, and it will be measured as potentially thousands of dollars in volume thanks to the market makers who take the other side of these high-payout trades.
CNBC对9月27日在Kalshi上的交易进行的分析显示了这一现象。对于单一合约，平均每笔交易所下的现金少于47美分。但对于组合合约，这一平均数约为9美分。
A CNBC analysis for trades on Kalshi on Sept. 27 showed this in practice. On single contracts, the average amount of cash placed on a trade was less than 47 cents. But on combo contracts, that average was about 9 cents.
同样地，根据Dune上的数据，虽然组合合约占据了Kalshi 9月份交易量的58%，但它们仅占该平台总交易量的不到13%。
Similarly, while combos comprised 58% of Kalshi's trading volume in September, they made up less than 13% of the total transactions on the platform, according to data on Dune.
除了体育赛事外，组合合约在Kalshi上占据了其他类别之外的名义交易量第一位，总交易量超过35%。组合合约的计量方式并非总是对公众清晰，但它们对总体成交量数字的影响可能会让人觉得平台增长速度比实际更快。
Other than sports, combos trump other categories for notional volume on Kalshi, with over 35% total volume Details on how combos are measured is not always clear to the public, but their effect on total headline volume numbers can make platforms look as though they're growing faster than they are.
预测性市场中与体育相关的事件合约日益流行，这对传统在线体育博彩公司造成了冲击，包括FanDuel母公司Flutter娱乐公司和DraftKings，它们的股票分别下跌了70%和45%，过去一年内。
The rising popularity of prediction markets' sports-related event contracts has hurt traditional online sportsbooks — including FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, and DraftKings — whose stocks have plunged 70% and 45%, respectively, over the past year.
但有些人指出，投资者可能会混淆那些并非完全可比的活动数据。"我曾与投资者交谈过，他们看到名义数值后会将其与体育博彩的句柄进行比较，然后得出这样的论点：你知道，这些预测性市场已经超过了体育博彩的规模，"伯恩斯坦的分析师伊安·穆尔说道。
But some note that investors may be confusing activity numbers that aren't exactly comparable. "I have spoken to investors who see the notional number and compare it to [the] handle in sports betting, and then make the argument that. you know, these prediction markets have already exceeded [the] scale of sports betting," said Ian Moore, an analyst at Bernstein.
体育博彩公司中的"句柄"衡量的是下注的总美元金额，而预测性市场则计算交易的双方。
A "handle" in a sportsbook measures the total dollar amount wagered, while prediction markets count both sides of a trade.
“当客户购买深度价外期权或组合合约时，预测市场的交易金额可能比体育博彩平台高出20至100倍。这是因为商品期货交易委员会的要求与体育博彩平台的报告方式存在差异，”正在向商品期货交易委员会申请监管许可的预测市场独立顾问里奇·杰伊科布斯说道。“本质上都是同样的投注、同样的逻辑，但外界对市场活跃度的认知却截然不同。”卡尔希公司则表示，其统计的名义交易量并未夸大实际活跃程度。“如果人们更关注其他指标，也可以参考其他数据，”该公司发言人杰克·苏奇解释道。
"When a client buys a deep out-of-the-money contract or a combo, prediction markets may have dollar volumes anywhere between 20 to 100 times greater than sportsbooks because CFTC reporting requires one thing and sportsbooks report the same activity differently," said Rich Jaycobs, an independent advisor to prediction markets seeking regulatory approval from the CFTC. "Same basic bet, same basic idea, but you're getting a completely different perception of activity." Kalshi said its notional volume doesn't overstate activity. "If people are more interested in other measurements, they can look at other metrics," said spokesperson Jack Such.
虽然名义交易量一直是预测市场的标准衡量指标，但也有观点认为以‘成交量’作为衡量标准更为准确。原因在于，‘成交方’是从做市商手中获取流动性而非提供流动性，因此这一指标能更真实地反映交易所的实际活跃程度。波利市场公司也认同这一观点。
While notional volume is the standard metric for prediction markets, some have suggested looking instead at taker volume as a better measurement. That's because "takers" scoop up liquidity from market makers, rather than provide it, and thus can be a better yardstick of where activity is on exchanges. Polymarket agrees with that approach.
“我们更倾向于以组合合约中‘看涨’方向的成交量作为衡量依据，”该公司营收与分析部门负责人凯尔·格苏埃利说道。这一指标能反映交易者对所有预设结果均会实现的投注需求。“对我们而言，这似乎是更精准地评估市场真实活跃度的方式。”
"We really like to look at taker volume in terms of buying yes on combos," said Kyle Gesuelli, the company's head of revenue and analytics. That measures trader demand for bets where the all the combined outcomes turn true. "That feels like a better measure for us to just truly understand the underlying activity."