字号·· | 护眼
semafor

“充裕”真的消亡了吗?Is ‘abundance’ really dead?

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

克里·塔斯克/路透社Kerry Tasker/Reuters

新闻:那个被许多民主党人视为推动经济增长的“繁荣发展”运动,如今究竟怎么了?

The News Whatever happened to “abundance,” the pro-growth movement that many Democrats were going to hitch a ride on this election cycle?

民主党人确实接受了这一理念,只是很少直接提及“繁荣发展”这个词汇。

They did embrace its ideas.

在竞选广告以及摇摆选区的宣传中,民主党人强调自己“建造了更多经济适用房”“推行了多元化能源政策”,还“削减了官僚作风与繁文缛节”,却始终避而不谈“繁荣发展”。在各自选区,一些议员则谈论着他们正努力推动的许可改革法案以及已经获批的住房法案。

They just don’t use the “a-word” that much. In ads and across swing districts, Democrats are running on having “built more affordable housing,” supported “all-of-the-above energy,” and sliced through “bureaucracy and red tape” without mentioning “abundance” at all.

“资源开发关乎我们的生存大计,”前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉在一段竞选广告中说道,她提到自己顶住气候活动人士的压力,支持了阿拉斯加的威洛石油开采项目。今年,由于进步派活动人士指责主张通过适度放松管制来促进经济增长的“繁荣发展”运动试图让民主党偏离民粹主义路线,一些与地方民选官员合作的团体便依据民意调查结果,继续推行相关政策——这些政策恰恰契合了大多数候选人所倡导的“提升住房可负担性”理念。

Back home, some are talking about the permitting reform bill they’re trying to push through Congress, and the housing bill they already did. “Resource development is about our survival,” former Rep. Mary Peltola says in one of her ads, highlighting how she defied climate activists to support Alaska’s Willow oil-drilling project.

“当初那些批评‘富足主义’不过是昙花一现的观点,其实是那些担心这一理念影响力过大的人出于恶意而提出的论调,”“包容性富足”组织的创始人兼首席执行官德里克·考夫曼说道。“以我居住的纽约为例,州长凯西·霍楚尔与市长佐兰·马姆达尼正在修改城市新建项目的环境评估流程;马姆达尼还推行了被他称为‘COGE’的反官僚改革举措。”

This year, after progressive activists accused the loose “abundance” movement, which favors targeted deregulation to spur growth, of trying to steer Democrats away from populism, groups working with local electeds forged ahead armed with polling showing how their ideas fit into the “affordability” framework that most candidate were running on. “That early criticism of ‘abundance’ being a flash in the pan was a bad faith argument from people worried about what a powerful argument it was,” said Derek Kaufman, the founder and CEO of Inclusive Abundance.

考夫曼接着提到,在洛杉矶市长竞选活动中,“那些立场较为进步的候选人也大力倡导建设更多住房以降低房价。” 2025年,“富足主义”理念遭到了广泛批评。今年春季,在埃兹拉·克莱因与德里克·汤普森合著的《富足》一书登上《纽约时报》畅销书榜后,进步派人士便指责该理念是脱离民粹主义的危险倾向——而民粹主义恰恰是赢得选举的关键。

“I look at New York, where I live, where you have Gov. [Kathy] Hochul Mayor [Zohran] Mamdani changing environmental reviews for urban infill; you have Mamdani doing his version of DOGE, which he called COGE.”In the Los Angeles mayoral race, Kaufman continued, “the more progressive-coded candidate is all about building housing to bring down costs.”Know More The criticism of the “abundance” concept got a wide airing in 2025.

持怀疑态度的人还专门开展民意调查,试图证明“富足主义”毫无实际意义。今年春季,“Demand Progress”组织分别测试了反官僚主义的“富足主义”宣传信息与典型的“民粹主义”宣传信息,结果显示后者更受选民青睐。

Last spring, after Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s “Abundance” hit the New York Times bestseller list, progressives attacked it as a dangerous off-ramp from populism — which could actually win elections. Skeptics commissioned their own polls to argue that “abundance” was a dead end.

