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日本实际工资连续第八个月上涨,得益于高市早苗的纾困措施Japan Real Wages Rise for Eighth Month, Aided by Takaichi Relief

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际工资已连续八个月实现增长,这一增长势头为近十年来最长。与此同时,日本首相高市早苗正采取多项措施缓解通胀压力,以提升民众的购买力。

Japanese workers’ real wages rose for an eighth straight month, marking the longest streak of gains in almost a decade, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi deploys inflation-relief measures to boost households’ spending power.

日本厚生劳动省周三发布的数据显示,经剔除房租因素并扣除通胀影响后,8月份实际现金收入较去年同期增长了1.5%,这一数值与经济学家的预期相符。报告指出,这一增长主要得益于基本工资的稳步提升,当月基本工资涨幅达3.8%。

Real cash earnings — adjusted for inflation excluding rents — climbed 1.5% in August from a year earlier, the labor ministry reported Wednesday, matching economists’ forecast. The ministry said that the increase was underpinned by steady growth in base salaries, which rose 3.8%.

名义工资同样增长了3.8%,连续第七个月保持在3%以上,这一增长势头为1992年以来最长。若剔除奖金、加班费以及统计偏差等因素,全职员工的工资增幅则为2.8%。

Nominal wages also increased 3.8%, staying above 3% for a seventh month, the longest such run since 1992. A more stable gauge that strips out bonuses, overtime and sampling distortions rose 2.8% for full-time workers.

高市早苗推行的公用事业补贴政策有效抑制了通胀势头,8月份日本整体消费者物价指数涨幅维持在1.9%。在周一开启的新一届国会开幕致辞中,高市早苗着重强调了这些举措的成效,称其助力日本实现了七国集团中最低的通胀率。这一成果也促使日本的实际工资增速在七国集团中名列前茅。

Takaichi’s utility subsidies helped keep the pace of gains by the overall consumer price index at 1.9% in August. The premier touted her efforts during a policy speech Monday to mark the start of a new session of parliament, noting that price relief measures had helped give Japan the lowest inflation rate in the Group of Seven. That, in turn, is helping the nation’s real wages rise at the fastest pace among its peers.

目前,日本政府计划从4月起实施为期两年的政策:将食品类商品的销售税从8%下调至1%,以此进一步减轻民众负担。该议题也正在当前召开的特别国会上进行讨论。该政策的最终落地情况不仅将影响高市早苗的财政政策走向,还可能决定其民众支持率能否持续稳固。阅读:日本国会开幕,高市早苗的经济议程面临考验企业盈利状况良好,为薪资增长提供了支撑。

The government is now aiming to give households further relief by cutting the sales tax on food to 1% from 8% for two years starting in April, a key issue to be debated in the extraordinary diet session now underway. How the plan takes shape could affect Takaichi’s strategy for managing fiscal policy and determine whether her public support remains firm. Read: Takaichi Faces Test of Economic Agenda as Japan Parliament Opens Wage gains have been supported by healthy corporate earnings.

日本财务省上月发布的数据显示,受人工智能相关需求旺盛及日元汇率走弱推动,截至6月的季度内各行业经常利润均创下历史新高。与此同时,企业信心也保持坚挺——日本央行最新一期短观调查显示,大型制造业企业的信心指数已升至八年多以来的最高水平。

Ordinary profits across all industries hit a record in the quarter through June, buoyed by artificial intelligence-related demand and a weaker yen, Finance Ministry data showed last month. Business sentiment has also held up, with the Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey showing confidence among large manufacturers at its highest in more than eight years.

在劳动者即将开启新一轮年度薪资谈判之际,强劲的企业盈利与良好的商业信心无疑创造了有利环境。日本最大的工会联合会通常会在本月公布下个财政年度的薪资增长目标。在今年的谈判中,该联合会所代表的劳动者已连续第三年实现了超过5%的薪资涨幅。

Strong profits and improving business confidence provide a favorable backdrop as workers prepare to begin the next round of annual wage negotiations. Japan’s largest labor union federation typically announces its pay target for the coming fiscal year as early as this month. Workers represented by the group secured increases of more than 5% for a third straight year in this year’s round of talks.

持续的薪资增长也是日本央行加息的重要推动力。上个月,在三个月内第二次上调基准利率后,央行强调通胀率存在突破2%目标值的风险,暗示未来仍需进一步收紧货币政策。官方指出,企业日益积极的薪资与定价策略正是推高物价压力的重要因素之一。

Sustained wage growth has been a factor paving the way for the Bank of Japan’s interest-rate hikes. Last month, after hiking the benchmark rate for the second time in three months, the central bank signaled the need for further tightening by underscoring the risk of inflation overshooting its 2% target. Authorities cited increasingly proactive wage- and price-setting behavior among companies as one source of upward price pressure.

虽然多数经济学家预计日本央行会在10月30日结束的会议上维持现行政策不变,但截至东京时间周三上午,隔夜指数掉期市场显示,投资者预计今年年底前央行再度加息的概率高达76%。

While most economists expect the BOJ to hold its policy settings steady when the next board meeting concludes on Oct. 30, as of Wednesday morning in Tokyo overnight index swaps showed markets were pricing in a 76% probability of another rate hike by the end of the year.

日本的人口结构问题也是推动薪资上涨的关键因素。长期存在的劳动力短缺迫使企业不得不通过提高薪资来争夺人才;而部分无法将成本上升转嫁给消费者的企业则陷入了经营困境。

Japan’s demographic challenges have been a key factor driving wage momentum. Chronic labor shortages have forced companies to compete for talent by raising pay levels. Some companies unable to pass the higher input costs onto customers have struggled.

根据东京商工研究所在周一发布的报告,2026财年上半年,因劳动力短缺而破产的企业数量创下纪录,达到240家。该机构指出,其中超过一半的破产案例可归因于人力成本上升,这反映出小型企业正面临日益沉重的财务压力。

Bankruptcies caused by labor shortages rose to a record 240 in the first half of fiscal year 2026, according to a report Tokyo Shoko Research released Monday. More than half were attributed to rising personnel costs, underscoring mounting financial pressure on smaller businesses, the firm said.

目前尚不清楚薪资上涨是否会带动消费增长。私人消费依然疲软,截至7月,家庭支出已连续八个月出现下滑。

It remains unclear whether higher wages will translate into stronger spending. Private consumption remains fragile, with household spending falling for eight straight months through July.