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英国目睹特朗普轰炸机调动,此举提振了伊朗和俄罗斯UK Sees Trump’s Bomber Jets Move Boosting Iran and Russia

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一架B-1“枪骑兵”轰炸机于10月4日从英国皇家空军费尔福德基地起飞。摄影师:David Bown/Getty ImagesA B-1 Lancer bomber flies out of RAF Fairford on Oct. 4. Photographer: David Bown/Getty Images

现任及前任英国官员表示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普以恐怖威胁为由,决定将美国B-1B轰炸机从英国空军基地撤离,此举可能会助长伊朗和俄罗斯利用代理人实施破坏活动的胆量。

Donald Trump’s decision to move US B-1B bombers from a UK airbase citing terror threats may embolden Iran and Russia’s use of proxies to carry out sabotage attacks, according to current and former British officials.

这些官员在匿名接受采访时指出,尽管英国强调任何关于美国军事装备的决定都属于华盛顿的权限范围,但英国担心敌对国家会因此产生信心,认为它们可以通过雇佣本地犯罪代理人这一相对低廉的成本,迫使西方改变防御部署,并扰乱其敌人的稳定。

While stressing any decision about American military hardware is for Washington, the UK is concerned that hostile states will take confidence that they can force changes to Western defense arrangements and destabilize their enemies for the relatively small cost of hiring local criminal proxies, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity about sensitive matters.

这些担忧也暗示了伯纳姆领导的新成立的英国政府与特朗普政府之间已出现初步紧张关系。此前,特朗普称这些飞机“并非意外”从英格兰西部的雷福福德空军基地起飞,并暗示它们是被转移,而非为了“引诱敌人”。

Those concerns hint at nascent tensions between Burnham’s weeks-old UK government and Trump’s administration after the president said the aircraft “didn’t fly out by accident” from RAF Fairford in western England, and suggested they had been moved away rather than “tempt the enemy.”

英国政府拒绝发表评论。一位美国政府高级官员表示,美国始终出于高度谨慎行事,其军队也具备充分能力应对伊朗可能构成的任何威胁。美国战争部一位官员称,美国将继续评估其使用基地周边的威胁,并“采取适当措施保护我们的人民”。这些飞机是在针对该基地的一起阴谋事件后撤离的,英国首相安迪·伯纳姆表示,伊朗很可能参与了该事件。此次事件已导致多人因涉嫌策划恐怖活动而被捕,不过其中许多人后来在严格限制下被保释,调查人员强调,他们目前对事件真相仍持开放态度。

The UK government declined to comment. A senior administration official said the US always acts out of an abundance of caution, and that its forces are well equipped to meet any potential threat posed by Iran. A War Department official said the US would continue to asses threats around bases it uses and “take appropriate actions to protect our people.”The planes were flown out in the wake of a plot against the base in which Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said it is likely Iran was involved. It’s resulted in the arrest of a number of men on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts, though many of have since been released on bail under tight restrictions, with investigators stressing they are keeping an open mind about what happened.

由于战争爆发,伊朗针对英国皇家空军费尔福德基地的威胁有所增加。美国一直将该基地用作其中东部分行动的出发点。副总统JD·万斯本周对记者表示,这些飞机被转移是“出于极度的谨慎,以保护我们的士兵”,这与特朗普此前称转移飞机是为了降低风险的言论相呼应。尽管如此,英国国防官员仍坚信该基地安全性极高,并且所有潜在威胁都在密切监控之中。他们认为这些威胁确实严重,但成功发动袭击的风险较低。

Threats from Iran against RAF Fairford, which the US has used as a launchpad for some of its operations in the Middle East, have risen as a result of the war. Echoing Trump’s remarks that the planes had been removed to lower the risks, Vice President JD Vance told reporters this week that they’d been shifted “out of an abundance of caution, trying to protect our guys.”Nevertheless, British defense officials are confident the base is highly secure and that the full range of threats is being closely monitored. They consider the threats serious but the risk of a successful attack low.

熟悉此事的人士称,在该事件发生之前,基地的警卫巡逻已经加强,并部署了更多监控设备,包括反无人机系统。他们指出,虽然无人机可能是针对该基地的多种威胁之一,其他威胁还包括各种形式的破坏行动,但这并不意味着袭击成功突破基地多重安保层级的可能性很高。

Guard patrols had been increased before the incident, with more surveillance including counter-drone equipment put in place, people familiar with the matter said. While drones may be one of a number of different threats to the base along with other forms of sabotage, that doesn’t mean there is a high chance of an attack successfully breaching the base’s multiple layers of security, they said.

