随着特朗普总统的支持率持续低迷，他面临的麻烦的根源会不会是过度曝光呢？
As President Trump’s approval ratings languish, could the root of his problem be overexposure?
反特朗普阵营和亲特朗普阵营都在寻找各种方法来解释他不断下滑的民调支持率。反对者希望将他的下滑归咎于他的政策；支持者则想把他的困境归咎于媒体偏见。然而，答案会不会是过度饱和——即他对介于这两个阵营之间的美国人来说曝光过度了呢？
Both the anti-Trump and the pro-Trump camps seize on ways to explain his falling poll numbers. Opponents wish to attribute his fall to his policies; supporters want to blame media bias for his ills. Instead, might the answer be oversaturation — that he has been over-exposed to the Americans who fall between these two camps?
全国民调显示，特朗普的工作支持率正在下降。根据RealClearPolitics网站的全国民调平均值，截至昨天，特朗普的支持率仅为38.5%，而在其各自第二任期的同一时间点，小布什的支持率为37.7%，贝拉克·奥巴马为43.3%。
National polling shows Trump’s job approval ratings are falling. According to RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, as of yesterday, Trump’s approval rating was just 38.5 percent, versus 37.7 percent for George W. Bush and 43.3 percent for Barack Obama at the same point in their second terms.
对于批评者的指责，特朗普在具体议题上的支持率确实滞后。然而在不到两年前，他在这些相同的议题上赢得了压倒性的胜利。选民选择了支持他，而且这是他三次竞选总统中得票最多的一次。这是对过去四年拜登-哈里斯政策的断然拒绝。
To his critics’ charge, Trump’s approval does lag on the issues. Yet less than two years ago, he won a resounding triumph on those same issues. Voters chose him, and they chose him by his biggest vote in his three presidential runs. It was a resounding rejection of the Biden-Harris policies of the previous four years.
对于支持者的说法：没错，主流媒体对特朗普的报道确实带有负面色彩。根据媒体研究中心（Media Research Center）对特朗普第二任期前100天的一项分析，媒体的报道有92%是负面的。与此同时，媒体对特朗普取得的任何积极成就都轻描淡写。
To his supporters’ claims: Yes, the establishment media report on Trump negatively. According to a Media Research Center analysis of the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, the media’s coverage was 92 percent negative. Simultaneously, the media downplay anything positive that Trump accomplishes.
是的，与伊朗的冲突仍在继续；是的，通货膨胀率已经连续五年多高于美联储的理想水平。是的，特朗普逮捕尼古拉斯·马杜罗以及他与委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛达成的协议对美国而言是胜利。但在这两个政治极化之间，是否还存在着某种贯穿其中的因素呢？
Yes, there is the ongoing conflict with Iran and yes, inflation is continuing its over five-year run above the Fed’s preferred level. Yes, Trump’s arrest of Nicolas Maduro and his deals with Venezuela and Greenland are wins for America. But is there something running between both political poles?
尽管特朗普正在他的第二个任期内，但非连续性的第二个任期在美国政坛实属罕见。他并未像布什或奥巴马那样，在任满六年。特朗普所拥有的、而奥巴马和布什都没有的是三次连续参选总统的经历——两次获胜，一次惜败。自84年前的富兰克林·D·罗斯福以来，再没有其他美国主要政党的政治家实现过这一成就。
Although Trump is in his second term, a nonconsecutive second term is a rarity in American politics. He has not had six consecutive years in office, as Bush or Obama had. What Trump does have, which neither Obama nor Bush did, is three consecutive runs for president — winning twice and narrowly losing once. No American politician has accomplished this feat on a major party ticket since Franklin D. Roosevelt, 84 years earlier.
这意味着，自2016年以来，特朗普一直站在美国国家政治舞台的前沿。而他的“三连冠”经历也带来了前所未有的严密 scrutiny。
This means Trump has been at the forefront of America’s national political stage since 2016. And his trifecta has brought with it an unimaginable level of scrutiny.
至少从罗斯福时代开始，美国总统就一直是全国性的头条新闻人物——日复一日。然而，当时的媒体却截然不同，媒体周期也是如此。那时的媒体并不像现在这样无处不在、无所不包，也不通过各种电子设备传播。罗斯福时代有广播、印刷媒体和电影新闻短片，而且新闻周期也有终点，与今天永不停歇的媒体节奏形成鲜明对比。
America’s president has been a national headline since at least Roosevelt — day in, and day out. Yet the press was different then. So, too, was the media cycle. It was not as pervasive and all consuming, nor was it coming in through a plethora of devices. Roosevelt had radio, print and movie newsreels. He also had a news cycle that ended, in contrast to today’s unceasing one.