四个月后,“Groundwork Action”组织发布调研数据称,虽然“官僚体制臃肿”是部分选民所担忧的问题,但其受关注度远远低于其他民生议题;解决这一问题也并不能被视为应对住房负担能力问题的直接对策。在批评者看来,竞选活动中鲜少出现“富足主义”这一词汇便意味着该理念已遭遇挫败。而支持这一理念的人士则认为事实并非如此——实际上,进步派意识形态与“富足主义”倡导的理念之间从来就不存在非此即彼的选择关系。

Last spring, Demand Progress tested a version of an anti-bureaucracy “abundance” message against a “populist” message that saw the latter winning out. Four months later, Groundwork Action released data that found “excessive bureaucracy,” while a concern for some voters, “ranks far behind other concerns and tackling it does not strike voters as a direct response to the problem of affordability.”To critics, the absence of the word “abundance” on the campaign trail is a sign of victory.

“我在竞选时不会使用‘富足社会’这个词,”密歇根州民主党众议员克里斯滕·麦克唐纳·里维特说道,“但我总是强调:当人们觉得现行体制对他们不利时,这种感觉没错。事实也确实如此。造成这种情况的很大一部分原因在于我们构建的政府体系——那些初衷良好的政策反而产生了适得其反的效果。” 大卫认为,民主党人对下个月的选举充满信心,各派系之间关于谁能促成胜局的较量也早已开始。进步派人士则希望推动民主党在众议院赢得更多席位,从而在下一届国会中增强自身影响力。

Those sympathetic to the movement argue that’s not the case — and that there was never a binary choice at hand between progressive ideology and the ideas abundance advocates stand for. “I don’t use the word ‘abundance’ when I’m campaigning,” said Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Mich., “but I say all the time that when people think that the system is rigged against them, they’re right. It is. And a lot of the reason is what we’ve layered into government, where really well-intended ideas have the opposite effect.”David’s view Democrats are feeling very good about next month’s elections, and the jockeying is already underway about which faction made it happen.

那些批评“富足社会”理念的人当时试图在当下以及未来赢得舆论支持。他们看到的是一群技术从业者和自由派人士,而这些人正试图阻止他们所不希望发生的事:即政治倾向向左转、减少对财力雄厚捐助者的依赖。在他们看来,那些鼓吹“富足社会”的人把马姆达尼的胜利归功于自己,不过是些投机分子,企图剥夺民主社会主义者取得重大执政成果的机会。

Progressives hope to power a Democratic victory in the House that sees them pick up more seats — and influence — in the next Congress. When “abundance” critics went after the movement, they were trying to win the argument then as well as the argument of the future. They saw a coalition of techies and liberals who were trying to prevent what they wanted: A move to the left and away from deep-pocketed donors.

不过,即便“富足社会”这一理念已从民主党人的话语体系中淡出,非社会主义阵营仍产生了一定影响。汤普森成功促使马姆达尼认同部分“富足社会”理念,双方均认为:如果民众认为进步派政府受利益集团牵制而无法有所建树,那么左翼阵营便难以与新兴的右翼势力抗衡。这场争论仍在继续。

They view “abundists” taking credit for Mamdani’s victory as opportunists trying to deny democratic socialists a major governing success. But the non-socialists have made a modicum of impact, even if “abundance” has faded from Democrats’ lexicon. Thompson got Mamdani to agree with some of the “abundance” principles, and both agreed that the left can’t credibly compete with the new right if people believe progressive governments are tied down by interest groups and can’t build.

存在分歧的空间:大卫·西格尔领导的“诉求进步”组织曾委托开展首次针对“富足社会”理念的质疑性民意调查。他认为,“富足社会”运动实际上已经走向消亡。

The argument continues. Room for Disagreement David Segal, whose group Demand Progress commissioned the first abundance-skeptical poll, argued that the abundance movement is all but dead.

“先提出一个民粹主义的核心信息,然后再加几句关于分区或许可改革的内容,这不过是‘向丰裕主义者做做样子’而已,”他说。“这并不等于‘以丰裕为竞选纲领’。这样做当然没问题,但这根本就不是丰裕(™)在推出他们项目时所主张的内容。”值得注意的是,在《政治报》上,Riley Rogerson报道了众议院又召开了一场“丰裕”主题党团会议,试图寻找为更多大型项目提供资金的办法。

“Having a primary message that is populist and then having a couple of lines about zoning or permitting reform is ‘offering a sop to abundists,’” he said. “It’s not ‘running on abundance.’ And it’s totally fine to do that, but it’s just not what Abundance (™) was arguing for when they rolled out their project.”Notable In Politico, Riley Rogerson broke news of another “abundance”-pilled caucus in the House looking for a way to fund more big projects.