熟悉相关对话的人士表示,自美国决定转移轰炸机以来,其他设有英国基地的国家军事官员已联系英国方面,询问此举是否增加了其本国面临的风险,并得到了基地防御严密的确切保证。

Military officials from other nations which host UK bases have contacted British counterparts since the US decision to move its bombers to ask if the risk to their own countries had increased, and had to be reassured that the bases were well-defended, people familiar with the conversations said.

9月27日事件发生后,费尔福德皇家空军基地入口处的情景。The RAF Fairford base entrance following the incident on Sept. 27.

一些美国官员曾推测,伊朗可能试图效仿乌克兰去年成功摧毁多架俄罗斯轰炸机的著名无人机袭击行动——即“蜘蛛网行动”。但英国现任及前任官员均认为,类似袭击成功实施的可能性很低。

While some US officials have speculated that Iran could have been seeking to emulate Ukraine’s spectacular drone attack that successfully destroyed a number of Russian bombers last year, known as Operation Spiderweb, current and former UK officials disputed the likelihood of such an attack being pulled off.

无人机咨询公司Tarentum Consulting的Faine Greenwood表示:“人们严重低估了执行任何小型无人机行动所需的复杂环节和庞大后勤支持,更不用说像‘蜘蛛网行动’那样的大规模行动了。”

“People grossly underestimate how many moving parts and how much complex logistics are involved in doing any kind of small drone ops, much less something like Spiderweb,” said Faine Greenwood of drone consultancy Tarentum Consulting.

据基地内部人士称,美国与英国之间关于为何撤回轰炸机的沟通十分有限,导致一些英国高级官员对此次快速重新部署感到困惑。他们补充说,美国对其装备所面临威胁的容忍度极低。

Communication between the US and the UK about why the bombers were withdrawn was limited and left some senior UK officials confused about the rapid redeployment, other people familiar with the situation at the base said. The US has a low risk tolerance for threats against its kit, they added.

“无论美国此次撤军出于何种动机或原因,其传达的信息和处理方式至少模棱两可,最坏的情况下,则对英美关系以及英国基地相对安全性的认知造成了严重损害,”英国皇家空军前高级指挥官、现任英国空中与太空力量协会主席的格雷格·巴格韦尔表示。“这掩盖了英美两国在管理并针对此类威胁采取行动时,共享情报方面的实际协作程度。”

“Whatever the motivation or reason for the US withdrawal, its messaging and handling has been at best ambiguous, and at worst very damaging to both the relationship and the perceptions of relative security of UK bases,” said Greg Bagwell, a former RAF senior commander who is now president of the UK Air and Space Power Association. “It belies the actual truth about how joined up the UK and US are in managing and actioning shared intelligence on such threats.”

围绕费尔福德事件的另一处困惑点在于,调查人员尽管依据反恐法逮捕了嫌疑人,却仍决定保释他们,而伯纳姆也公开表示,伊朗很可能是幕后黑手。特朗普批评了这一举动,称他绝不会允许这些人被释放。

Another source of confusion surrounding the incident at Fairford has been investigators’ decision to bail the suspects despite their arrests under terror laws and Burnham’s public comments that Iran was likely behind it. Trump criticized that move, saying he wouldn’t have let them go.

英国官员强调,这些男子仅在极为严格的保释条件下获释,并且仍在接受调查。他们表示,这一点让他们相信这些嫌疑人目前并未构成持续威胁。

British officials stressed that the men had only been released under the tightest of bail conditions and that they remain under investigation. That gave them confidence that there is no ongoing threat from these suspects, they said.

情报委员会民主党最高职位的参议员马克·沃纳也批评特朗普政府此举在舆论上助长了伊朗。

Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, also criticized the Trump administration for giving Iran a rhetorical boost.

“我们必须首先保护我方人员,但这种仓促撤离至少给了伊朗一个宣传上的胜利——他们可以声称:‘看,我们迫使美国人从他们最亲密的盟友英国手中,撤离了英国空军基地,’”沃纳在接受彭博电视台采访时说。

“We have to protect our personnel first and foremost, but this kind of hurried exit at least gives Iran a propaganda win that they can claim hey, we chased the Americans out of their closest ally, the British, away from the UK airbase,” Warner said in a Bloomberg TV interview.