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“我们必须反击”:内华达州最高官员为特朗普可能引发的选举混乱做准备‘We Have to Punch Back’: Top Nevada Official Prepares For Possible Election Havoc From Trump

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Cisco Aguilar认为,今年的选举日将与内华达州历史上任何一天都不同。他正严阵以待,准备应对移民执法官员突袭投票站、联邦执法部门试图没收选票,以及总统公开质疑该州选举结果的情况。

Cisco Aguilar believes this Election Day will be unlike any other in Nevada’s history. He is bracing for immigration agents to descend on polling locations, for federal law enforcement to move to seize ballots and for the President to openly dispute the state’s election results.

“如果本届政府选择挑战选举结果,是的,我们确实在为此做准备,”内华达州州长兼首席选举官员Aguilar在接受《时代》杂志采访时说。“我们知道这种可能性非常高。”今年大部分时间,Aguilar都在针对联邦政府可能于11月3日在该州采取的行动进行规划。在今年的中期选举中,内华达州并未成为全国政治讨论的焦点。虽然该州部分众议院选区的选举结果可能决定共和党能否守住众议院多数席位,但这里并没有像密歇根州或得克萨斯州那样备受关注的参议院竞选。

“If this administration chooses to challenge the elections, yes, we are preparing for it,” Aguilar, Nevada’s secretary of state and top election official, tells TIME. “We know it's a very high probability,” Aguilar has spent much of the year planning around what the federal government might do in his state on Nov. 3. Nevada hasn’t been a focus of the national political discussion during this year’s midterm elections. While some of its House races are among those that could decide whether Republicans hold on to the chamber, it doesn’t have a high profile Senate race like Michigan or Texas.

然而,内华达州历来都是一个摇摆州,在总统选举年总会引起两大政党的极大关注。2024年,特朗普以3个百分点的优势赢得了该州。Aguilar表示,内华达州是全美唯一一州今年收到了司法部七份与选举相关的传票。他还被告知,司法部正在对他本人展开调查。

Yet Nevada is a perennial swing state that draws intense interest from both parties in presidential election years. Trump won the state in 2024 by 3 percentage points. Nevada, Aguilar says, is the only state in the country to have received seven voter-related subpoenas from the Department of Justice this year. He has also been informed he is personally being investigated by the DOJ.

“我将其视为一种荣誉勋章,”Aguilar说。“我们每天都在遵守法律,并且正在法庭上证明这一点。我不确定你们会查出什么,但请继续你们的恐吓行动吧。”为应对联邦官员可能试图没收选票的情况,Aguilar的办公室已经准备了一份他称之为“填空式”的法律文件,内容经过充分研究和起草,只差原告、被告和管辖权尚未确定。他说,此举是为了让他的办公室能够在联邦特工出现在内华达州任何投票站时,“在几秒钟内”提起诉讼。

“I take it as a badge of honor,” Aguilar says. “We are following the law every single day. We are proving it in the courts. I'm not sure what you're going to find, but continue to do your intimidation attempts.”In anticipation of federal officials attempting to seize ballots, Aguilar’s office has prepared what he calls a "Mad Libs" legal filing that is fully researched and drafted. All that’s missing are the plaintiff, the defendant and the jurisdiction. The point, he says, is for his office to be able to file lawsuits “within seconds” if a federal agent shows up at a Nevada polling location.

在上个月接受《时代》杂志采访时,特朗普拒绝排除在中期选举前后宣布国家紧急状态、援引《叛乱法》或向投票站派遣美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)特工的可能性。“我既不排除任何可能性,也不肯定任何可能性。我们拭目以待,”他说。

In an interview with TIME last month, Trump declined to rule out declaring a national emergency or invoking the Insurrection Act around the midterms, or sending ICE agents to polling stations. "I don't rule anything out or in. We'll see," he said.

阿吉拉尔是一名律师兼体育管理领域的企业家,在2022年当选内华达州国务卿之前,他从未担任过公职。那一年,他击败了一名前共和党议员。该议员声称,内华达州在2020年总统选举中的选举人票被从特朗普手中窃取,尽管正式调查并未发现支持这一说法的任何证据。今年,他再次出现在选票上,竞选第二个四年任期,同时也在为捍卫内华达州各县选举结果的公正性做准备。

Aguilar, an attorney and an entrepreneur working in sports management, had never served in public office before being elected Nevada’s Secretary of State in 2022. That year, he defeated a former Republican lawmaker who claimed that Nevada's electoral votes in the 2020 presidential election were stolen from Trump, despite formal investigations finding no evidence to support that. He is on the ballot again this year, running for a second four-year term while also gearing up to defend the integrity of the election results in every Nevada county.

“我们会受到一些攻击,但我们不能倒下,”阿吉拉尔说。“我们必须继续保护内华达州。我们必须予以反击。”

“We're going to take some punches, but we can't fall,” Aguilar says. “We have to continue to protect Nevada. We have to punch back.”

