吉隆坡：在九月的短短一周内，马来西亚统一马来民族组织（UMNO）看似正在上升的政治运势，却因两件独立事件而急转直下。其中一件事件给了该党一把双刃剑，另一件则使其新赢得的州政府陷入了公开的宪法冲突。
KUALA LUMPUR: Within a single September week, the seeming rise in political fortunes of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) was whipsawed by two separate developments. One handed the party what would become a double-edged sword and another has plunged its newly-won state government into open constitutional warfare.
但让我们先稍作回顾，因为理解UMNO如今所面临的这种剧烈转折的背景至关重要。
But let’s step back a bit, because understanding the context of this whipsaw UMNO is now faced with is important.
就在几周前，UMNO及其领导的国民阵线（BN）联盟似乎正乘着真正复兴的浪潮。该党于7月在大选中以压倒性优势保住了柔佛州政府的控制权，随后又在8月夺回了此前由总理安瓦尔·易卜拉欣领导的希望联盟（PH）所控制的森美兰州政府。
Just weeks earlier, UMNO and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that it leads appeared to be riding the wave of a genuine revival. It retained control of the Johor state government in July in a landslide electoral victory, before recapturing in August the Negeri Sembilan state government that was previously controlled by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.
UMNO满怀信心地进入了政治年的第四季度。9月9日开始的为期三天的党内大会将这一势头推向高潮，其领导人宣称，代表UMNO和BN的所谓“蓝色浪潮”，在马来人这一政治主导群体的支持下，已准备好席卷全国。
UMNO was entering the fourth quarter of the political year with confidence. It was capped at the party's three-day congress that began on Sep 9 with its leaders claiming that the so-called “Blue Wave”, the colour shorthand for both UMNO and BN, was ready to sweep the country with the backing of the country's politically dominant Malays.
其主席艾哈迈德·扎希德·哈米迪——同时也是安瓦尔总理联合政府中的两位副总理之一——甚至呼吁提前举行大选，而原定的大选时间本应在2028年初。
Its president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also one of the two deputy prime ministers in Mr Anwar's Unity Government, even called for an early general election which is only due sometime in early 2028.
当右翼伊斯兰党（PAS）的代表们出现在大会上，并受到UMNO领导人的热情接待时，这一复兴故事更显得戏剧性十足。这标志着马来人团结新协议的大门再次敞开。然而，九月的突发事件接踵而至。
The revival story struck an even more dramatic note when delegates from the right-wing Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) turned up at the assembly and were warmly greeted by UMNO leaders, signalling that the door to a new Malay-unity pact had swung open again. Then the events of September struck.
首先是9月18日，由马来西亚国王主持的赦免委员会决定，对被监禁的前总理纳吉布·拉扎克实施有条件的居家监禁。但这一决定附带条件：他必须全额支付5000万林吉特（约合1220万美元）的罚款。对此，UMNO立即发起了一场基层筹款活动。
First came the decision on Sep 18 by the Pardons Board, headed by Malaysia’s king, to grant jailed former prime minister Najib Razak conditional house arrest This is contingent on the full settlement of a RM50 million fine (US$12.2 million) for which the party immediately launched a grassroots fundraising drive.
两天后，州统治者兼雪兰莪皇家家族首领图安库·穆赫里兹·图安库·穆纳维尔解除了由巫统和国阵领导的新州政府中10名州执行议员的职务。在这10名被解职的议员中，有7人来自巫统。
Two days later, Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir, the state ruler and head of the Negeri Sembilan royal household, sacked 10 state executive councillors of a brand-new state government headed by UMNO and BN. Among the 10 who were sacked, seven were from UMNO.
这些解职行动于9月24日在短短几天内通过官方公报公布，理由是他们在该党州级分支参与发起罢免州统治者的运动后，违反了忠诚誓言。巫统面临的这两起事件看似无关。
The sackings, gazetted in a matter of days on Sep 24, were on grounds that they breached their oath of loyalty after the party’s state chapter participated in a campaign to remove the state ruler. The twin developments for UMNO may appear unrelated.
但实际上，对于这个在2018年大选前执政超过60年、随后被赶下台的政党而言，这两起事件却以一种令人尴尬的方式相互强化。
But they in fact reinforce each other awkwardly for the party that led the government for more than 60 years before being ejected from power in the 2018 general election.
巫统长期以来将自己定位为君主制的守护者和捍卫者，并经常利用这一立场在马来人占多数的选区争取选票。然而，对纳吉布的赦免以及该党在雪兰莪州的行动——既受益于某项皇家特权，又抵制另一项特权——引发了人们对它在政治利益受到挑战时立场一致性的质疑。
UMNO has long positioned itself as the custodian and defender of the monarchy, a stance it has often leveraged to secure votes in Malay-majority seats. However, the pardon granted to Najib and the party’s actions in Negeri Sembilan - where it benefits from one royal prerogative while resisting another - raise questions about the consistency of its position when political interests are at stake.
