飓风长期以来一直是提升电力系统抵御极端天气能力的主要挑战，但美国能源基础设施的建设正面临日益严重的强雷暴风险。
Hurricanes have long dominated efforts to make the power system more resilient to extreme weather But America's energy buildout is running into growing risks from severe thunderstorms. Why it matters:
为何重要：随着极端天气风险的变化，新的能源基础设施和数据中心正被建在危险区域，这意味着当风暴来袭时，开发商和保险公司可能面临更大的损失。
New energy infrastructure and data centers are being built in harm's way as severe weather risks shift leaving more for developers and insurers to lose when storms hit. Driving the news:
新闻背景：根据风险分析公司 Verisk 的分析，强雷暴占全球已投保灾难风险的 40%，而飓风仅占 27%。
Severe thunderstorms account for 40% of modeled global insured catastrophe risk, compared with 27% for hurricanes according to analysis from risk analytics firm Verisk.
- 在美国，Verisk 模型估算的全球已投保灾难损失中，有 1170 亿美元（即 68%）来自美国。
• The U.S. accounts for $117 billion, or 68%, of Verisk's modeled global insured catastrophe losses. Threat level:
威胁程度：更温暖的大气能够容纳更多水分，可能为强雷暴的形成创造更有利的条件。然而，气候变化对强风暴的影响十分复杂。
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially creating more favorable conditions for powerful thunderstorms. But the effects of climate change on severe storms are complicated.
- 美国国家海洋和大气管理局的研究科学家 Harold Brooks 告诉 Axios，随着全球变暖，形成强风暴所需的其他大气条件可能变得不再有利。
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research scientist Harold Brooks told Axios that other atmospheric conditions needed for severe storms may become less favorable as the planet warms.
现实情况： Verisk 的 Jay Guin 表示，与气候变化相比，风险暴露的增加才是已投保损失上升的主要驱动因素，因为越来越多且价值更高的资产被建在危险区域。
Reality check: Verisk's Jay Guin said growing exposure, more than climate change, is the dominant driver of rising insured losses, as more and increasingly valuable property is built in harm's way.
- Guin 指出，气候变化确实起到了一定作用，但开发活动的扩张和更高的重建成本才是更关键的因素。
• Guin says climate change contributes, but expanding development and higher reconstruction costs are much larger drivers.
深入分析：美国正在变化的能源系统正在创造新的风险类型。
Zoom in: America's changing energy system is creating new kinds of exposure.
- Verisk 正在评估龙卷风和冰雹多发地区可再生能源项目所面临的风险。Guin 表示，在这些地区，大冰雹可能对太阳能发电场造成严重破坏。
• Verisk is assessing risks to renewable projects in tornado- and hail-prone areas, where Guin said large hail can cause major damage to solar farms.
- “尽管这些是可再生能源项目，但它们代表了一种全新的、相当脆弱的资产类别，”他说。
• "While they are renewable, you have a new asset class that is quite vulnerable," he said.
- 数据中心开发商必须在自然灾害风险与土地、电力和水资源的可及性之间取得平衡。部分数据中心拥有价值数十亿美元的资产和硬件，这使得选址和工程设计变得至关重要。
• Data-center developers must balance natural-hazard exposure against access to land, power and water. Some sites have billions in property and hardware, raising the stakes for siting and engineering. State of play:
当前形势：布鲁克斯表示，中南部的龙卷风活动增加了约10%，而从德克萨斯州潘汉德尔地区到堪萨斯州西部的龙卷风活动则下降了大致相同的幅度。
Tornado activity has increased about 10% in the Mid-South while declining by roughly the same amount from the Texas Panhandle through western Kansas, Brooks said.
- 东南部农村地区的人口密度大约是高原地区的100倍。
• Population densities in rural areas of the Southeast are roughly 100 times those in the High Plains.
- “密西西比州北部和阿拉巴马州农村地区的人口密度为每平方公里10人，因此该地区的龙卷风不可能避开建筑物，也不可能避开人，”布鲁克斯说。
• "It's 10 people per square kilometer in rural areas of northern Mississippi and Alabama, and so a tornado in that area can't miss buildings and can't miss people," Brooks says.
就基础设施而言，布鲁克斯表示，与雷暴相关的最主要担忧是洪水。
For infrastructure, Brooks said the biggest thunderstorm-related concern is flooding.
- 他说，强降雨和洪水“对我们几乎所有的基础设施都构成了巨大威胁”。
• Heavy rain and flooding are "a huge threat to virtually all of our infrastructure," he said.
结论：“没有……安全的气候区域，”金说。
The bottom line: "There is no ... safe climate zone," Guin said.