一项针对选民欺诈的调查宣告失败。7月在对全国发表讲话时,特朗普总统声称已识别出约27.8万名非公民参与了联邦选举投票,其中仅内华达州就有1.6万人。然而,每当该州对此提出反驳时,这一数字都大幅减少。

A voter fraud investigation collapses During his address to the nation in July, President Trump claimed to have identified about 278,000 non-citizens who areed to vote in federal elections, 16,000 from Nevada alone. That number has shrunk dramatically every time the state has pushed back on it.

阿吉拉尔表示,自调查开始以来,他的办公室一直难以获得明确答复。白宫称,总统的指控基于美国国土安全部的“系统性外国人资格验证”(SAVE)数据库,该数据库最初的设计用途是核查某人是否有资格享受政府福利。

From the start of the investigation, Aguilar says his office has struggled to get clear answers. The White House has said that the President’s allegations were based on the Department of Homeland Security’s Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, or SAVE, database, which was originally designed to check whether or not someone was entitled to government benefits.

内华达州是拒绝将敏感选民信息上传至SAVE系统的州之一,原因是担心信息的准确性与数据隐私问题。(得克萨斯州和密苏里州的选举官员发现,他们曾通过SAVE系统错误地将数十名美国公民标记为非公民。)今年夏天,国土安全部部长马克韦恩·穆林威胁称,拒绝使用该部门数据库来识别选民名单中非公民身份的州和地方选举官员,可能会面临“监禁”的惩罚。

Nevada is among the states that has refused to upload sensitive voter information to SAVE over concerns over its accuracy and data privacy. (Election officials in Texas and Missouri discovered they had falsely marked dozens of U.S. citizens as noncitizens using SAVE.) Over the summer, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin threatened that state and local election officials who refuse to use the department’s database to identify noncitizens on their voter rolls could potentially face “prison time.”

几周后,阿吉拉尔办公室的几名成员与国土安全部官员进行了一次Zoom通话。根据《拉斯维加斯评论报》通过公开记录请求获得的通话录音,一名国土安全部官员难以证实自己提供的数据,并表示该部门尚未对认定为非公民的1.6万名内华达州选民进行“全面的人工核查”。经过进一步核查,该部门官员称,他们认为内华达州选民名单中的非公民人数已减少至185人,但并未提供这份姓名清单。

A few weeks later, members of Aguilar’s office found themselves on a Zoom call with DHS officials. During the call, which was obtained by The Las Vegas Review-Journal through a public record request, one DHS official struggled to substantiate their own numbers, saying that the department has not conducted “a full manual review” of the 16,000 Nevada voters it identified as non-citizens. Upon further review, department officials said they believed the list of noncitizens on Nevada’s voter rolls was down to 185, but didn’t have that list of names available.

在首次会议几周后,内华达州收到了阿吉拉尔所称的来自国土安全部的“不完整”数据集,其中列出了185名疑似非公民选民。阿吉拉尔表示,这185人全部都是美国公民。

Weeks after that initial meeting, Nevada received what Aguilar described as an “incomplete” dataset from DHS of the 185 suspect voters. Aguilar says every single one was a U.S. citizen.

“我们的记录表明他们均为公民。你们并未提供任何实质性证据来证明相反的情况,”内华达州副总检察长格雷格·D·奥特在致国土安全部的电子邮件回复中写道。

“Our records indicate that they were citizens. You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise,” Greg D. Ott, Nevada's deputy attorney general, wrote in an emailed response to DHS.

国土安全部发言人则在一份声明中反驳了这一说法,称这185名选民“仅仅是当时通话时已经过严格人工核查流程的一部分人。”发言人表示:“国土安全部正通过将近230万份选民名单缩小至仅15,903人与国土安全部记录中的外籍人士匹配,从而协助内华达州。我们正在为内华达州的公民提供服务。”

In a statement, a DHS spokesperson disputed the characterization, saying that the 185 voters “were simply a subset of individuals that had gone through a rigorous manual review process at that time of the call.”“DHS is assisting Nevada by narrowing their list of nearly 2.3 millioned voters to just 15,903 who match an alien in DHS records. DHS is providing a service to the citizens of Nevada,” the spokesperson said.

阿吉拉尔指出,在内华达州,明知自己没有投票资格却参与选举属于重罪。尽管他无法确定该州的选民登记名单中完全没有非公民,但他的办公室仍在等待美国国土安全部(DHS)提供更多信息,以便内华达州官员能够妥善分析这些数据。

Aguilar notes that it is a felony in Nevada for a person to vote in an election when they know they are ineligible. While he can’t say with certainty that there are zero non-citizen on the state’s voter roll, his office is still waiting on DHS to provide more information so Nevada officials can properly analyze the data.