纳吉布的有条件赦免如何可能损害巫统？该党近期的复兴势头，正是建立在其根深蒂固的党内组织体系之上——包括各分支网络、分区负责人、妇女和青年翼等，这是任何其他政治力量都无法比拟的。
HOW NAJIB CONDITIONAL PARDON COULD HURT UMNO’s recent resurgence has been built on momentum delivered by its deep-rooted party machinery - made up of branch networks, divisional chiefs, the women’s and the youth wings - that no other political entity can match.
然而，多年来，腐败丑闻已经对其信誉和品牌形象造成了打击。正是在这样的背景下，纳吉布于9月18日获得了有条件赦免。
Yet its credibility and brand have been hit by graft scandals over the years. It is against this backdrop, that Najib's conditional pardon surfaced on Sep 18.
巫统长期以来一直为纳吉布的自由奔走，该党也素有支持陷入困境的领导人这一历史。但这一次，该党发现，他争取软禁的尝试重新揭开了巫统多年来试图掩盖的1MDB旧伤。
UMNO has long fought for Najib’s freedom, and the party has a storied history of standing behind troubled leaders. This time round, the party is discovering that his bid for house arrest has reopened the 1MDB wound UMNO has spent years trying to bury.
巫统为支付纳吉5000万林吉特罚款而发起的筹款活动，既获得了支持，也招致了嘲讽。自活动启动以来，已筹集到超过925万林吉特，但当地媒体报道称，也有人以“一仙”的抗议性捐款回应——这一轻蔑举动凸显了居家监禁的决定如何将1MDB问题再次推至下一轮政治议题的焦点。
UMNO’s fundraising drive to settle Najib's RM50 million fine has attracted both support and scorn. Apart from raising over RM9.25 million since it was launched, local media have reported that the drive was met with one-sen protest donations - a gesture of contempt that underscored how the house-arrest decision has dragged the 1MDB issue back to the top of the next cycle.
此举可能导致巫统失去那些原本摇摆不定、已转向其他马来族政党的支持者，例如人民公正党（PKR）和土著团结党（Bersatu）。每当对纳吉表现出宽容，这个曾导致该党在2018年下台的腐败丑闻，就会再次成为全国讨论的核心。
This could cost UMNO its fence-sitters that drifted to the other Malay-based parties, such as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). With each leniency shown to Najib, the corruption scandal that kicked the party out of power in 2018 keeps returning to the centre of national discourse.
马来西亚国王同意对已入狱的前总理纳吉·拉扎克实施有条件赦免，允许他在居家监禁中服完剩余刑期。这一决定对巫统而言，已成为一把双刃剑。
Malaysia's King agreed to a conditional pardon for the jailed former prime minister Najib Razak to serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest, a development that has turned into a double-edged sword for UMNO.
巫统在雪兰莪州的危机 雪兰莪州的危机不仅更为复杂，而且对巫统本已摇摇欲坠的政治地位构成了更直接的威胁。
UMNO’S NEGERI SEMBILAN STORM The Negeri Sembilan storm is not only more complicated, but it also presents a more immediate danger to UMNO’s still wobbly political standing.
马来西亚的君主立宪制独具特色：国王由统治者会议从九个世袭王室中选出，任期为五年。
Malaysia’s constitutional monarchy is unique, where the king is elected for a five-year term by the Conference of Rulers from among nine hereditary royal houses.
所有王室均遵循普通的世袭规则，唯独雪兰莪州例外。该州沿用了源自西苏门答腊、由米南加保移民带入的数百年历史的母系法律传统，即“adat perpatih”。
All follow ordinary hereditary rules, with the exception of Negeri Sembilan, which operates under a centuries-old West Sumatra matrilineal legal tradition that was brought by Minangkabau migrants known as adat perpatih.
根据这一传统，该州王室的家主——被称为“Yang di-Pertuan Besar”（而非其他州那样的苏丹）——由四位被称为“undang”的地方首领通过共识选举产生。
Under this tradition, the ruler of the state’s royal household, referred to as the Yang di-Pertuan Besar (not Sultans like the other states) is elected by consensus of four territorial chiefs, known as undangs.
这场危机始于今年4月，当时四位“undang”宣布罢免Tuanku Muhriz，理由是他干涉了传统事务，并拥立其远房表亲Tunku Nadzaruddin Tuanku Ja’afar为代理统治者。
The crisis began in April when the four undangs proclaimed the removal of Tuanku Muhriz, citing what they called as interference in customary affairs and installed a distant cousin Tunku Nadzaruddin Tuanku Ja’afar as the acting ruler.
