预计秘鲁央行将于周三加息，这将是三年多以来的首次加息。目前该国通胀率仍高于目标水平，且强降雨可能推高食品价格。
Peru’s central bank is expected to lift interest rates Wednesday for the first time in more than three years as inflation remains above target and heavy rains may hit food prices.
在接受彭博社调查的13位分析师中，有9位预计由资深行长胡里奥·贝拉尔德领导的决策委员会会将利率上调0.25个百分点至4.5%；其余4位则认为利率将维持不变。
Nine of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the board, led by veteran Governor Julio Velarde, to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 4.5%. The other four forecast no change.
此次加息将是2023年1月以来的首次加息，也将终结持续两年的降息周期——在此期间关键利率累计下调了3.5个百分点。此次决策结果将于当地时间傍晚6点公布。
A hike would be the first since January 2023 and would interrupt a two-year easing cycle that has trimmed the key rate by 3.5 percentage points. The decision is scheduled for 6 p.m. local time.
秘鲁是拉丁美洲表现最优异的经济体之一，其货币汇率稳定，借贷成本及通胀率也在区域内主要经济体中处于较低水平。但过去七个月，该国通胀率始终高于央行设定的3%上限。9月份，受食品价格上涨及全球能源价格冲击影响，消费者物价指数涨幅达4.55%，创下2023年以来的最高水平。
Peru is one of Latin America’s top performing economies, with a stable currency and one of the lowest borrowing costs and inflation rates among its largest regional peers. But inflation has been above the 3% ceiling of the central bank’s target range for seven straight months. In September, consumer prices rose 4.55%, their fastest pace since 2023, as rising food costs add to the global energy shock.
贝拉尔德上月表示，加息方案已在考虑范围内，具体决策将主要取决于强厄尔尼诺现象带来的影响——预计该现象将在未来数月引发强降雨及洪涝灾害。他还将2026年的通胀预测值从3.8%上调至4.2%。
Velarde said last month that a rate hike was on the table, with any move largely depending on the impact of a stronger El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to bring heavy rains and floods in the coming months. He also raised his 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% from 3.8%.
此次加息正值美联储本月早些时候宣布加息之后，而美联储利率通常被视为新兴经济体的利率下限，因为其变动可能引发相关国家货币贬值。
The move would come just after the Federal Reserve raised rates earlier in the month., normally seen as a floor for emerging market economies due to the potential for devaluation of their currency.
自央行上次开会以来，受美元走强影响，秘鲁索尔汇率已下跌1.8%，创下6月以来的新低；不过其表现仍优于多数区域货币。
The Peruvian sol has weakened 1.8% since the central bank’s last meeting, hitting its lowest level since June as the US dollar strengthened. Still, it has performed better than most regional currencies.
秘鲁央行的年度通胀目标区间为1%至3%，并力求将实际通胀率维持在区间中值附近。决策层预计，随着各类临时性通胀压力逐步消退，2027年通胀率将重新回归目标区间。
While Peru’s central bank targets annual inflation of 1% to 3%, it prefers to be as close to the mid-point of the range as possible. Policymakers expect it to return to the target band in 2027 as temporary pressures fade.