（请参阅上方视频，查看托德对图表的完整解析。）俗话说，板块轮动是牛市的命脉。然而，随着标普500指数本周创下历史新高，今年似乎并非如此。今年迄今，只有两个板块值得关注：能源板块（上涨47%）和科技板块（上涨39%）。标普500指数上涨了14.65%。构成美国经济的其余九个板块表现平平（这是我在萨拉托加泉常听到的赛马比喻），其年初至今的回报率均低于标普500指数。
(See the video above for Todd's full chart breakdown.) The old saying goes that rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. With the S & P 500 making all-time highs this week, that just doesn't seem to be the case this year. Only two sectors matter so far this year: energy (up 47%) and technology (up 39%). The S & P 500 is up 14.65%. The other nine sectors that make up the American economy are also "also-rans," (horse-racing analogy often heard here in Saratoga Springs), below the YTD % return of the S & P 500 As I get ready to rebalance and reallocate our portfolios, we have to decide whether energy keeps the lead or whether lower inflation expectation and easing geopolitical pressure take the edge off energy and put technology back in front by year-end?
在准备重新平衡和配置投资组合时，我们必须决定：是能源板块继续领跑，还是通胀预期下降和地缘政治压力缓解会削弱能源板块的优势，让科技板块在年底前重新占据领先地位？我寻求获取能源敞口的方式之一是关注南美洲。在巴西10月4日的总统选举中，参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗以47%的得票率领先于现任总统的45%，出人意料地击败了民调预测。
One way I'm looking to get energy exposure is in South America. In Brazil's October 4th presidential election, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47% of the vote to the incumbent's 45%, and upset the polls.
次日，巴西伊博维斯帕指数飙升7.7%，创下历史新高；iShares MSCI巴西ETF（EWZ）以美元计上涨12.6%。我不禁要问，巴西是否正在经历其“阿根廷时刻”。自哈维尔·米莱于2023年11月当选阿根廷总统以来，Global X MSCI阿根廷ETF（ARGT）已上涨198%。在同一时间段内，EWZ上涨98%，标普500指数上涨91%。
The Ibovespa jumped 7.7% to a record the next day, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rose 12.6% in dollar terms. I can't help but ask whether Brazil is having its Argentina moment. Since Javier Milei was elected Argentina's president in November 2023, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) is up 198%.Same stretch: EWZ is up 98%, and the S & P is up 91%.
第二轮投票定于10月25日举行，由于两方仅相差2个百分点，胜负尚未分晓。我不预测赢家，但市场显然正在重新评估巴西的政治风险。如果这种趋势持续，巴西可能像阿根廷一样拥有上涨空间。我的参与方式是投资巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras，代码：PBR），这是一家巴西国家控制的综合性石油巨头。它负责开采、炼油和销售燃料。
The runoff is October 25th and with a 2-point gap it isn't decided. I'm not picking a winner, but the market is clearly repricing Brazil's political risk, and if that continues, Brazil could have room to do what Argentina did. My way to play it is Petrobras (PBR) , Brazil's state-controlled integrated oil major. It pumps the oil, refines it, and sells the fuel.
选举结果推动了股价，但石油本身才是我持有该股票的原因。其旗舰油田布西奥斯（Busios）是全球最大的超深水油田，位于远海厚厚的盐层之下。巴西国家石油公司主要从这一盐下层开采中质甜原油。
The election moved the stock, but the barrels are why I'd stay with it. Its flagship field, Busios, is the largest ultra-deepwater oil field in the world, sitting under a thick layer of salt far offshore. Petrobras pumps mostly medium-sweet crude from this pre-salt layer.
这种原油的硫含量较低，因此炼油厂可以以更低的成本将其转化为清洁柴油和低硫船用燃料。这种原油的价格以全球基准布伦特原油为参考，因此布伦特原油价格维持在100美元左右，这一水平也传导到了生产端。在炼油方面，我正在关注柴油裂解价差，即柴油售价与原油成本之间的差额。该价差仍处于高位，而巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）的炼油厂正在以创纪录的负荷运行，这意味着其拥有两个同时运转的引擎。
It's low in sulfur, so refiners can turn it into clean diesel and low-sulfur shipping fuel more cheaply. That crude is priced off Brent, the global benchmark, so Brent holding around $100 flows through to the production side. On the refining side, I'm watching the diesel crack spread, the margin between what diesel sells for and what crude costs. It remains elevated, and Petrobras is running its refineries at record levels, so it has two engines working at once.
从技术面来看，PBR的周线图突破了约20.50至22美元的阻力位，最新交易价格为23.73美元。如果这一曾经的阻力位现在能够转化为支撑位——这是非常典型的价格行为——那么PBR股价可能会进一步上涨。该股目前股息率约为5%，且仅以未来收益的4倍市盈率交易，并不算昂贵。我们Inside Edge团队即将进行投资组合的再平衡与重新配置，我准备在股息与增长投资组合中增加2%的PBR配置。
On the technicals, PBR's weekly chart broke through the resistance of about $20.50 to $22, with a last trade of $23.73. If that old resistance now acts as support, which is very typical price action behavior, PBR could move higher. The stock yields about 5%, and it trades at just 4X's forward earnings, It's not expensive. We're just about set to rebalance and reallocate our portfolios here at Inside Edge, and I'm geared up to add a 2% allocation to PBR in our dividend and growth portfolio.
这使我们能够布局一体化石油资产，更重要的是，让我们能够参与与柴油裂解价差相关的炼油和营销环节，而今年这一价差走势非常有利。正如我们在其他CNBC Pro专栏文章中讨论过的，与裂解价差关联最紧密的下游炼油商和营销商今年实现了最大的涨幅。这是一种具有地缘政治催化因素的国际化布局方式，有助于进一步增加相关敞口。
It gives us integrated oil exposure, more importantly, a stake in the refining and marketing side tied to the diesel crack spread, which has been very much in favor this year. As we've talked about in other CNBC Pro column articles, the downstream refiners and marketers most tied to the crack spread have seen the biggest gains this year. This is an international way with a geopolitical kicker bid to get more exposure.
Todd Gordon是Inside Edge Capital的创始人。披露信息：Gordon个人以及Inside Edge Capital, LLC均持有PBR股份。所显示图表来自Koyfin。CNBC Pro专栏作者表达的所有观点均为其个人意见，不代表CNBC、其母公司或关联公司的观点，且可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒介上发布过。本内容仅用于信息参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，也不构成购买任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。
Todd Gordon is the Founder of Inside Edge Capital. DISCLOSURES: Gordon owns PBR personally and with Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Charts shown are Koyfin. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET.
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