端姑·慕里兹拒绝了这一举动，因为该公告未获得当时州宪法所要求的现任首席部长（即州务大臣）的批准。这场宫廷危机很快变成了一个棘手的政治问题。
Tuanku Muhriz rebuffed the move, because the proclamation did not receive the endorsement of the sitting chief minister, or Menteri Besar, at the time as required by the state’s constitution. Quickly the palace crisis became a political hot potato.
森美兰州统治者端姑·慕里兹·端姑·穆纳威，他是该州巫统分部宪法危机焦点的统治者。（照片：Facebook/Dato' Seri Utama Haji Aminuddin Harun）巫统的14名州议员撤回了对安瓦尔先生的希望联盟所领导的森美兰州团结政府的支持，从而引发了州议会提前选举。巫统成功以“该党了解独特的州风俗习惯，若当选领导州政府就能轻松解决宫廷纷争”为竞选纲领。
Negeri Sembilan ruler Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir, the ruler in the spotlight of a constitutional crisis in the state's UMNO chapter. (Photo: Facebook/Dato' Seri Utama Haji Aminuddin Harun) UMNO’s 14 assemblymen withdrew their support from the unity Negeri Sembilan administration led by Mr Anwar's PH coalition to trigger a snap state poll. UMNO successfully campaigned on a platform that the party understood the unique state customs and could easily resolve the palace imbroglio if elected to lead the state government.
在8月1日的州选中，由巫统领导的国民阵线与一个名为国民联盟的马来人政党联盟结盟，并在拥有36个席位的州议会中赢得了三分之二多数席位。巫统的伊斯迈·拉辛在端姑·慕里兹面前宣誓就任新任州务大臣。局势如何走向恶化 随后，情况变得一团糟。
During the August 1 state polls, the UMNO-led BN formed a pact with a Malay-based coalition known as Perikatan Nasional and won a two-thirds majority in the 36-seat state assembly. UMNO’s Ismail Lasim was sworn in before Tuanku Muhriz as the new Menteri Besar. HOW THE SITUATION TURNED UGLY Then things turned messy.
据报道，伊斯迈先生在掌权几天后，被悄悄带去与巫统高层领导人举行秘密会议，他在会上签署了废黜他刚刚宣誓效忠的统治者的文件。然而，这份文件被隐瞒了一个多月，直到9月才浮出水面。
Within days of taking power, Mr Ismail was reportedly spirited to a secret meeting with senior UMNO leaders where he signed away the ruler that he had just sworn allegiance to. That document, however, stayed hidden for over a month and only surfaced in September.
当伊斯迈先生首次受到质问时，他声称自己是在胁迫下签署该公告的，随后又出尔反尔，转而支持该公告。三名巫统高级领导人也反驳了他们曾出席该会议的说法。
When Mr Ismail was first confronted, he claimed that he had signed the proclamation under duress, before flipflopping to endorse the proclamation. Three UMNO top leaders have also refuted claims that they attended the meeting.
端姑·慕里兹予以回击，撤销了州政府所有10名行政议员的职务，因为他们违反了效忠誓言。
Tuanku Muhriz fired back and revoked the appointments of all 10 exco members in the state administration for breaching their oath of allegiance.
最近几天，安瓦尔先生猛烈抨击森美兰州巫统分部对王室的不服从态度。巫统主席扎希德也已要求伊斯迈先生觐见统治者和四大酋长，以解决当前局势。
In recent days, Mr Anwar has hit out at the Negeri Sembilan UMNO chapter for their recalcitrance toward the royal household. UMNO president Zahid has also asked Mr Ismail to seek an audience with the ruler and undangs to resolve the situation.
与此同时，马来西亚警方已对10名执行委员会成员的行为展开调查，这意味着他们可能因与雪兰莪州王室的对峙而面临刑事指控。
Meanwhile, the Malaysian police have opened an investigation into the conduct of the 10 exco members, raising the prospect that criminal charges could follow over the face off with the royal household in Negeri Sembilan.
此举的实际后果是，一场旨在恢复秩序的州选举，反而导致该州出现了两个相互对立的权力中心，而巫统（UMNO）则因与王室对抗而背上了骂名。巫统能否从这些失误中恢复过来尚不明确。
The net effect here is that a state election that was meant to restore order has produced a state with two rival power centres and with UMNO carrying the can of pitting itself against the royal household. Whether UMNO can bounce back from these missteps is unclear.
它已不再掌控马来族选民的大多数支持。纳吉布对软禁的宽恕政策加剧了腐败的污名，而雪兰莪州与王室的僵持局面也在削弱其作为君主制捍卫者的形象。
It no longer owns the majority of the Malay vote. Najib’s clemency for house arrest has raised the corruption stain and the royal standoff in Negeri Sembilan is chipping away at its credentials as the defender of the monarchy.
9月发生的一系列事件表明，巫统距离完成政治复兴还有很长的路要走。
One thing the events in September have shown is that UMNO has a long way to go before it can complete a political comeback.