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法国超越德国成为欧洲企业困境最严重的市场France Tops Germany as Europe’s Most Distressed Corporate Market

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行人走过塞纳河上的一座人行天桥,巴黎埃菲尔铁塔尽收眼底。Pedestrian cross a footbridge over the River Seine, in view of the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

甚至在新一轮政治和经济动荡爆发之前,从某项指标来看,法国就已经成为欧洲陷入困境最深的企业市场。

Even before the latest bout of political and economic turmoil, by one measure France had become Europe’s most distressed corporate market.

根据韦尔-戈特沙尔与芒格律所(Weil Gotshal & Manges)的专属指标——韦尔欧洲困境指数(WEDI)的最新测算,法国共和国已经超越德国,成为欧洲陷入困境最深的市场。在截至8月底的三个月里,德国的商业情绪略有改善,而法国则几乎没有变化,这使得这个陷入困境的国家跃居榜首。

The French republic overtook Germany as Europe’s most distressed market, according to the latest reading of the Weil European Distress Index (WEDI), a proprietary gauge from Weil Gotshal & Manges. While business sentiment improved slightly in Germany during the three months through August, it was little changed in France, propelling the troubled nation to the top spot.

这些数据是在最新一轮政治动荡和法国政府借贷成本激增之前收集的,这意味着该指数可能尚未完全反映近期的恶化情况。

The data were collected before the latest bout of political unrest and surge in French government borrowing costs, meaning the index may not yet fully reflect the recent deterioration.

韦尔律所驻巴黎合伙人席琳·多梅热-莫兰(Céline Domenget-Morin)表示:“法国现在是WEDI指数中困境最深的市场。企业本身正在感受到这种压力,盈利能力承受着特有的紧张局势,而且企业也发现更难吸引投资。”尽管在截至8月的三个月里,法国的企业困境保持稳定,但该国在排名中占据新榜首的背景却是其政府面临的一系列担忧,包括随着债券收益率威胁到企业借贷成本上升而带来的财政债务紧缩。该国还一直受到学生骚乱的困扰。

“France is now the most distressed market in the WEDI,” Céline Domenget-Morin, Partner at Weil in Paris, said. “The pressure is being felt by businesses themselves, with profitability under particular strain and companies also finding it harder to attract investment.”While corporate distress in France held steady for the three months ending in August, the country’s new top slot in the rankings comes amid a host of concerns for its government, including a fiscal debt squeeze as bond yields threaten to push up corporate borrowing costs. The country has also been wracked by student unrest.

多梅热-莫兰说:“经济增长已经陷入停滞,失业率处于2020年以来的最高水平。对于本已承受财务压力的企业来说,容许环境变得更具挑战性的空间已经很小了。”更广泛地说,截至8月底的季度,整个欧洲的企业困境略有缓和,从5月份的2.8%降至2.7%,尽管它仍然高于长期平均水平。该指数采用的是在2月、5月、8月和11月底结束的季度报告周期,而不是日历季度。

“Growth has stalled and unemployment is at its highest level since 2020,” Domenget-Morin said. “For businesses already under financial pressure, there is little room for conditions to become more challenging.”More broadly, corporate distress across Europe eased slightly as ofthe quarter ended in August, falling to 2.7% from 2.8% in the May period though it remains above its long-term average. The index uses a quarterly reporting cycle ending in February, May, August and November, rather than calendar quarters.

该指标综合了欧洲超过3,750家上市公司的数据,对企业困境进行了广泛定义,涵盖了流动性与盈利能力下降、偿付能力风险上升、估值下滑、投资回报率降低等压力,同时也纳入了金融市场压力的相关指标。

The gauge, which is compiled with data from over 3,750 listed European companies, defines corporate distress broadly, capturing pressures including weaker liquidity and profitability, rising insolvency risk, falling valuations and lower returns on investment, alongside measures of financial-market stress.

Weil律师事务所合伙人兼公司重组业务联合负责人安德鲁·威尔金森(Andrew Wilkinson)表示,欧洲各地的违约率持续面临借贷成本上升、需求疲软以及利润空间压缩等多重挑战。

Default rates across Europe face an ongoing challenge from rising borrowing costs, combined with weak demand and squeezed margins, according to Andrew Wilkinson, a partner at Weil and co-head of the firm’s restructuring practice.

威尔金森说:“最新数据显示,企业应对地缘政治和经济动荡的第一波冲击,比许多人预期的要好。但韧性不应被误认为复苏。”在德国,企业信心的改善以及制造业和出口活动的增强,使欧洲最大经济体在该调查中的排名有所下降。英国企业的困境在本季度也有所缓解,但该国仍是欧洲困境最严重的第三大市场,融资成本仍在制约着复苏进程。

“The latest data suggests businesses have absorbed the first wave of geopolitical and economic disruption better than many expected,” Wilkinson said. “But resilience should not be mistaken for recovery.”For Germany, improving business confidence and stronger manufacturing and export activity enabled the largest economy in Europe to shed its top spot in the survey, Corporate distress among UK businesses also eased during the quarter, although the country remains Europe’s third-most distressed market and financing costs continue to constrain the recovery.

在整个欧洲,由于非必需消费支出不均衡,以及能源和融资成本上升,零售和消费品行业仍然是困境最严重的领域。欧洲旅游、休闲和酒店业的信贷压力也急剧上升,因为燃料、工资和能源成本的上涨压缩了利润空间,而地缘政治动荡则加剧了不确定性。

Across Europe, retail and consumer goods remain by far the most distressed sectors amid uneven discretionary spending and higher energy and financing costs. Credit stress in Europe’s travel, leisure and hospitality sector also rose sharply, as higher fuel, wage and energy costs squeezed margins and geopolitical disruption added to the uncertainty.