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冰岛维持8%的关键利率不变,经济显现降温迹象Iceland Keeps Key Rate at 8% as Economy Shows Signs of Cooling

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据Ragnhildur Sigurdardottir报道,面对持续高企的通货膨胀,冰岛央行决定维持借贷成本不变,从而结束了为期七个月的加息周期。

Iceland’s central bank held borrowing costs steady, capping a seven-month tightening phase, as the economy dogged by persistent inflation shows signs of cooling.

周三,位于雷克雅未克的冰岛央行决策层一致决定将7天定期存款利率维持在8.0%的水平,这一决定符合冰岛最大两家银行Islandsbanki hf和Landsbankinn hf的预期。此前的三次议息会议上,央行均将利率上调了0.25个百分点。

Policymakers at Sedlabanki in Reykjavik unanimously kept the 7-day term deposit rate at 8.0% on Wednesday, in line with forecasts from Islandsbanki hf and Landsbankinn hf, among the nation’s largest lenders. The central bank had raised interest rates by a quarter point in each of the three prior meetings.

央行行长Asgeir Jonsson率领的官员团队在声明中指出:“虽然经济活动明显开始放缓,但目前的实际通胀率及潜在通胀率依然过高,通胀预期也同样居高不下。”

“Although economic activity has clearly begun to slow, both measured and underlying inflation are still too high, as are inflation expectations,” officials led by Governor Asgeir Jonsson said in a statement.

自2020年中以来,冰岛的物价涨幅一直超出央行设定的目标,今年更是突破了5%。近期的高通胀主要源于外部输入因素:全球油价上涨,加之上个月汽油增值税的临时减免政策到期,导致燃油税增加。不过,随着失业率上升、房地产市场降温以及刷卡消费增速放缓,国内物价压力已有所减轻。

Iceland’s price gains have exceeded the central bank’s target since mid-2020, with readings this year topping 5%. Recently, inflation has been largely imported, with increases in global oil prices exacerbated by a tax increase for petrol last month when a temporary lower rate on value added tax on gasoline expired. Still, domestic price pressure has eased with higher unemployment, cooling of the housing market and a slowdown of payment card turnover.

目前,工资走势仍存在不确定性。根据8月份订立的条款,当通胀率突破4.7%时,工会即可选择废除集体工资协议。因此,各工会必须在本周四前决定是否执行该条款。冰岛最大的工会组织VR及其他两个工会表示,若资方协会SA无法满足其诉求,便将废除协议;不过也有其他工会于周二晚间决定继续遵守原协议。冰岛政府也表态称,将通过减免公共费用等措施来协助协议的顺利执行。

Uncertainty about wage developments still persists. Unions face a deadline on Thursday to decide whether to abandon a collective wage agreement in line with a clause triggered in August when inflation exceeded 4.7%. Two labor unions, including Iceland’s biggest trade group, VR, are threatening to terminate the deal if the employers’ lobby, SA, won’t meet their demands. Other unions agreed to stick with the agreement late on Tuesday. The government has signaled it will aid the deal with measures which include lowering public fees.

央行官员最后总结道:“尽管劳动力市场和全球经济环境仍存在较大不确定性,但多数指标显示,2027年通胀率将出现较快幅度的回落。”

“Most indicators suggest that inflation will fall fairly rapidly in 2027,” officials at the central bank said, noting “considerable uncertainty” from both the labor market and the global economy.