随着债券收益率徘徊在数十年来最高水平附近，一些投资专家称，“TINA”时代已经结束。
With bond yields hovering around the highest level seen in decades, some investing experts are saying the era of "TINA" is over.
在投资领域，TINA 是 “There is no alternative”（别无选择）的缩写，用来概括这样一种观点：在某些市场条件下，股票无疑是实现投资高额正回报的最佳方式。这一观点在 2007-2009 年熊市之后逐渐流行起来。当时，长期低利率削弱了投资者对低风险固定收益产品（如政府债券）的需求，而这些产品的收益率几乎可以忽略不计。
vesting terms, TINA stands for "There is no alternative," which is shorthand for the idea that, under certain market conditions, stocks are by far the best way to earn substantial positive returns on your investments. The idea gained traction in the years following the 2007-2009 bear market, when a period of prolonged, low interest rates dimmed investor demand for low-risk fixed income products, such as government bonds, which offered little in the way of yield.
“TINA 从来都不是一种投资策略，而是一种市场情绪，”南卡罗来纳州 Emerald Wealth 公司的创始人、认证财务规划师伊琳·奥尔森（Eileen Olson）表示。“在超过十年的时间里，接近零的利率迫使人们转向股票，因为其他投资几乎没有任何回报。”但如今的情况已有所不同。尽管投资者仍在持续涌入股市——标准普尔 500 指数于 10 月 6 日创下历史新高——但受通胀高企和货币政策收紧影响，美国国债收益率已经上升。
"TINA was never an investment strategy. It was a mood," says Eileen Olson, a certified financial planner and founder of Emerald Wealth, based in South Carolina. "For more than a decade, near-zero rates pushed people into stocks because nothing else paid." Things are a bit different now. Though investors continue to pile into stocks — the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Oct. 6 — Treasury yields have risen amid elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy.
周三，1 年期美国国债收益率达到 4.442%，10 年期国债收益率为 5.35%，均为 2002 年 4 月以来的最高水平。
On Wednesday, the yield on 1-year Treasury bill was 4.442%, and a 10-year T-note yielded 5.35%, the highest level since April 2002.
奥尔森补充道：“许多投资者尚未调整策略。过去 15 年让他们形成了‘股票是唯一选择’的思维定式。这就是近期偏见，也是投资中最代价高昂的习惯之一。”从长期来看，债券的平均回报通常低于股票。但政府债券也具有一些优势，例如波动性较低，以及在持有至到期时能够提供稳定且几乎有保障的收入。如今，即便是风险最低的债券，其利率也已与投资者在股票中（至少短期内）可能获得的回报相当。因此，金融专业人士认为，重新评估债券在个人投资组合中的角色已变得十分必要。
"Many investors haven't adjusted," Olson adds. "Because the last 15 years trained them to think stocks are the only game in town. That's recency bias, and it's one of the most expensive habits in investing." Over long periods, bonds have typically delivered lower average returns than stocks. But government bonds come with some advantages, such as lower volatility and stable, practically guaranteed income over the life of the bond if held to maturity. Now that even the lowest-risk bonds pay an interest rate that's competitive with what investors can earn — at least in the short term — in stocks, financial pros say it's worth re-examining whether they have a role in your portfolio.
股票与债券：问问自己，“这笔钱是做什么用的？”考虑投资可能带来的回报有助于确定你的资产配置，但专家也指出，你应充分结合自身财务目标和投资期限。Olson表示，在投资组合中实现不同资产的多元化，不仅是规避风险的一种方式，也是实现不同目标的手段。
Stocks vs. bonds: Ask yourself, 'what is this money for?' Considering the potential returns for an investment can help inform your asset allocation, but experts also say you should strongly consider your financial goals and time horizon. Diversification among different assets in your portfolio isn't just a way to hedge against risk, but also a way to meet different goals, Olson says.