当时的媒体远为有限，也更容易控制。当然，罗斯福也有自己的朋友和敌人，并且让各方都清楚这一点。在罗斯福第三次参选时，美国正濒临第二次世界大战；在他第三个任期内，美国一直处于战争状态；1944年他再次参选时也是如此。总体而言，美国的媒体对最高指挥官更为顺从，尤其是在重大危机时期。
The media was far more limited then and imminently more controllable. Yes, Roosevelt had his friends and foes and let each one know it. America was on the cusp of World War II in Roosevelt’s third run and at war throughout his third term and when he ran in 1944. America’s press was far more subservient to the commander in chief in general, particularly so in time of acute crisis.
如今，我们的媒体已不再具备这些特征。但即便撇开这一点不谈，还有一个问题：信息的泛滥。美国的媒体，即使并非刻意针对特朗普持负面态度，其内容也令人不堪重负。通过各种传播渠道，他们让我们彻底被信息淹没。
Our press is none of those things now. Yet even aside from this, there is an issue of inundation. America’s media, even when not deliberately negative, as they are with Trump, are overwhelming. Through their variety of entry points, they saturate us.
如果还有任何怀疑，不妨想象一位长期处于公众视野中的人物——不是沃霍尔所说的“15分钟名人”，而是真正长期、深度地沉浸在媒体环境中的公众人物。承认吧：除非你是绝对的粉丝，否则你早已对他感到厌倦。你巴不得再也不会听到关于他的任何消息，也再也不会看到他的照片。你已经受够了。然而，媒体却仍在不断报道他。
If there is any doubt, imagine a public figure who has been one for any duration — not Warhol’s 15 minutes, but a thorough and prolonged immersion in the media landscape. Admit it: Unless you are an absolute fan, you’re sick of him. You would happily never hear another word about him or see another picture. You’ve had your fill. But still, the media keeps presenting him.
在某种程度上，每个处于媒体聚光灯下的人都会经历这种情况，但特朗普把这推向了另一个高度。“特朗普饱和综合征”的假说认为，那些既不是死忠支持者也不是坚定反对者的人——也就是中间派——已经开始厌倦并选择疏远。
This happens to everyone in the media’s lens to some extent, but Trump takes this to another level. The Trump Saturation Syndrome hypothesis is that those who are not diehard supporters or opponents — those in between — have begun to check out.
对于这种状况，特朗普本人难辞其咎。没有人曾如此渴望媒体的关注，并被证明在吸引关注方面如此老道。在他进入政坛之前就是如此。一旦他获得了西奥多·罗斯福所说的“第一讲坛”（bully pulpit），这种现象更是进一步恶化扩散。
Trump is hardly blameless for his condition. No one has craved media attention so much or proved so adept at garnering it. This was true before he entered political life. Once he attained what Teddy Roosevelt called the “bully pulpit,” it only metastasized.
特朗普不停地发推特、对任何事情发表评论、出席每一个重大活动并举行例行记者会。没有哪一天他的名字不会登上各大媒体的头版头条；而且往往是多条醒目标题、一天数次。
Trump tweets incessantly, comments on everything, attends every major event and holds regular press conferences. There is not a day when he is not front page news on every outlet; it is often multiple headlines and multiple times a day.
在这种史无前例、持续时间达到历史之最的密集报道之后，大多数非阵营选民是否已经觉得够了？美国是否已经对特朗普达到了饱和状态，或者说，对任何总统都达到了这种状态？
In this wake of unprecedented coverage for a historically high duration, has the bulk of the nonaligned electorate simply said enough? Has America reached the saturation level with Trump, and perhaps, with any president?
毕竟，我们现在已经连续经历了三届“单任期”政府。而在一个时期以前，单任期政府在美国政治中极其罕见——在1936年至2016年之间，总共也只有两届。
After all, we have now had three consecutive one-term administrations. This after a period when one-term administrations were rarities in American politics — there were only two of them elected between 1936 and 2016.
也许没有任何政治人物能够承受美国总统职位以及我们严重分裂的党派政治气候所带来的那种强烈、持续不断——而且确实是过度党派化——的审视。
Maybe no politician can withstand the level of intense, uninterrupted — and yes, hyperpartisan — scrutiny that the American presidency and our divisively partisan political climate now entails.
J.T.杨（J.T. Young）是RealClear出版社近期出版的新书《空前攻击：大政府如何释放美国的社会主义左翼》（Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left）的作者。
J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left” from RealClear Publishing.