“一个三年级的小学生在数学题中都需要展示更多的解题过程,而国土安全部在质疑美国公民的公民身份时,却连这点都做不到,”阿吉拉尔说。

“A third grader has to show more work in a math problem than DHS is having to show in challenging the citizenship of American citizens,” Aguilar says.

快速计票竞赛:内华达州的提前投票将于10月17日开始。阿吉拉尔的办公室已指示各投票站负责人为各种情况做好准备,并以冷静、务实的方式应对。

Race to count ballots quickly Early voting in Nevada starts on Oct. 17. Aguilar’s office has instructed polling location managers to prepare for every scenario and respond in a calm, pragmatic manner.

“我们不能因为反应过度或被动应对局势,而吓跑民众,让他们不敢前往投票站,”他说。

“We can't scare people away from the polls because of our over-response or being reactive to the situation,” he says.

在内华达州,每位登记选民都会自动收到一张邮寄选票,如果他们愿意,可以选择使用。自2022年以来,86%的内华达州居民在某个选举周期中曾使用过邮寄选票,这一比例在美国各州中名列前茅。

In Nevada, everyed voter automatically receives a mail ballot to use if they prefer. Since 2022, 86% of Nevadans have used mail-in ballots at some point in an election cycle, among the highest use rates in the country.

然而,人们对邮寄选票可靠性的担忧依然普遍,因为特朗普政府持续毫无证据地声称选举舞弊现象猖獗。“我们担心的是,邮寄投票中似乎存在大量——不是‘似乎’,而是确实存在大量作弊行为,”特朗普本周在内布拉斯加州竞选时说道。

Yet concerns over the reliability of mail-in ballots remain pervasive, as the Trump Administration continues to claim without evidence that voter fraud is rampant. "What we're concerned about is there seems to be a lot of—not seems to be, there is a lot of cheating in vote by mail," Trump said this week while campaigning in Nebraska.

距离选举日仅剩几周时间,阿吉拉尔向内华达州选民传达的信息很简单:制定好计划,不要让恐惧改变它。

With Election Day just a few weeks away, Aguilar’s message to Nevadan voters is simple: make a plan, and don’t let fear change it.

“如果你担心前往投票站,那就使用邮寄选票吧。在家里安全地完成投票,甚至可以在晚餐时和家人一起完成,”他说,同时也在鼓励人们亲自前往投票站进行投票。

“If you're concerned about going to a polling location, use your mail ballot. Do it in the safety of your home. Do it over dinner with the rest of your family,” he says, while also encouraging people to go to a polling location and vote in-person.

近年来,全美各地的选举官员都致力于提高选票存储和计票过程的透明度。内华达州开发了一套系统,让选民能够追踪自己的选票,无论他们是现场投票还是邮寄投票。此外,在特朗普等人试图质疑那些选举结果数日未定的投票过程中,阿吉拉尔正敦促各县尽快公布选举结果。

In recent years, election officials across the country have pushed to become more transparent about how ballots are stored and counted. Nevada has developed a system that lets voters track their ballot, whether cast in person or by mail. And amid efforts by Trump and others to cast doubt on elections in which the outcome of races remain undecided for days, Aguilar is pressing counties to report results as quickly as possible.

他说:“我们公布结果的时间越短,联邦政府就越没有机会制造可能扰乱选举流程的叙事。”

“The shorter the time we get results out, the less time the feds have an opportunity to create a narrative that could create chaos within the elections process,” he says.

迄今为止,法官们一直在抵制政府干预选举方式的企图。上周,一名联邦法官驳回了司法部针对佐治亚州提起的一起诉讼,该诉讼试图获取该州的选民信息。这是特朗普政府为组建完整选民名单而提起的30起诉讼中,第26起失败的案件。另一起由民权组织提起的诉讼,则试图阻止美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)的探员出现在投票站。

Thus far, judges are pushing back on the Administration's efforts to interfere with how elections are conducted. Last week, a federal judge tossed out a DOJ lawsuit to seek voter information from the state of Georgia, the 26th out of 30 lawsuits that the Trump administration has lost in its effort to assemble complete voting lists. Another lawsuit, brought by a civil rights organization, is seeking to prevent ICE agents from showing up in polling places.

但阿吉拉尔与其他几个州的选举官员一样,正努力做好万全准备,以应对任何可能发生的状况,包括一系列可能从投票结束就立即开始的长期法律纠纷。

But Aguilar, like election officials in several other states, is trying to be ready for anything, including a series of protracted legal fights that might start as soon as the polls close.

他说:“我们必须采取战略性的应对措施,因为我们要维护人们对选举流程和整个系统的信任。我们必须为此做好准备,这确实令人遗憾,因为我们不能掉以轻心。”

“We have to have a strategic response because we have to maintain confidence in the process and the system,” he says. “It is unfortunate that we have to prepare for this, because we can't take anything lightly.”