“在问‘选股票还是债券？’之前，先问‘这笔钱是做什么用的？’”她说。“两年后买房所需的资金、五年后退休后的收入，以及二十年后孙辈的未来，这些资金都不应采用相同的方式进行投资。”对于希望在10年或更长时间后实现的目标，专家普遍认为，倾向于投资股票是合理的。尽管股市随时可能下跌——有时甚至急剧下跌——但将资金持续投资10年或更长时间，通常能让你承受短期的市场波动，并充分利用市场的长期上升趋势。
"Before asking 'stocks or bonds?', ask 'what is this money for?'" she says. "Money you need for a home in two years, retirement income in five, and your grandchildren's future in twenty shouldn't all be invested the same way." For goals you're looking to hit in 10 years or longer, experts generally say it makes sense to gravitate toward stocks. While the stock market can drop — sometimes precipitously — at any time, keeping your money invested for 10 years or longer typically allows you to withstand short-term downturns and take advantage of the market's long-term upward trajectory.
根据Hartford Funds的数据，从1937年到2025年，标准普尔500指数在超过98%的10年期区间内都实现了正回报。Fidelity数据显示，自1957年以来，其年均回报率约为10%。该经纪公司报告称，2016年至2025年底的10年期平均回报率接近15%。
The S&P 500 delivered positive returns in over 98% of 10-year periods from 1937 through 2025, according to Hartford Funds. Annual returns have averaged around 10% since 1957, per Fidelity. The average 10-year return was nearly 15% between 2016 and the end of 2025, the brokerage reports.
马萨诸塞州执业的认证财务规划师（CFP）兼Parkmount Financial Partners所有者Joseph Boughan表示：“对于投资时间少于10年的投资者而言，投资期限每缩短一年，在此期间出现负回报的可能性就越大。”
"For investors with less time than that, the probability of a negative return over that period is more likely each year it is shorter than 10 years," says Joseph Boughan, a Massachusetts-based CFP and owner of Parkmount Financial Partners.
如果你有中期目标，比如五年后的目标，专家建议考虑与你的投资期限相匹配的到期日的美国国债。美国国债由政府背书，因此几乎不存在违约风险。这意味着，如果将债券持有至到期，投资者目前从5年期国债中获得的每年超过5%的收益率，在未来五年内几乎可以得到保障。专家称，如果你打算买房，这一点尤其重要。投资债券意味着你可以在储蓄中获得额外收益，而无需担心股市两位数下跌会侵蚀你的首付款。
If you have an intermediate-term goal, say, one five years out, experts say to consider a Treasury note with a maturity that matches your time horizon. Treasurys are backed by the government, so they come with virtually no risk of default. That means that the more than 5% per year investors currently earn on a 5-year Treasury is all but guaranteed for the next half decade if you hold the bond to maturity. That's a big deal if you're looking to buy a home, for example, experts say. Investing in bonds means that you can earn some extra money on your savings without the fear that a double-digit decline in the stock market could wipe out a chunk of your down payment.
如果你正在为短期目标存钱，并且需要很快动用这笔资金，那么除了股票和债券之外，还有另一种选择：现金。根据Bankrate的数据，在多年几乎零利率之后，如今已能找到年收益率超过4.25%的高收益储蓄账户。
And if you're stashing cash for a short-term goal, and need access to it soon — there's yet another alternative to both stocks and bonds: cash. After years of paying practically nothing, high-yield savings accounts can be found with annual percentage yields north of 4.25%, according to Bankrate.
“多年来首次，投资者现在可以通过持有近期所需的资金（以现金或债券形式）获得不错的回报，”奥尔森说。“他们可以让股票完成长期投资的任务，而无需在股市下跌时卖出股票来支付账单。”无论你的财务目标是什么，通常都不建议基于暂时性的情况做出可能影响长期财务计划的投资决策。与财务顾问合作，帮助你在经济环境发生变化时做出决策，有助于你制定符合个人财务状况的合理计划。
"For the first time in years, investors can be paid well to hold the money they'll need soon [in cash or bonds]," Olson says. "They can let stocks do the long-term work without having to sell them in a downturn to pay the bills." Regardless of your money goals, it's typically ill-advised to make investing decisions that could impact your long-term financial plan based on temporary conditions. Working with a financial advisor to help you navigate a change in the economic environment can help you make decisions that make sense for your personal financial situation.